All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Karl Wilson across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 103
Games started 25
Weighted career AV 14
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 9
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 20
Team starts 2
On-team AV 3
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -2.12 contribution 56th of 62 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Karl Wilson became a 9-season, 103-game NFL player after going #59. The retained-value model still ranks him 56th of 62 for Steve Ortmayer because LAC only got 20 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.12 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Steve Ortmayer's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
20
on drafting team · 103 full-career
Games started
2
on drafting team · 25 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
3
modeled; full weighted AV 14
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Steve Ortmayer's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Steve Ortmayer pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Karl Wilson totals -2.12 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 22. Byrd #22 · Gill Byrd · aggregate +3.79 Byrd +3.8 183. Butts #183 · Marion Butts · aggregate +3.39 Butts +3.4 37. Hall #37 · Courtney Hall · aggregate +2.91 Hall +2.9 15. Miller #15 · Anthony Miller · aggregate +2.71 Miller +2.7 118. James #118 · Lionel James · aggregate +1.77 8. O'Neal #8 · Leslie O'Neal · aggregate +1.59 95. Walters #95 · Danny Walters · aggregate +1.34 98. Richards #98 · David Richards · aggregate +1.23 8. Grossman #8 · Burt Grossman · aggregate +1.00 96. Mojsiejenko #96 · Ralf Mojsiejenko · aggregate +0.82 101. Luther #101 · Ed Luther · aggregate +0.73 141. Gissinger #141 · Andrew Gissinger · aggregate +0.58 55. Dale #55 · Jeffery Dale · aggregate +0.57 192. Elko #192 · Bill Elko · aggregate +0.49 173. Holland #173 · Jamie Holland · aggregate +0.44 195. Jones #195 · Terrence Jones · aggregate +0.23 175. Loewen #175 · Chuck Loewen · aggregate +0.21 174. Bendross #174 · Jesse Bendross · aggregate +0.18 162. Duckworth #162 · Bobby Duckworth · aggregate +0.15 108. Gregor #108 · Bob Gregor · aggregate +0.04 191. Dodds #191 · Stuart Dodds · aggregate +0.02 129. Brown #129 · Donald Brown · aggregate -0.02 88. Vlasic #88 · Mark Vlasic · aggregate -0.06 107. Sievers #107 · Eric Sievers · aggregate -0.15 131. Ferguson #131 · Keith Ferguson · aggregate -0.21 91. Campbell #91 · Joe Campbell · aggregate -0.21 150. Lewis #150 · Terry Lewis · aggregate -0.22 144. Guthrie #144 · Keith Guthrie · aggregate -0.22 66. Unrein #66 · Terry Unrein · aggregate -0.26 141. Johnson #141 · Trumaine Johnson · aggregate -0.31 69. Hendy #69 · John Hendy · aggregate -0.32 188. Hall #188 · Hollis Hall · aggregate -0.35 155. Pardridge #155 · Curt Pardridge · aggregate -0.38 196. Fellows #196 · Mark Fellows · aggregate -0.39 120. Smith #120 · Elliot Smith · aggregate -0.40 133. Johnson #133 · Matt Johnson · aggregate -0.44 182. Smalls #182 · Fred Smalls · aggregate -0.45 95. Allert #95 · Ty Allert · aggregate -0.49 115. Jones #115 · Nelson Jones · aggregate -0.49 5. Smith #5 · Billy Ray Smith · aggregate -0.51 151. Harrington #151 · LaRue Harrington · aggregate -0.56 118. Landry #118 · Doug Landry · aggregate -0.71 163. Hamilton #163 · Wayne Hamilton · aggregate -0.72 77. Phillips #77 · Irvin Phillips · aggregate -0.76 103. Lawrence #103 · Amos Lawrence · aggregate -0.81 39. Davis #39 · Wayne Davis · aggregate -0.81 152. Figaro #152 · Cedric Figaro · aggregate -0.82 97. Taylor #97 · Tommy Taylor · aggregate -0.83 70. Walker #70 · Jeff Walker · aggregate -0.84 93. Searels #93 · Stacy Searels · aggregate -0.85 53. Brock #53 · Lou Brock · aggregate -0.98 189. Holohan #189 · Pete Holohan · aggregate -1.31 24. Bernstine #24 · Rod Bernstine · aggregate -1.37 33. Guendling #33 · Mike Guendling · aggregate -1.48 13. FitzPatrick #13 · James FitzPatrick · aggregate -1.58 59. Wilson #59 · Karl Wilson · aggregate -2.12 Wilson -2.1 51. Tolliver #51 · Billy Joe Tolliver · aggregate -2.23 Tolliver -2.2 6. Cade #6 · Mossy Cade · aggregate -2.38 Cade -2.4 20. Anderson #20 · Gary Anderson · aggregate -2.50 Anderson -2.5 12. Lachey #12 · Jim Lachey · aggregate -3.14 Lachey -3.1 60. Early #60 · Quinn Early · aggregate -3.37 Early -3.4 24. Brooks #24 · James Brooks · aggregate -5.26 