All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Ernie Sims across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 109
Games started 87
Weighted career AV 29
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 8
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 59
Team starts 56
On-team AV 20
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -1.33 contribution 56th of 62 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Ernie Sims became a 8-season, 109-game NFL player after going #9. The retained-value model still ranks him 56th of 62 for Matt Millen because DET only got 59 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.33 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Matt Millen's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
59
on drafting team · 109 full-career
Games started
56
on drafting team · 87 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
20
modeled; full weighted AV 29
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Matt Millen's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Matt Millen pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Ernie Sims totals -1.33 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 2. Johnson #2 · Calvin Johnson · aggregate +6.14 Johnson +6.1 18. Backus #18 · Jeff Backus · aggregate +2.74 Backus +2.7 30. Jones #30 · Kevin Jones · aggregate +1.20 61. Rogers #61 · Shaun Rogers · aggregate +1.14 64. Smith #64 · Kevin Smith · aggregate +1.01 144. Davis #144 · James Davis · aggregate +0.99 137. Holt #137 · Terrence Holt · aggregate +0.96 175. Cash #175 · Chris Cash · aggregate +0.71 149. McMahon #149 · Mike McMahon · aggregate +0.69 34. Bailey #34 · Boss Bailey · aggregate +0.60 148. Anderson #148 · Scotty Anderson · aggregate +0.60 140. Lewis #140 · Alex Lewis · aggregate +0.55 50. Raiola #50 · Dominic Raiola · aggregate +0.51 247. Cannon #247 · Anthony Cannon · aggregate +0.30 172. Butler #172 · Kelly Butler · aggregate +0.25 255. Robinson #255 · Ramzee Robinson · aggregate +0.25 35. Edwards #35 · Kalimba Edwards · aggregate +0.21 99. Pinner #99 · Artose Pinner · aggregate +0.17 73. Smith #73 · Keith Smith · aggregate +0.12 3. Harrington #3 · Joey Harrington · aggregate +0.10 260. Anglin #260 · Travis Anglin · aggregate +0.03 175. Kircus #175 · David Kircus · aggregate +0.01 72. Wilson #72 · Stanley Wilson · aggregate -0.01 220. Adams #220 · Blue Adams · aggregate -0.03 236. Drumm #236 · Brandon Drumm · aggregate -0.04 184. Swancutt #184 · Bill Swancutt · aggregate -0.05 206. Goddard #206 · Jonathan Goddard · aggregate -0.07 214. Staley #214 · Luke Staley · aggregate -0.08 7. Williams #7 · Roy Williams · aggregate -0.10 218. Campbell #218 · Caleb Campbell · aggregate -0.11 92. Avril #92 · Cliff Avril · aggregate -0.11 252. Murphy #252 · Matt Murphy · aggregate -0.13 61. Alexander #61 · Gerald Alexander · aggregate -0.15 259. Rogers #259 · Victor Rogers · aggregate -0.15 40. Bullocks #40 · Daniel Bullocks · aggregate -0.16 179. McCann #179 · Dee McCann · aggregate -0.21 37. Lehman #37 · Teddy Lehman · aggregate -0.26 216. Johnson #216 · Ben Johnson · aggregate -0.28 217. Matua #217 · Fred Matua · aggregate -0.34 136. Moore #136 · Kenny Moore · aggregate -0.45 216. Cohen #216 · Landon Cohen · aggregate -0.46 158. Baldwin #158 · Johnny Baldwin · aggregate -0.50 134. Taylor #134 · John Taylor · aggregate -0.51 138. Owens #138 · John Owens · aggregate -0.54 105. Davis #105 · A.J. Davis · aggregate -0.56 58. Alama-Francis #58 · Ikaika Alama-Francis · aggregate -0.60 74. Calhoun #74 · Brian Calhoun · aggregate -0.63 87. Fluellen #87 · Andre Fluellen · aggregate -0.64 17. Cherilus #17 · Gosder Cherilus · aggregate -0.66 173. Glenn #173 · Jason Glenn · aggregate -0.70 117. Ramirez #117 · Manuel Ramirez · aggregate -0.72 45. Dizon #45 · Jordon Dizon · aggregate -0.89 66. Redding #66 · Cory Redding · aggregate -1.04 146. Felton #146 · Jerome Felton · aggregate -1.22 37. Cody #37 · Shaun Cody · aggregate -1.25 9. Sims #9 · Ernie Sims · aggregate -1.33 Sims -1.3 68. Goodman #68 · Andre' Goodman · aggregate -1.63 141. Scott #141 · Jonathan Scott · aggregate -1.63 145. Orlovsky #145 · Dan Orlovsky · aggregate -1.68 2. Rogers #2 · Charles Rogers · aggregate -2.22 Rogers -2.2 10. Williams #10 · Mike Williams · aggregate -2.35 Williams -2.4 43. Stanton #43 · Drew Stanton · aggregate -3.02 Stanton -3.0 Incremental contribution by season -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 2001 · Scotty Anderson · incremental +0.25 2001 · Mike McMahon · incremental +0.42 2001 · Shaun Rogers · incremental -0.22 2001 · Jason Glenn · incremental -1.18 2001 · Jeff Backus · incremental -1.85 2001 · Dominic Raiola · incremental -4.47 2002 · Joey Harrington · incremental +0.01 2002 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.11 2002 · Scotty Anderson · incremental +0.40 2002 · Mike McMahon · incremental +0.54 2002 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.55 2002 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.56 2002 · Chris Cash · incremental +0.72 2002 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental -0.02 2002 · Victor Rogers · incremental -0.10 2002 · Luke Staley · incremental -0.19 2002 · Matt Murphy · incremental -0.40 2002 · John Owens · incremental -0.58 2002 · John Taylor · incremental -0.87 2002 · Andre' Goodman · incremental -1.07 2003 · Mike McMahon · incremental +0.06 2003 · James Davis · incremental +0.13 2003 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.15 2003 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental +0.16 2003 · Joey Harrington · incremental +0.18 2003 · Boss Bailey · incremental +0.22 2003 · Terrence Holt · incremental +0.22 2003 · Scotty Anderson · incremental +0.23 2003 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.53 2003 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.54 2003 · David Kircus · incremental -0.01 2003 · Artose Pinner · incremental -0.01 2003 · John Owens · incremental -0.02 2003 · Travis Anglin · incremental -0.03 2003 · Brandon Drumm · incremental -0.12 2003 · Blue Adams · incremental -0.17 2003 · Andre' Goodman · incremental -0.22 2003 · Ben Johnson · incremental -0.51 2003 · Cory Redding · incremental -1.02 2003 · Charles Rogers · incremental -1.63 2004 · Mike McMahon · incremental +0.02 2004 · Artose Pinner · incremental +0.08 2004 · Joey Harrington · incremental +0.14 2004 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental +0.16 2004 · Terrence Holt · incremental +0.22 2004 · Alex Lewis · incremental +0.24 2004 · Chris Cash · incremental +0.35 2004 · Kevin Jones · incremental +0.44 2004 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.53 2004 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.54 2004 · James Davis · incremental +0.72 2004 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.95 2004 · David Kircus · incremental -0.01 2004 · Kelly Butler · incremental -0.02 2004 · Keith Smith · incremental -0.06 2004 · Cory Redding · incremental -0.12 2004 · Charles Rogers · incremental -0.15 2004 · Victor Rogers · incremental -0.20 2004 · Teddy Lehman · incremental -0.36 2004 · Roy Williams · incremental -0.38 2004 · Andre' Goodman · incremental -0.44 2005 · Alex Lewis · incremental +0.02 2005 · Keith Smith · incremental +0.02 2005 · Joey Harrington · incremental +0.12 2005 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental +0.13 2005 · Artose Pinner · incremental +0.14 2005 · Boss Bailey · incremental +0.23 2005 · Kelly Butler · incremental +0.37 2005 · Terrence Holt · incremental +0.42 2005 · Kevin Jones · incremental +0.43 2005 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.53 2005 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.54 2005 · James Davis · incremental +0.70 2005 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.92 2005 · Teddy Lehman · incremental -0.01 2005 · Stanley Wilson · incremental -0.01 2005 · Roy Williams · incremental -0.07 2005 · Cory Redding · incremental -0.12 2005 · Bill Swancutt · incremental -0.14 2005 · Jonathan Goddard · incremental -0.23 2005 · Dan Orlovsky · incremental -0.53 2005 · Shaun Cody · incremental -0.61 2005 · Andre' Goodman · incremental -0.78 2005 · Charles Rogers · incremental -1.36 2005 · Mike Williams · incremental -2.60 2006 · Stanley Wilson · incremental +0.00 2006 · Teddy Lehman · incremental +0.01 2006 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental +0.03 2006 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.06 2006 · Anthony Cannon · incremental +0.15 2006 · Keith Smith · incremental +0.18 2006 · Alex Lewis · incremental +0.22 2006 · Boss Bailey · incremental +0.27 2006 · Kevin Jones · incremental +0.50 2006 · Roy Williams · incremental +0.51 2006 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.55 2006 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.56 2006 · Terrence Holt · incremental +0.64 2006 · Cory Redding · incremental -0.12 2006 · Daniel Bullocks · incremental -0.13 2006 · Dee McCann · incremental -0.44 2006 · Shaun Cody · incremental -0.56 2006 · Fred Matua · incremental -0.60 2006 · Brian Calhoun · incremental -0.60 2006 · Mike Williams · incremental -0.98 2006 · Ernie Sims · incremental -1.15 2006 · Jonathan Scott · incremental -1.72 2007 · Kalimba Edwards · incremental +0.00 2007 · Teddy Lehman · incremental +0.02 2007 · Keith Smith · incremental +0.08 2007 · Ramzee Robinson · incremental +0.09 2007 · Shaun Rogers · incremental +0.15 2007 · Anthony Cannon · incremental +0.18 2007 · Alex Lewis · incremental +0.23 2007 · Boss Bailey · incremental +0.26 2007 · Kevin Jones · incremental +0.38 2007 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.57 2007 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.58 2007 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +1.05 2007 · John Owens · incremental -0.00 2007 · Stanley Wilson · incremental -0.02 2007 · Roy Williams · incremental -0.07 2007 · Cory Redding · incremental -0.10 2007 · Ikaika Alama-Francis · incremental -0.13 2007 · Shaun Cody · incremental -0.13 2007 · Gerald Alexander · incremental -0.20 2007 · Manuel Ramirez · incremental -0.21 2007 · Ernie Sims · incremental -0.32 2007 · Brian Calhoun · incremental -0.40 2007 · Drew Stanton · incremental -0.58 2007 · Jonathan Scott · incremental -0.86 2007 · Johnny Baldwin · incremental -0.86 2007 · A.J. Davis · incremental -0.98 2008 · Caleb Campbell · incremental +0.02 2008 · Keith Smith · incremental +0.12 2008 · Anthony Cannon · incremental +0.15 2008 · Alex Lewis · incremental +0.23 2008 · Ramzee Robinson · incremental +0.27 2008 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.42 2008 · Kevin Smith · incremental +0.49 2008 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.53 2008 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +0.58 2008 · Roy Williams · incremental -0.03 2008 · Gerald Alexander · incremental -0.05 2008 · Daniel Bullocks · incremental -0.07 2008 · Cory Redding · incremental -0.07 2008 · John Owens · incremental -0.10 2008 · Landon Cohen · incremental -0.10 2008 · Manuel Ramirez · incremental -0.19 2008 · Ernie Sims · incremental -0.28 2008 · Drew Stanton · incremental -0.36 2008 · Jerome Felton · incremental -0.48 2008 · Cliff Avril · incremental -0.51 2008 · Shaun Cody · incremental -0.51 2008 · Kenny Moore · incremental -0.78 