Lance Smith · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Lance Smith across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played182

Games started165

Weighted career AV61

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons12

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

1985 · Round 3 · #72

ARI draft credit

GM Bill Bidwill

Team games140

Team starts129

On-team AV62

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Excellent+1.68 contribution9th of 105 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Lance Smith was Bill Bidwill's 9th-best of 105 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.68. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bill Bidwill's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

140

on drafting team · 182 full-career

Games started

129

on drafting team · 165 full-career

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 61

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Bill Bidwill's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Bill Bidwill pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lance Smith totals +1.68. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationLance SmithGM total -44.0Lance Smith by season +2.5

How much retained production did Lance Smith return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Lance Smith since 2010 (10 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Lance SmithSlot-similar peers (10)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
1985	ARI	14	5	—	—	3	—
1986	ARI	15	13	—	—	5	—
1987	ARI	15	15	—	—	12	—
1988	ARI	16	16	—	—	8	—
1989	ARI	16	16	—	—	6	—
1990	ARI	16	16	—	—	7	—
1991	ARI	16	16	—	—	5	—
1992	ARI	16	16	—	—	7	—
1993	ARI	16	16	—	—	9	—
1994	NYG	13	13	—	—	6	—
1995	NYG	13	13	—	—	6	—
1996	NYG	16	10	—	—	4	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.