Terrible-7.29 contribution42nd of 42 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Alex Smith became a 16-season, 174-game NFL player after going #1. The retained-value model still ranks him 42nd of 42 for Scot McCloughan because SF only got 80 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -7.29. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Scot McCloughan's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
80
on drafting team · 174 full-career
Games started
75
on drafting team · 167 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
40
modeled; full weighted AV 98
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
3 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Scot McCloughan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Scot McCloughan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Alex Smith totals -7.29. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAlex SmithGM total -3.4Alex Smith by season -12.3
How much retained production did Alex Smith return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Alex Smith since 2010 (27 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Alex SmithSlot-similar peers (27)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (16 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2005
SF
9
7
—
—
0
—
2006
SF
16
16
—
—
10
—
2007
SF
7
7
—
—
0
—
2008
—
0
0
—
—
0
—
2009
SF
11
10
—
—
7
—
2010
SF
11
10
—
—
6
—
2011
SF
16
16
—
—
13
—
2012
SF
10
9
—
—
7
—
2013
KC
15
15
978
1.2
14
14.3
2014
KC
15
15
940
1.1
14
14.9
2015
KC
16
16
989
1.3
16
16.2
2016
KC
15
14
915
1.0
12
13.1
2017
KC
15
15
961
1.2
17
17.7
2018
WAS
10
10
651
0.4
6
9.2
2019
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2020
WAS
8
8
459
0.1
1
2.2
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
