Terrible-7.38 contribution49th of 49 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Marcedes Lewis became a 20-season, 290-game NFL player after going #28. The retained-value model still ranks him 49th of 49 for James Harris because JAX only got 170 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -7.38. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from James Harris's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
170
on drafting team · 290 full-career
Games started
157
on drafting team · 230 full-career
Snap-z
3.0
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
40
modeled; full weighted AV 35
AV / 1k snaps
3.1
2,950 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move James Harris's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every James Harris pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Marcedes Lewis totals -7.38. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMarcedes LewisGM total -4.6Marcedes Lewis by season -15.5
How much retained production did Marcedes Lewis return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Marcedes Lewis since 2010 (4 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Marcedes LewisSlot-similar peers (4)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (20 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2006
JAX
15
3
—
—
1
—
2007
JAX
16
16
—
—
5
—
2008
JAX
16
16
—
—
4
—
2009
JAX
15
15
—
—
5
—
2010
JAX
16
16
—
—
8
—
✓
2011
JAX
15
15
—
—
4
—
2012
JAX
16
15
—
—
4
—
2013
JAX
11
10
582
0.5
2
3.4
2014
JAX
8
7
432
0.0
1
2.3
2015
JAX
16
13
668
0.8
2
3.0
2016
JAX
10
3
295
-0.3
1
3.4
2017
JAX
16
16
973
1.9
3
3.1
2018
GB
16
0
264
-0.6
0
0.0
2019
GB
16
7
548
0.6
1
1.8
2020
GB
15
3
422
0.1
1
2.4
2021
GB
17
5
478
0.4
2
4.2
2022
GB
17
2
519
0.4
1
1.9
2023
CHI
17
1
349
-0.2
0
0.0
2024
CHI
17
0
272
-0.5
0
0.0
2025
DEN
5
0
81
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
