Good+0.10 contribution11th of 32 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Good pick
Dontari Poe was Scott Pioli's 11th-best of 32 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.10. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Scott Pioli's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
78
on drafting team · 128 full-career
Games started
76
on drafting team · 125 full-career
Snap-z
8.7
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
45
modeled; full weighted AV 55
AV / 1k snaps
10.5
3,728 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Scott Pioli's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Scott Pioli pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Dontari Poe totals +0.10. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationDontari PoeGM total -2.5Dontari Poe by season +0.8
How much retained production did Dontari Poe return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Dontari Poe since 2010 (17 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Dontari PoeSlot-similar peers (17)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
KC
16
16
—
—
6
—
2013
KC
15
15
1,031
2.6
13
12.6
·
2014
KC
16
16
1,009
2.5
12
11.9
2015
KC
15
13
804
1.7
7
8.7
2016
KC
16
15
884
1.9
7
7.9
2017
ATL
16
16
861
1.8
7
8.1
2018
CAR
16
10
538
0.4
6
11.2
2019
CAR
11
7
466
-0.1
4
8.6
2020
DAL
7
2
316
-0.2
3
9.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
