Terrible-1.78 contribution24th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Rodger Saffold became a 13-season, 176-game NFL player after going #33. The retained-value model still ranks him 24th of 26 for Billy Devaney because LAR only got 114 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.78. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Billy Devaney's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
114
on drafting team · 176 full-career
Games started
111
on drafting team · 173 full-career
Snap-z
3.4
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
54
modeled; full weighted AV 71
AV / 1k snaps
8.5
4,926 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Billy Devaney's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Billy Devaney pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Rodger Saffold totals -1.78. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationRodger SaffoldGM total -9.2Rodger Saffold by season -3.5
How much retained production did Rodger Saffold return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Rodger Saffold since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Rodger SaffoldSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2010
LAR
16
16
—
—
6
—
2011
LAR
9
9
—
—
2
—
2012
LAR
10
10
—
—
4
—
2013
LAR
12
8
582
-0.1
5
8.6
2014
LAR
16
15
959
0.9
7
7.3
2015
LAR
5
4
246
-0.9
2
8.1
2016
LAR
15
14
958
0.9
5
5.2
2017
LAR
15
15
1,033
1.1
12
11.6
·
2018
LAR
16
16
1,148
1.5
11
9.6
2019
TEN
16
15
994
1.0
8
8.0
2020
TEN
15
14
935
1.0
9
9.6
2021
TEN
15
14
898
0.8
9
10.0
2022
BUF
16
16
1,073
1.1
11
10.3
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