2008 · Ikaika Alama-Francis · incremental -0.81 2008 · Jordon Dizon · incremental -1.00 2008 · Gosder Cherilus · incremental -1.07 2008 · Andre Fluellen · incremental -1.30 2008 · Dan Orlovsky · incremental -2.30 2009 · Cliff Avril · incremental +0.07 2009 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +0.46 2009 · Kevin Smith · incremental +0.47 2009 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.53 2009 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.54 2009 · Gosder Cherilus · incremental -0.00 2009 · Ernie Sims · incremental -0.17 2009 · Andre Fluellen · incremental -0.22 2009 · Jordon Dizon · incremental -0.34 2009 · Landon Cohen · incremental -0.60 2009 · Jerome Felton · incremental -0.66 2009 · Manuel Ramirez · incremental -0.75 2009 · Drew Stanton · incremental -1.04 2010 · Cliff Avril · incremental +0.08 2010 · Andre Fluellen · incremental +0.10 2010 · Kevin Smith · incremental +0.11 2010 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.55 2010 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.56 2010 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +1.26 2010 · Gosder Cherilus · incremental -0.00 2010 · Caleb Campbell · incremental -0.30 2010 · Jerome Felton · incremental -0.54 2010 · Drew Stanton · incremental -2.74 2011 · Andre Fluellen · incremental +0.07 2011 · Cliff Avril · incremental +0.09 2011 · Kevin Smith · incremental +0.24 2011 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.58 2011 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.59 2011 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +3.24 2011 · Gosder Cherilus · incremental -0.02 2012 · Cliff Avril · incremental +0.09 2012 · Kevin Smith · incremental +0.18 2012 · Jeff Backus · incremental +0.52 2012 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.56 2012 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +3.22 2012 · Gosder Cherilus · incremental -0.01 2012 · Andre Fluellen · incremental -0.10 2013 · Andre Fluellen · incremental +0.07 2013 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.58 2013 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +2.42 2014 · Andre Fluellen · incremental +0.03 2014 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +0.46 2014 · Dominic Raiola · incremental +0.52 2015 · Calvin Johnson · incremental +0.56 2015 · Andre Fluellen · incremental -0.09 2015 · Dan Orlovsky · incremental -0.33 2015 · Manuel Ramirez · incremental -0.63 Backus -1.9 Raiola -4.5 Rogers -1.6 Williams -2.6 Sims -1.2 Scott -1.7 Sims -0.3 Sims -0.3 Orlovsky -2.3 Sims -0.2 Stanton -2.7 Johnson +3.2 Johnson +3.2 Johnson +2.4 2001 6 players 2002 14 players 2003 20 players 2004 21 players 2005 24 players 2006 22 players 2007 26 players 2008 27 players 2009 13 players 2010 10 players 2011 7 players 2012 7 players 2013 3 players 2014 3 players 2015 4 players
How much retained production did Ernie Sims return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Ernie Sims since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 +1.5 +2 +2.5 Model value above slot 9. Kuechly Luke Kuechly · model value +2.8 +2.8 12. Parsons Micah Parsons · model value +2.7 +2.7 5. White Devin White · model value +0.2 12. Gary Rashan Gary · model value +0.2 9. Barr Anthony Barr · model value +0.1 7. Hines-Allen Josh Hines-Allen · model value 0 5. Mack Khalil Mack · model value -0.2 10. Jr. Devin Bush Jr. · model value -0.4 8. McClain Rolando McClain · model value -0.6 8. Simmons Isaiah Simmons · model value -0.7 9. Sims Ernie Sims · model value -0.7 -0.7 13. Reddick Haason Reddick · model value -1.3 6. Mingo Barkevious Mingo · model value -1.6 Ernie Sims
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'06 '08 '10 '12 '13 0 22 44 66 88 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.