Terrible-1.60 contribution33rd of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
DeSean Jackson became a 15-season, 183-game NFL player after going #49. The retained-value model still ranks him 33rd of 34 for Tom Heckert because PHI only got 95 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.60. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Heckert's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
95
on drafting team · 183 full-career
Games started
94
on drafting team · 159 full-career
Snap-z
0.1
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
61
modeled; full weighted AV 75
AV / 1k snaps
11.0
1,274 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
2
3 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Tom Heckert's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Heckert pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. DeSean Jackson totals -1.60. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationDeSean JacksonGM total -10.3DeSean Jackson by season -4.0
How much retained production did DeSean Jackson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of DeSean Jackson since 2010 (20 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
DeSean JacksonSlot-similar peers (20)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (15 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2008
PHI
16
15
—
—
9
—
2009
PHI
15
15
—
—
14
—
✓
·
2010
PHI
14
14
—
—
11
—
✓
2011
PHI
15
15
—
—
8
—
2012
PHI
11
11
—
—
5
—
2013
PHI
16
16
1,028
1.8
11
10.7
2014
WAS
15
14
758
1.0
8
10.6
2015
WAS
9
7
364
-0.2
4
11.0
2016
WAS
15
13
706
0.8
8
11.3
2017
TB
14
12
609
0.6
5
8.2
2018
TB
12
7
461
0.3
6
13.0
2019
PHI
3
1
65
-1.1
1
15.4
2020
PHI
5
2
181
-0.7
2
11.0
2021
LAR, LV
16
2
305
-1.4
4
13.1
2022
BAL
7
0
110
-0.8
2
18.2
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
