Terrible-4.21 contribution24th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Bryan Anger became a 14-season, 227-game NFL player after going #70. The retained-value model still ranks him 24th of 26 for Gene Smith because JAX only got 64 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.21. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Gene Smith's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
64
on drafting team · 227 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
12
modeled; full weighted AV 25
AV / 1k snaps
20.1
448 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Gene Smith's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Gene Smith pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Bryan Anger totals -4.21. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationBryan AngerGM total -19.7Bryan Anger by season -8.4
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (14 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
JAX
16
0
—
—
3
—
2013
JAX
16
0
146
—
3
20.5
2014
JAX
16
0
150
—
3
20.0
2015
JAX
16
0
152
—
3
19.7
2016
TB
16
0
137
—
2
14.6
2017
TB
16
0
133
—
1
7.5
2018
TB
16
0
132
—
2
15.2
2019
HOU
14
0
115
-0.3
2
17.4
2020
HOU
16
0
136
0.2
2
14.7
2021
DAL
17
0
157
0.8
3
19.1
2022
DAL
17
0
155
—
3
19.4
2023
DAL
17
0
136
0.1
2
14.7
2024
DAL
17
0
143
—
3
21.0
2025
DAL
17
0
134
—
2
14.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
