Terrible-2.52 contribution25th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Terrible pick
Chris Long was Jay Zygmunt's 25th-best of 26 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.52. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jay Zygmunt's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
114
on drafting team · 162 full-career
Games started
95
on drafting team · 103 full-career
Snap-z
0.7
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
47
modeled; full weighted AV 48
AV / 1k snaps
8.5
1,653 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Jay Zygmunt's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Jay Zygmunt pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Chris Long totals -2.52. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationChris LongGM total -9.1Chris Long by season -5.2
How much retained production did Chris Long return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Chris Long since 2010 (17 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Chris LongSlot-similar peers (17)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (11 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2008
LAR
16
16
—
—
6
—
2009
LAR
16
4
—
—
3
—
2010
LAR
16
16
—
—
9
—
2011
LAR
16
16
—
—
7
—
2012
LAR
16
16
—
—
8
—
2013
LAR
16
15
916
1.3
8
8.7
2014
LAR
6
4
232
-0.8
3
12.9
2015
LAR
12
8
505
0.2
3
5.9
2016
NE
16
16
677
0.9
6
8.9
2017
PHI
16
6
525
0.4
3
5.7
2018
PHI
16
12
659
0.8
2
3.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
