All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Eric Ogbogu across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 90
Games started 4
Weighted career AV 11
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 8
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 41
Team starts 0
On-team AV 5
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Bad -0.56 contribution 51st of 61 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Eric Ogbogu became a 8-season, 90-game NFL player after going #163. The retained-value model still ranks him 51st of 61 for Bill Parcells because NYJ only got 41 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.56 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bill Parcells's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
41
on drafting team · 90 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team · 4 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
5
modeled; full weighted AV 11
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Bill Parcells's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Bill Parcells pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Eric Ogbogu totals -0.56 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 86. Bruschi #86 · Tedy Bruschi · aggregate +3.98 Bruschi +4.0 23. Law #23 · Ty Law · aggregate +3.31 Law +3.3 168. Lane #168 · Max Lane · aggregate +2.63 Lane +2.6 111. Fabini #111 · Jason Fabini · aggregate +2.15 Fabini +2.2 57. Johnson #57 · Ted Johnson · aggregate +2.13 Johnson +2.1 223. Young #223 · Ryan Young · aggregate +1.62 36. Milloy #36 · Lawyer Milloy · aggregate +1.27 119. Sullivan #119 · Chris Sullivan · aggregate +1.23 197. Machado #197 · J.P. Machado · aggregate +1.22 229. Ferguson #229 · Jason Ferguson · aggregate +0.86 216. Purnell #216 · Lovett Purnell · aggregate +0.72 121. Burke #121 · John Burke · aggregate +0.54 112. Wohlabaugh #112 · Dave Wohlabaugh · aggregate +0.53 135. O'Neill #135 · Pat O'Neill · aggregate +0.52 222. Moore #222 · Marty Moore · aggregate +0.50 195. Grier #195 · Marrio Grier · aggregate +0.36 206. Wyman #206 · Devin Wyman · aggregate +0.36 191. Clements #191 · Chuck Clements · aggregate +0.31 198. Walker #198 · Jay Walker · aggregate +0.30 87. Williams #87 · Kevin Williams · aggregate +0.28 123. Wiltz #123 · Jason Wiltz · aggregate +0.21 88. Ward #88 · Dedric Ward · aggregate +0.15 234. Yancy #234 · Carlos Yancy · aggregate +0.09 146. Spence #146 · Blake Spence · aggregate +0.07 195. Hart #195 · Lawrence Hart · aggregate +0.06 145. Austin #145 · Raymond Austin · aggregate +0.01 173. Griffin #173 · Chris Griffin · aggregate -0.01 202. Rosga #202 · Steve Rosga · aggregate -0.05 166. Hawkins #166 · Steve Hawkins · aggregate -0.12 195. Philyaw #195 · Dino Philyaw · aggregate -0.12 183. Johnson #183 · Dustin Johnson · aggregate -0.15 235. Syvrud #235 · J.J. Syvrud · aggregate -0.15 247. Conrad #247 · J.R. Conrad · aggregate -0.16 162. Jones #162 · Jermaine Jones · aggregate -0.16 174. Brazzell #174 · Chris Brazzell · aggregate -0.17 74. Martin #74 · Curtis Martin · aggregate -0.19 101. Irwin #101 · Heath Irwin · aggregate -0.24 56. Boose #56 · Dorian Boose · aggregate -0.27 183. Megna #183 · Marc Megna · aggregate -0.30 67. Frost #67 · Scott Frost · aggregate -0.36 164. Scharf #164 · Tim Scharf · aggregate -0.36 131. Burns #131 · Lamont Burns · aggregate -0.37 124. Barber #124 · Kantroy Barber · aggregate -0.38 104. Johnson #104 · Leon Johnson · aggregate -0.41 134. Dailey #134 · Casey Dailey · aggregate -0.41 102. Day #102 · Terry Day · aggregate -0.42 149. Bateman #149 · Eric Bateman · aggregate -0.46 141. Karczewski #141 · Doug Karczewski · aggregate -0.49 139. Elmore #139 · John Elmore · aggregate -0.51 88. Hitchcock #88 · Jimmy Hitchcock · aggregate -0.54 163. Ogbogu #163 · Eric Ogbogu · aggregate -0.56 Ogbogu -0.6 78. Collier #78 · Ervin Collier · aggregate -0.61 90. Loverne #90 · David Loverne · aggregate -0.67 90. Burch #90 · Joe Burch · aggregate -0.78 31. Terry #31 · Rick Terry · aggregate -0.92 149. Peter #149 · Christian Peter · aggregate -0.93 57. Thomas #57 · Randy Thomas · aggregate -1.00 35. Lee #35 · Kevin Lee · aggregate -1.03 4. McGinest #4 · Willie McGinest · aggregate -1.07 7. Glenn #7 · Terry Glenn · aggregate -2.36 Glenn -2.4 8. Farrior #8 · James Farrior · aggregate -7.81 Farrior -7.8 Incremental contribution by season -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 1994 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.06 1994 · Max Lane · incremental +0.21 1994 · John Burke · incremental +0.36 1994 · Jay Walker · incremental +0.43 1994 · Pat O'Neill · incremental +0.65 1994 · Kevin Lee · incremental -0.06 1994 · Steve Hawkins · incremental -0.23 1994 · Ervin Collier · incremental -1.05 1994 · Joe Burch · incremental -1.29 1994 · Willie McGinest · incremental -2.37 1995 · Curtis Martin · incremental +0.02 1995 · Pat O'Neill · incremental +0.04 1995 · Carlos Yancy · incremental +0.05 1995 · Ty Law · incremental +0.13 1995 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.17 1995 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.22 1995 · John Burke · incremental +0.35 1995 · Max Lane · incremental +0.77 1995 · Dave Wohlabaugh · incremental -0.02 1995 · Ted Johnson · incremental -0.14 1995 · Jimmy Hitchcock · incremental -0.22 1995 · Dino Philyaw · incremental -0.25 1995 · Kevin Lee · incremental -1.54 1996 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.00 1996 · Lovett Purnell · incremental +0.02 1996 · John Burke · incremental +0.16 1996 · Ty Law · incremental +0.19 1996 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.23 1996 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.25 1996 · Dave Wohlabaugh · incremental +0.26 1996 · Chris Sullivan · incremental +0.34 1996 · Marrio Grier · incremental +0.34 1996 · Devin Wyman · incremental +0.45 1996 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.56 1996 · Max Lane · incremental +0.86 1996 · Heath Irwin · incremental -0.08 1996 · Jimmy Hitchcock · incremental -0.22 1996 · Chris Griffin · incremental -0.24 1996 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental -0.28 1996 · Curtis Martin · incremental -0.30 1996 · J.R. Conrad · incremental -0.33 1996 · Kantroy Barber · incremental -0.66 1996 · John Elmore · incremental -0.86 1996 · Christian Peter · incremental -1.52 1996 · Terry Glenn · incremental -1.85 1997 · Heath Irwin · incremental +0.00 1997 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.03 1997 · Devin Wyman · incremental +0.04 1997 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.15 1997 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.23 1997 · Dave Wohlabaugh · incremental +0.23 1997 · Ty Law · incremental +0.23 1997 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.26 1997 · Marrio Grier · incremental +0.28 1997 · Chuck Clements · incremental +0.44 1997 · Lovett Purnell · incremental +0.48 1997 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.54 1997 · Chris Sullivan · incremental +0.70 1997 · Max Lane · incremental +0.86 1997 · Raymond Austin · incremental -0.05 1997 · Dedric Ward · incremental -0.08 1997 · Jason Ferguson · incremental -0.14 1997 · Steve Rosga · incremental -0.18 1997 · Curtis Martin · incremental -0.24 1997 · Terry Glenn · incremental -0.25 1997 · Leon Johnson · incremental -0.36 1997 · Jimmy Hitchcock · incremental -0.41 1997 · Tim Scharf · incremental -0.65 1997 · Lamont Burns · incremental -0.65 1997 · Terry Day · incremental -0.75 1997 · Rick Terry · incremental -1.46 1997 · James Farrior · incremental -9.52 1998 · Blake Spence · incremental +0.02 1998 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.04 1998 · Dedric Ward · incremental +0.10 1998 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.11 1998 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.13 1998 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.14 1998 · Kevin Williams · incremental +0.16 1998 · Dave Wohlabaugh · incremental +0.25 1998 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.30 1998 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.37 1998 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.41 1998 · Lovett Purnell · incremental +0.57 1998 · Chris Sullivan · incremental +0.64 1998 · Max Lane · incremental +0.67 1998 · Ty Law · incremental +1.46 1998 · Heath Irwin · incremental -0.03 1998 · Scott Frost · incremental -0.06 1998 · Lawrence Hart · incremental -0.12 1998 · Terry Glenn · incremental -0.30 1998 · Dustin Johnson · incremental -0.30 1998 · Casey Dailey · incremental -0.32 1998 · Chris Brazzell · incremental -0.34 1998 · Leon Johnson · incremental -0.35 1998 · Dorian Boose · incremental -0.39 1998 · James Farrior · incremental -0.49 1998 · Eric Ogbogu · incremental -0.64 1998 · Eric Bateman · incremental -0.80 1998 · Doug Karczewski · incremental -0.85 1999 · Dorian Boose · incremental +0.01 1999 · Kevin Williams · incremental +0.02 1999 · Scott Frost · incremental +0.02 1999 · J.P. Machado · incremental +0.08 1999 · Dedric Ward · incremental +0.11 1999 · Jason Wiltz · incremental +0.13 1999 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.16 1999 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.16 1999 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.16 1999 · Ty Law · incremental +0.20 1999 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.23 1999 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.29 1999 · Chris Sullivan · incremental +0.31 1999 · Max Lane · incremental +0.48 1999 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.51 1999 · Ryan Young · incremental +0.57 1999 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +1.19 1999 · Leon Johnson · incremental -0.01 1999 · Blake Spence · incremental -0.06 1999 · Eric Ogbogu · incremental -0.10 1999 · Heath Irwin · incremental -0.23 1999 · J.J. Syvrud · incremental -0.30 1999 · Jermaine Jones · incremental -0.36 1999 · Casey Dailey · incremental -0.37 1999 · Marc Megna · incremental -0.55 1999 · David Loverne · incremental -0.63 1999 · James Farrior · incremental -0.74 1999 · Randy Thomas · incremental -1.00 1999 · Terry Glenn · incremental -1.21 2000 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.03 2000 · Dedric Ward · incremental +0.14 2000 · Jason Wiltz · incremental +0.16 2000 · Kevin Williams · incremental +0.20 2000 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.20 2000 · Ty Law · incremental +0.21 2000 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.23 2000 · Max Lane · incremental +0.26 2000 · J.P. Machado · incremental +0.35 2000 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.40 2000 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.51 2000 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.56 2000 · Ryan Young · incremental +0.99 2000 · Dorian Boose · incremental -0.00 2000 · Leon Johnson · incremental -0.01 2000 · David Loverne · incremental -0.17 2000 · Randy Thomas · incremental -0.21 2000 · Terry Glenn · incremental -0.47 2000 · Scott Frost · incremental -0.49 2000 · James Farrior · incremental -0.99 2001 · Marty Moore · incremental +0.04 2001 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.11 2001 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.27 2001 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.43 2001 · J.P. Machado · incremental +0.44 2001 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.51 2001 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.58 2001 · Ty Law · incremental +0.66 2001 · Ryan Young · incremental +0.99 2001 · Terry Glenn · incremental -0.08 2001 · Eric Ogbogu · incremental -0.10 2001 · David Loverne · incremental -0.17 2001 · Randy Thomas · incremental -0.18 2001 · James Farrior · incremental -1.68 2002 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.17 2002 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.29 2002 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.36 2002 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.39 2002 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.54 2002 · Lawyer Milloy · incremental +0.57 2002 · Ty Law · incremental +0.63 2002 · J.P. Machado · incremental +0.79 2002 · Jimmy Hitchcock · incremental -0.01 2002 · Randy Thomas · incremental -0.25 2003 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.15 2003 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.29 2003 · J.P. Machado · incremental +0.35 2003 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.52 2003 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.74 2003 · Ty Law · incremental +1.84 2003 · Willie McGinest · incremental -2.03 2004 · Ty Law · incremental +0.10 2004 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.22 2004 · Jason Ferguson · incremental +0.28 2004 · Ted Johnson · incremental +0.51 2004 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.52 2004 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +1.19 2005 · Willie McGinest · incremental +0.22 2005 · Jason Fabini · incremental +0.27 2005 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.32 2006 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.57 2007 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.56 2008 · Tedy Bruschi · incremental +0.45 McGinest -2.4 Lee -1.5 Peter -1.5 Glenn -1.8 Farrior -9.5 Ogbogu -0.6 Ogbogu -0.1 Ogbogu -0.1 Farrior -1.7 Law +1.8 McGinest -2.0 1994 10 players 1995 13 players 1996 22 players 1997 27 players 1998 28 players 1999 29 players 2000 20 players 2001 14 players 2002 10 players 2003 7 players 2004 6 players 2005 3 players 2006 1 player 2007 1 player 2008 1 player
How much retained production did Eric Ogbogu return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Eric Ogbogu since 2010 (19 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-0.5 0 Model value above slot 160. Stinson Ed Stinson · model value +0.1 167. Boyd Josh Boyd · model value +0.1 168. Solomon Javon Solomon · model value +0.1 159. Oliver Collin Oliver · model value +0.1 164. Massaquoi Jonathan Massaquoi · model value +0.1 165. McPhee Pernell McPhee · model value 0 166. Thompson BJ Thompson · model value 0 167. Moss Avery Moss · model value -0.1 162. Jenkins Brandon Jenkins · model value -0.1 158. Brown Andrew Brown · model value -0.1 163. Russell Ryan Russell · model value -0.1 158. Riddick Shaquille Riddick · model value -0.1 158. Smith Tyreke Smith · model value -0.2 165. Jackson Joe Jackson · model value -0.2 159. Smith Chris Smith · model value -0.2 164. Weaver Curtis Weaver · model value -0.2 163. Ogbogu Eric Ogbogu · model value -0.3 -0.3 160. Okoronkwo Ogbonnia Okoronkwo · model value -0.6 161. Omenihu Charles Omenihu · model value -0.7 158. Crawford Jack Crawford · model value -0.8 Eric Ogbogu
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'98 '00 '02 '04 '05 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.