Excellent+7.01 contribution1st of 18 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Joel Bitonio was Ray Farmer's 1st-best of 18 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +7.01. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ray Farmer's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
178
on drafting team
Games started
178
on drafting team
Snap-z
13.1
12 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
93
modeled; full weighted AV 75
AV / 1k snaps
7.5
12,437 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
7
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
2 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 3
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ray Farmer's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ray Farmer pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Joel Bitonio totals +7.01. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJoel BitonioGM total -8.1Joel Bitonio by season +16.2
How much retained production did Joel Bitonio return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Joel Bitonio since 2010 (7 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Joel BitonioSlot-similar peers (7)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2014
CLE
16
16
1,117
1.2
6
5.4
2015
CLE
10
9
647
0.0
4
6.2
2016
CLE
5
5
349
-0.6
2
5.7
2017
CLE
16
16
1,114
1.3
6
5.4
2018
CLE
16
16
1,151
1.6
11
9.6
✓
·
2019
CLE
16
16
1,107
1.2
11
9.9
✓
·
2020
CLE
16
16
1,118
1.5
11
9.8
✓
·
2021
CLE
17
17
1,168
1.5
14
12.0
✓
★
2022
CLE
17
17
1,215
1.5
12
9.9
✓
★
2023
CLE
15
14
1,098
1.3
7
6.4
✓
2024
CLE
17
17
1,220
1.5
5
4.1
✓
2025
CLE
17
17
1,133
1.4
4
3.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
