Terrible-4.15 contribution41st of 42 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Terrible pick
Vernon Davis was Scot McCloughan's 41st-best of 42 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.15. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Scot McCloughan's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
139
on drafting team · 198 full-career
Games started
136
on drafting team · 179 full-career
Snap-z
2.3
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
51
modeled; full weighted AV 51
AV / 1k snaps
6.1
1,969 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Scot McCloughan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Scot McCloughan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Vernon Davis totals -4.15. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationVernon DavisGM total -3.4Vernon Davis by season -8.4
How much retained production did Vernon Davis return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Vernon Davis since 2010 (4 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Vernon DavisSlot-similar peers (4)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (14 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2006
SF
10
8
—
—
3
—
2007
SF
14
14
—
—
4
—
2008
SF
16
16
—
—
3
—
2009
SF
16
16
—
—
9
—
✓
2010
SF
16
16
—
—
7
—
2011
SF
16
16
—
—
8
—
2012
SF
16
16
—
—
5
—
2013
SF
15
14
811
1.3
9
11.1
·
2014
SF
14
14
831
1.3
2
2.4
2015
DEN, SF
15
10
618
-0.8
2
3.2
2016
WAS
16
11
680
1.0
5
7.4
2017
WAS
16
14
802
1.3
5
6.2
2018
WAS
14
5
447
0.1
3
6.7
2019
WAS
4
4
186
-0.7
1
5.4
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
