All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Tom Carter across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 118
Games started 98
Weighted career AV 35
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 9
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 62
Team starts 59
On-team AV 25
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Bad -0.74 contribution 52nd of 66 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Tom Carter became a 9-season, 118-game NFL player after going #17. The retained-value model still ranks him 52nd of 66 for Charley Casserly because WAS only got 62 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.74 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Charley Casserly's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
62
on drafting team · 118 full-career
Games started
59
on drafting team · 98 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
25
modeled; full weighted AV 35
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Charley Casserly's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Charley Casserly pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Tom Carter totals -0.74 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 102. Davis #102 · Stephen Davis · aggregate +2.24 Davis +2.2 97. Patton #97 · Joe Patton · aggregate +1.94 37. Jansen #37 · Jon Jansen · aggregate +1.80 115. Connell #115 · Albert Connell · aggregate +1.64 101. Palmer #101 · Sterling Palmer · aggregate +1.54 137. Asher #137 · Jamie Asher · aggregate +1.51 138. Evans #138 · Leomont Evans · aggregate +1.41 155. Morrison #155 · Darryl Morrison · aggregate +1.27 76. Ervins #76 · Ricky Ervins · aggregate +1.18 191. Terrell #191 · David Terrell · aggregate +1.13 31. Johnson #31 · Tre' Johnson · aggregate +0.78 163. Nottage #163 · Dexter Nottage · aggregate +0.78 130. Mitchell #130 · Brian Mitchell · aggregate +0.73 174. Kinney #174 · Kelvin Kinney · aggregate +0.56 152. Owens #152 · Rich Owens · aggregate +0.45 51. Jones #51 · Greg Jones · aggregate +0.33 181. Hall #181 · Jeff Hall · aggregate +0.33 68. Pounds #68 · Darryl Pounds · aggregate +0.26 140. Fischer #140 · Mark Fischer · aggregate +0.25 132. Williams #132 · Jamel Williams · aggregate +0.22 46. Collins #46 · Andre Collins · aggregate +0.18 45. Brooks #45 · Reggie Brooks · aggregate +0.07 250. Maxwell #250 · DeAndre Maxwell · aggregate +0.05 69. Hicks #69 · Skip Hicks · aggregate +0.02 168. Rowe #168 · Ray Rowe · aggregate -0.01 140. Thibodeaux #140 · Keith Thibodeaux · aggregate -0.03 217. Alexander #217 · Tim Alexander · aggregate -0.04 4. Westbrook #4 · Michael Westbrook · aggregate -0.05 112. Hakel #112 · Chris Hakel · aggregate -0.06 196. Holmes #196 · Calvin Holmes · aggregate -0.09 159. Ransom #159 · Dennis Ransom · aggregate -0.10 17. Wilson #17 · Bobby Wilson · aggregate -0.18 170. Palmer #170 · Patrick Palmer · aggregate -0.18 47. Collins #47 · Shane Collins · aggregate -0.19 206. Ponds #206 · Antwaune Ponds · aggregate -0.19 80. Bunn #80 · Ed Bunn · aggregate -0.19 215. Asher #215 · Jeremy Asher · aggregate -0.21 160. Wells #160 · Kent Wells · aggregate -0.22 48. Alexander #48 · Stephen Alexander · aggregate -0.24 105. Haws #105 · Kurt Haws · aggregate -0.25 68. Winans #68 · Tydus Winans · aggregate -0.29 176. Thure #176 · Brian Thure · aggregate -0.32 188. Cash #188 · Keith Cash · aggregate -0.35 76. Elewonibi #76 · Mohammed Elewonibi · aggregate -0.40 165. Smith #165 · Derek Smith · aggregate -0.40 109. Labbe #109 · Rico Labbe · aggregate -0.47 86. Conklin #86 · Cary Conklin · aggregate -0.47 103. Jones #103 · Larry Jones · aggregate -0.50 107. Stimson #107 · Nate Stimson · aggregate -0.63 71. Hamilton #71 · Rick Hamilton · aggregate -0.66 37. Raymer #37 · Cory Raymer · aggregate -0.71 17. Carter #17 · Tom Carter · aggregate -0.74 Carter -0.7 148. Russell #148 · Twan Russell · aggregate -0.75 113. Barber #113 · Shawn Barber · aggregate -0.77 128. Huntington #128 · Greg Huntington · aggregate -0.78 226. Turner #226 · Scott Turner · aggregate -0.85 17. Lang #17 · Kenard Lang · aggregate -0.92 74. Siever #74 · Paul Siever · aggregate -0.93 80. Smith #80 · Derek Smith · aggregate -1.13 3. Shuler #3 · Heath Shuler · aggregate -1.36 197. Frerotte #197 · Gus Frerotte · aggregate -1.46 30. Johnson #30 · Andre Johnson · aggregate -1.47 162. Badger #162 · Brad Badger · aggregate -1.64 160. Wycheck #160 · Frank Wycheck · aggregate -2.21 Wycheck -2.2 7. Bailey #7 · Champ Bailey · aggregate -3.45 Bailey -3.5 4. Howard #4 · Desmond Howard · aggregate -4.86 Howard -4.9 Incremental contribution by season -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 1990 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.12 1990 · Cary Conklin · incremental -0.02 1990 · Mohammed Elewonibi · incremental -0.06 1990 · Kent Wells · incremental -0.44 1990 · Andre Collins · incremental -0.54 1990 · Rico Labbe · incremental -0.83 1991 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.12 1991 · Andre Collins · incremental +0.17 1991 · Ricky Ervins · incremental +0.42 1991 · Bobby Wilson · incremental -0.06 1991 · Dennis Ransom · incremental -0.38 1991 · Keith Cash · incremental -0.77 1992 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.12 1992 · Andre Collins · incremental +0.15 1992 · Ricky Ervins · incremental +0.41 1992 · Bobby Wilson · incremental -0.04 1992 · Cary Conklin · incremental -0.07 1992 · Ray Rowe · incremental -0.13 1992 · Chris Hakel · incremental -0.14 1992 · Mohammed Elewonibi · incremental -0.16 1992 · Shane Collins · incremental -0.16 1992 · Calvin Holmes · incremental -0.25 1992 · Paul Siever · incremental -1.51 1992 · Desmond Howard · incremental -3.49 1993 · Reggie Brooks · incremental +0.01 1993 · Darryl Morrison · incremental +0.04 1993 · Andre Collins · incremental +0.13 1993 · Ricky Ervins · incremental +0.28 1993 · Sterling Palmer · incremental +0.56 1993 · Bobby Wilson · incremental -0.06 1993 · Ray Rowe · incremental -0.08 1993 · Shane Collins · incremental -0.11 1993 · Brian Mitchell · incremental -0.26 1993 · Mohammed Elewonibi · incremental -0.46 1993 · Ed Bunn · incremental -0.48 1993 · Cary Conklin · incremental -0.66 1993 · Tom Carter · incremental -0.77 1993 · Rick Hamilton · incremental -1.00 1993 · Desmond Howard · incremental -1.23 1993 · Greg Huntington · incremental -1.25 1993 · Frank Wycheck · incremental -2.71 1994 · Joe Patton · incremental +0.00 1994 · Reggie Brooks · incremental +0.02 1994 · Andre Collins · incremental +0.17 1994 · Dexter Nottage · incremental +0.36 1994 · Ricky Ervins · incremental +0.51 1994 · Sterling Palmer · incremental +0.83 1994 · Darryl Morrison · incremental +0.94 1994 · Shane Collins · incremental -0.01 1994 · Rick Hamilton · incremental -0.02 1994 · Bobby Wilson · incremental -0.07 1994 · Tom Carter · incremental -0.11 1994 · Tydus Winans · incremental -0.16 1994 · Tre' Johnson · incremental -0.43 1994 · Gus Frerotte · incremental -0.43 1994 · Brian Mitchell · incremental -0.56 1994 · Kurt Haws · incremental -0.59 1994 · Frank Wycheck · incremental -0.76 1994 · Heath Shuler · incremental -1.10 1994 · Desmond Howard · incremental -2.94 1995 · Rich Owens · incremental +0.01 1995 · Darryl Pounds · incremental +0.06 1995 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.16 1995 · Jamie Asher · incremental +0.24 1995 · Darryl Morrison · incremental +0.30 1995 · Dexter Nottage · incremental +0.36 1995 · Joe Patton · incremental +0.72 1995 · Sterling Palmer · incremental +0.72 1995 