Terrible-4.96 contribution25th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Tyson Alualu became a 14-season, 193-game NFL player after going #10. The retained-value model still ranks him 25th of 26 for Gene Smith because JAX only got 110 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.96. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Gene Smith's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
110
on drafting team · 193 full-career
Games started
87
on drafting team · 114 full-career
Snap-z
4.2
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
38
modeled; full weighted AV 45
AV / 1k snaps
6.0
3,002 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Gene Smith's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Gene Smith pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Tyson Alualu totals -4.96. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationTyson AlualuGM total -19.7Tyson Alualu by season -10.4
How much retained production did Tyson Alualu return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Tyson Alualu since 2010 (17 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Tyson AlualuSlot-similar peers (17)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (14 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2010
JAX
16
16
—
—
5
—
2011
JAX
16
16
—
—
8
—
2012
JAX
16
16
—
—
7
—
2013
JAX
16
14
832
1.1
6
7.2
2014
JAX
16
12
705
0.8
1
1.4
2015
JAX
16
13
850
1.6
6
7.1
2016
JAX
14
8
615
0.7
5
8.1
2017
PIT
16
6
473
0.2
4
8.5
2018
PIT
15
2
338
-0.2
2
5.9
2019
PIT
16
4
498
0.3
3
6.0
2020
PIT
15
5
499
0.4
6
12.0
2021
PIT
2
1
61
-1.1
1
16.4
2022
PIT
17
1
323
-0.1
2
6.2
2023
DET
2
1
67
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
