HOU draft credit
GM Bill O'Brien
Team games41
Team starts21
On-team AV10
On-team PB / AP10 / 0
Bad-0.42 contribution4th of 12 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Charlie Heck
Drafted by HOU · GM Bill O'Brien · North Carolina
All NFL teams
Full-career context
These totals follow Charlie Heck across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played67
Games started29
Weighted career AV15
Pro Bowls0
AP1 All-Pro0
Career seasons6
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received
A Bad pick
Charlie Heck was Bill O'Brien's 4th-best of 12 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.42. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bill O'Brien's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
41
on drafting team · 67 full-career
Games started
21
on drafting team · 29 full-career
Snap-z
-1.3
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
10
modeled; full weighted AV 15
AV / 1k snaps
6.8
1,480 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bill O'Brien's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bill O'Brien pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Charlie Heck totals -0.42. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationCharlie HeckGM total -8.2Charlie Heck by season -1.0
How much retained production did Charlie Heck return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Charlie Heck since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Charlie HeckSlot-similar peers (12)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (6 scored seasons)
| Year | Team | GP | GS | Snaps | Snap-z | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | AP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | HOU | 3 | 2 | 119 | -0.9 | 1 | 8.4 | |||
| 2021 | HOU | 15 | 13 | 877 | 0.9 | 5 | 5.7 | |||
| 2022 | HOU | 17 | 2 | 216 | -0.6 | 2 | 9.3 | |||
| 2023 | HOU | 6 | 4 | 268 | -0.6 | 2 | 7.5 | |||
| 2024 | ARI, SF | 9 | 2 | 154 | -2.1 | 2 | 13.0 | |||
| 2025 | TB | 17 | 7 | 546 | 0.0 | 4 | 7.3 |
How to read this
- The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
- Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
- AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
- Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.