Terrible-1.35 contribution35th of 37 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Kenny Britt became a 9-season, 116-game NFL player after going #30. The retained-value model still ranks him 35th of 37 for Mike Reinfeldt because TEN only got 57 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.35. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Reinfeldt's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
57
on drafting team · 116 full-career
Games started
30
on drafting team · 76 full-career
Snap-z
-0.4
1 modeled season
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
22
modeled; full weighted AV 35
AV / 1k snaps
3.3
299 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Reinfeldt's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Reinfeldt pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Kenny Britt totals -1.35. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationKenny BrittGM total -2.9Kenny Britt by season -2.9
How much retained production did Kenny Britt return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Kenny Britt since 2010 (24 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Kenny BrittSlot-similar peers (24)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2009
TEN
16
6
—
—
7
—
2010
TEN
12
7
—
—
8
—
2011
TEN
3
3
—
—
2
—
2012
TEN
14
11
—
—
4
—
2013
TEN
12
5
299
-0.4
1
3.3
2014
LAR
16
16
786
1.1
6
7.6
2015
LAR
16
15
651
0.7
5
7.7
2016
LAR
15
15
788
1.0
6
7.6
2017
CLE, NE
12
6
393
-1.5
1
2.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
