Terrible-5.38 contribution35th of 35 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Stephon Gilmore became a 13-season, 180-game NFL player after going #10. The retained-value model still ranks him 35th of 35 for Buddy Nix because BUF only got 68 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -5.38. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Buddy Nix's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
68
on drafting team · 180 full-career
Games started
66
on drafting team · 173 full-career
Snap-z
4.0
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
25
modeled; full weighted AV 75
AV / 1k snaps
5.7
3,506 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
5 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
2 full-career · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Buddy Nix's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Buddy Nix pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Stephon Gilmore totals -5.38. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationStephon GilmoreGM total -11.2Stephon Gilmore by season -11.7
How much retained production did Stephon Gilmore return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Stephon Gilmore since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Stephon GilmoreSlot-similar peers (14)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
BUF
16
16
—
—
5
—
2013
BUF
11
10
717
0.4
3
4.2
2014
BUF
14
14
890
1.1
5
5.6
2015
BUF
12
11
845
0.9
5
5.9
2016
BUF
15
15
1,054
1.6
7
6.6
✓
2017
NE
13
13
848
1.0
5
5.9
2018
NE
16
16
1,015
1.6
15
14.8
2019
NE
16
16
952
1.5
22
23.1
2020
NE
11
10
632
0.6
7
11.1
2021
CAR
8
5
321
-0.3
5
15.6
2022
IND
16
16
1,064
1.7
5
4.7
2023
DAL
17
17
1,002
1.6
4
4.0
2024
MIN
15
14
864
1.2
6
6.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