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +2.01 1995 · Reggie Brooks · incremental -0.00 1995 · Tom Carter · incremental -0.13 1995 · Tydus Winans · incremental -0.33 1995 · Gus Frerotte · incremental -0.55 1995 · Brian Thure · incremental -0.56 1995 · Michael Westbrook · incremental -0.68 1995 · Heath Shuler · incremental -0.71 1995 · Larry Jones · incremental -0.84 1995 · Scott Turner · incremental -0.88 1995 · Cory Raymer · incremental -1.06 1996 · Darryl Pounds · incremental +0.06 1996 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.07 1996 · Leomont Evans · incremental +0.23 1996 · Sterling Palmer · incremental +0.28 1996 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.29 1996 · Rich Owens · incremental +0.31 1996 · Dexter Nottage · incremental +0.52 1996 · Darryl Morrison · incremental +0.73 1996 · Jamie Asher · incremental +0.85 1996 · Joe Patton · incremental +0.86 1996 · Kelvin Kinney · incremental -0.01 1996 · Heath Shuler · incremental -0.01 1996 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.02 1996 · Brian Mitchell · incremental -0.08 1996 · Tom Carter · incremental -0.13 1996 · Stephen Davis · incremental -0.14 1996 · Scott Turner · incremental -0.26 1996 · Jeremy Asher · incremental -0.40 1996 · Gus Frerotte · incremental -0.71 1996 · Andre Johnson · incremental -2.31 1997 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.00 1997 · Greg Jones · incremental +0.07 1997 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.09 1997 · Jamel Williams · incremental +0.10 1997 · Kelvin Kinney · incremental +0.10 1997 · Albert Connell · incremental +0.12 1997 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.19 1997 · Darryl Pounds · incremental +0.21 1997 · Stephen Davis · incremental +0.23 1997 · Rich Owens · incremental +0.30 1997 · Leomont Evans · incremental +0.32 1997 · Jamie Asher · incremental +0.76 1997 · Joe Patton · incremental +0.81 1997 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.01 1997 · Keith Thibodeaux · incremental -0.11 1997 · Scott Turner · incremental -0.13 1997 · Gus Frerotte · incremental -0.54 1997 · Brad Badger · incremental -0.56 1997 · Twan Russell · incremental -0.84 1997 · Kenard Lang · incremental -0.88 1997 · Derek Smith · incremental -1.12 1998 · Mark Fischer · incremental +0.01 1998 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.08 1998 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.11 1998 · Greg Jones · incremental +0.17 1998 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.18 1998 · Jamel Williams · incremental +0.22 1998 · Stephen Davis · incremental +0.28 1998 · Jamie Asher · incremental +0.41 1998 · Albert Connell · incremental +0.48 1998 · Joe Patton · incremental +0.55 1998 · Kelvin Kinney · incremental +0.70 1998 · Leomont Evans · incremental +0.85 1998 · Twan Russell · incremental -0.03 1998 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.03 1998 · David Terrell · incremental -0.04 1998 · Skip Hicks · incremental -0.04 1998 · Darryl Pounds · incremental -0.09 1998 · Gus Frerotte · incremental -0.09 1998 · Kenard Lang · incremental -0.19 1998 · Derek Smith · incremental -0.25 1998 · Stephen Alexander · incremental -0.33 1998 · Patrick Palmer · incremental -0.36 1998 · Antwaune Ponds · incremental -0.37 1998 · Shawn Barber · incremental -0.47 1998 · Brad Badger · incremental -1.33 1999 · Skip Hicks · incremental +0.02 1999 · Jamel Williams · incremental +0.04 1999 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.11 1999 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.13 1999 · Greg Jones · incremental +0.20 1999 · Darryl Pounds · incremental +0.21 1999 · Jeff Hall · incremental +0.31 1999 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.40 1999 · Leomont Evans · incremental +0.84 1999 · Albert Connell · incremental +1.02 1999 · Stephen Davis · incremental +1.36 1999 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.05 1999 · Tim Alexander · incremental -0.13 1999 · Kenard Lang · incremental -0.13 1999 · Stephen Alexander · incremental -0.23 1999 · Derek Smith · incremental -0.25 1999 · Twan Russell · incremental -0.26 1999 · Shawn Barber · incremental -0.35 1999 · Brad Badger · incremental -0.58 1999 · Jon Jansen · incremental -0.58 1999 · Derek Smith · incremental -0.71 1999 · Nate Stimson · incremental -1.06 1999 · Champ Bailey · incremental -4.36 2000 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.02 2000 · Skip Hicks · incremental +0.02 2000 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.07 2000 · Greg Jones · incremental +0.17 2000 · David Terrell · incremental +0.26 2000 · Mark Fischer · incremental +0.37 2000 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.46 2000 · Stephen Alexander · incremental +0.57 2000 · Albert Connell · incremental +0.76 2000 · Stephen Davis · incremental +1.33 2000 · Kenard Lang · incremental -0.05 2000 · Derek Smith · incremental -0.26 2000 · Shawn Barber · incremental -0.35 2000 · Champ Bailey · incremental -0.48 2001 · Michael Westbrook · incremental +0.12 2001 · Stephen Davis · incremental +0.43 2001 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.45 2001 · David Terrell · incremental +0.68 2001 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.03 2001 · Shawn Barber · incremental -0.06 2001 · Stephen Alexander · incremental -0.09 2001 · Kenard Lang · incremental -0.22 2001 · Champ Bailey · incremental -0.37 2002 · Tre' Johnson · incremental +0.10 2002 · Stephen Davis · incremental +0.28 2002 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.45 2002 · David Terrell · incremental +0.68 2002 · Champ Bailey · incremental -0.37 2003 · David Terrell · incremental +0.19 2003 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.45 2003 · Champ Bailey · incremental -0.37 2004 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.02 2005 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.55 2005 · Cory Raymer · incremental -0.00 2006 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.44 2007 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.02 2008 · Jon Jansen · incremental +0.32 Siever -1.5 Howard -3.5 Carter -0.8 Wycheck -2.7 Carter -0.1 Howard -2.9 Mitchell +2.0 Carter -0.1 Carter -0.1 Johnson -2.3 Bailey -4.4 1990 6 players 1991 6 players 1992 12 players 1993 17 players 1994 19 players 1995 19 players 1996 20 players 1997 21 players 1998 25 players 1999 23 players 2000 14 players 2001 9 players 2002 5 players 2003 3 players 2004 1 player 2005 2 players 2006 1 player 2007 1 player 2008 1 player
How much retained production did Tom Carter return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Tom Carter since 2010 (13 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 +1.5 +2 Model value above slot 14. Thomas Earl Thomas · model value +2.5 +2.5 17. Gonzalez Christian Gonzalez · model value +1.3 14. Fuller Kyle Fuller · model value +0.5 18. Reid Eric Reid · model value +0.2 18. Pryor Calvin Pryor · model value -0.1 22. Trufant Desmond Trufant · model value -0.1 21. Clinton-Dix Ha Ha Clinton-Dix · model value -0.1 17. Carter Tom Carter · model value -0.3 -0.3 15. Vaccaro Kenny Vaccaro · model value -0.4 17. Kirkpatrick Dre Kirkpatrick · model value -0.6 19. Amukamara Prince Amukamara · model value -0.7 22. Farley Caleb Farley · model value -0.7 20. Jackson Kareem Jackson · model value -0.8 12. Hayden D.J. Hayden · model value -1.6 Tom Carter
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'94 '96 '98 '00 '01 0 25 49 74 98 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.