Terrible-3.61 contribution46th of 47 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Aqib Talib became a 12-season, 148-game NFL player after going #20. The retained-value model still ranks him 46th of 47 for Bruce Allen because TB only got 58 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.61. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bruce Allen's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
58
on drafting team · 148 full-career
Games started
45
on drafting team · 134 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
21
modeled; full weighted AV 68
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
5 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
1 full-career · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bruce Allen's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bruce Allen pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Aqib Talib totals -3.61. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAqib TalibGM total -13.0Aqib Talib by season -6.0
How much retained production did Aqib Talib return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Aqib Talib since 2010 (15 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Aqib TalibSlot-similar peers (15)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2008
TB
15
2
—
—
3
—
2009
TB
15
15
—
—
6
—
2010
TB
11
11
—
—
6
—
2011
TB
13
13
—
—
4
—
2012
NE, TB
10
9
—
—
4
—
2013
NE
13
13
862
0.8
12
13.9
2014
DEN
15
14
918
1.2
9
9.8
2015
DEN
15
15
1,029
1.4
10
9.7
2016
DEN
13
13
919
1.2
15
16.3
2017
DEN
15
13
778
0.8
9
11.6
2018
LAR
8
7
388
-0.2
3
7.7
2019
LAR
5
5
334
-0.4
2
6.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
