Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Christian Kirksey became a 9-season, 114-game NFL player after going #71. The retained-value model still ranks him 7th of 18 for Ray Farmer because CLE only got 73 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.43. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ray Farmer's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
73
on drafting team · 114 full-career
Games started
54
on drafting team · 94 full-career
Snap-z
6.1
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
27
modeled; full weighted AV 40
AV / 1k snaps
5.7
4,773 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ray Farmer's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ray Farmer pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Christian Kirksey totals -0.43. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationChristian KirkseyGM total -8.1Christian Kirksey by season -0.5
How much retained production did Christian Kirksey return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Christian Kirksey since 2010 (21 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Christian KirkseySlot-similar peers (21)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2014
CLE
16
15
938
1.4
5
5.3
2015
CLE
16
14
782
1.0
3
3.8
2016
CLE
16
16
1,287
2.5
7
5.4
2017
CLE
16
16
1,153
2.2
7
6.1
2018
CLE
7
6
493
0.1
4
8.1
2019
CLE
2
2
120
-1.0
1
8.3
2020
GB
11
8
590
0.5
6
10.2
2021
HOU
13
12
820
1.3
5
6.1
2022
HOU
17
17
1,145
2.1
9
7.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
