Excellent+2.07 contribution1st of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
LeSean McCoy was Tom Heckert's 1st-best of 34 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +2.07. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Heckert's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
90
on drafting team · 170 full-career
Games started
76
on drafting team · 141 full-career
Snap-z
4.8
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
61
modeled; full weighted AV 83
AV / 1k snaps
14.0
1,646 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
6 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
2 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
1
context only
Did this pick move Tom Heckert's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Heckert pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. LeSean McCoy totals +2.07. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLeSean McCoyGM total -10.3LeSean McCoy by season +4.2
How much retained production did LeSean McCoy return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: RBs drafted within ±5 picks of LeSean McCoy since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
LeSean McCoySlot-similar peers (16)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2009
PHI
16
4
—
—
8
—
2010
PHI
15
13
—
—
13
—
2011
PHI
15
15
—
—
10
—
✓
★
2012
PHI
12
12
—
—
7
—
2013
PHI
16
16
872
2.6
15
17.2
★
2014
PHI
16
16
774
2.2
8
10.3
2015
BUF
12
11
599
1.7
9
15.0
2016
BUF
15
12
646
1.8
13
20.1
2017
BUF
16
15
719
2.1
11
15.3
2018
BUF
14
10
490
1.0
4
8.2
2019
KC
13
0
295
-0.0
5
16.9
2020
TB
10
0
116
-0.7
1
8.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
