HOU draft credit
GM Bill O'Brien
Team games44
Team starts19
On-team AV8
On-team PB / AP10 / 0
Terrible-1.30 contribution11th of 12 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Drafted by HOU · GM Bill O'Brien · Kentucky
All NFL teams
Full-career context
These totals follow Lonnie Johnson Jr. across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played92
Games started22
Weighted career AV11
Pro Bowls0
AP1 All-Pro0
Career seasons7
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received
A Terrible pick
Lonnie Johnson Jr. was Bill O'Brien's 11th-best of 12 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.30. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bill O'Brien's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
44
on drafting team · 92 full-career
Games started
19
on drafting team · 22 full-career
Snap-z
2.5
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
8
modeled; full weighted AV 11
AV / 1k snaps
3.7
2,181 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bill O'Brien's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bill O'Brien pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lonnie Johnson Jr. totals -1.30. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLonnie Johnson Jr.GM total -8.2Lonnie Johnson Jr. by season -2.9
How much retained production did Lonnie Johnson Jr. return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: CBs drafted within ±5 picks of Lonnie Johnson Jr. since 2010 (13 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.Slot-similar peers (13)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (7 scored seasons)
| Year | Team | GP | GS | Snaps | Snap-z | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | AP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | HOU | 14 | 10 | 628 | 0.5 | 3 | 4.8 | |||
| 2020 | HOU | 16 | 12 | 887 | 1.4 | 2 | 2.3 | |||
| 2021 | HOU | 14 | 9 | 666 | 0.7 | 3 | 4.5 | |||
| 2022 | TEN | 12 | 10 | 347 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.9 | |||
| 2023 | NO | 12 | 11 | 371 | -0.2 | 1 | 2.7 | |||
| 2024 | CAR | 15 | 14 | 352 | -0.4 | 1 | 2.8 | |||
| 2025 | LV | 9 | 6 | 388 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.6 |
How to read this
- The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
- Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
- AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
- Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.