Brooks -5.3 Incremental contribution by season -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 1980 · Ed Luther · incremental +0.07 1980 · Chuck Loewen · incremental +0.18 1980 · Bob Gregor · incremental -0.05 1980 · Stuart Dodds · incremental -0.15 1980 · LaRue Harrington · incremental -0.90 1980 · Wayne Hamilton · incremental -1.17 1981 · Bob Gregor · incremental +0.06 1981 · Ed Luther · incremental +0.29 1981 · Andrew Gissinger · incremental -0.03 1981 · Bobby Duckworth · incremental -0.05 1981 · Chuck Loewen · incremental -0.12 1981 · Keith Ferguson · incremental -0.30 1981 · Eric Sievers · incremental -0.44 1981 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.53 1981 · Irvin Phillips · incremental -1.19 1981 · Amos Lawrence · incremental -1.31 1981 · James Brooks · incremental -6.00 1982 · Pete Holohan · incremental +0.01 1982 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.02 1982 · Bob Gregor · incremental +0.02 1982 · Bobby Duckworth · incremental +0.06 1982 · Chuck Loewen · incremental +0.13 1982 · Andrew Gissinger · incremental +0.13 1982 · Ed Luther · incremental +0.16 1982 · Keith Ferguson · incremental -0.01 1982 · Hollis Hall · incremental -0.65 1982 · James Brooks · incremental -0.88 1983 · Keith Ferguson · incremental +0.02 1983 · Bob Gregor · incremental +0.04 1983 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.06 1983 · Bill Elko · incremental +0.22 1983 · Ed Luther · incremental +0.42 1983 · Andrew Gissinger · incremental +0.47 1983 · Danny Walters · incremental +0.67 1983 · Bobby Duckworth · incremental -0.02 1983 · Trumaine Johnson · incremental -0.05 1983 · Gill Byrd · incremental -0.11 1983 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.19 1983 · Gary Anderson · incremental -1.02 1983 · James Brooks · incremental -2.35 1983 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental -2.63 1984 · Keith Ferguson · incremental +0.02 1984 · Bob Gregor · incremental +0.02 1984 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.04 1984 · Bobby Duckworth · incremental +0.10 1984 · Jesse Bendross · incremental +0.16 1984 · Chuck Loewen · incremental +0.17 1984 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.24 1984 · Andrew Gissinger · incremental +0.28 1984 · Danny Walters · incremental +0.30 1984 · Ed Luther · incremental +0.38 1984 · Lionel James · incremental +0.39 1984 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.44 1984 · Bill Elko · incremental +0.55 1984 · Keith Guthrie · incremental -0.38 1984 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.40 1984 · Mike Guendling · incremental -1.51 1984 · Mossy Cade · incremental -3.61 1985 · Keith Ferguson · incremental +0.00 1985 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.05 1985 · Jesse Bendross · incremental +0.16 1985 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.22 1985 · Jeffery Dale · incremental +0.36 1985 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.52 1985 · Danny Walters · incremental +0.71 1985 · Lionel James · incremental +0.89 1985 · Trumaine Johnson · incremental -0.09 1985 · Ralf Mojsiejenko · incremental -0.17 1985 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.28 1985 · Terry Lewis · incremental -0.42 1985 · Gary Anderson · incremental -0.52 1985 · Mark Fellows · incremental -0.53 1985 · John Hendy · incremental -0.57 1985 · Wayne Davis · incremental -0.71 1985 · Mike Guendling · incremental -0.77 1985 · Jim Lachey · incremental -2.31 1986 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.05 1986 · Danny Walters · incremental +0.10 1986 · Ralf Mojsiejenko · incremental +0.15 1986 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.23 1986 · Lionel James · incremental +0.24 1986 · Jeffery Dale · incremental +0.44 1986 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.50 1986 · Donald Brown · incremental -0.12 1986 · Mark Fellows · incremental -0.14 1986 · James FitzPatrick · incremental -0.27 1986 · Terry Unrein · incremental -0.29 1986 · Trumaine Johnson · incremental -0.31 1986 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.37 1986 · Wayne Davis · incremental -0.54 1986 · Curt Pardridge · incremental -0.66 1986 · Ty Allert · incremental -0.71 1986 · Fred Smalls · incremental -0.77 1986 · Matt Johnson · incremental -0.79 1986 · Doug Landry · incremental -1.17 1986 · Jim Lachey · incremental -1.21 1986 · Jeff Walker · incremental -1.32 1986 · Tommy Taylor · incremental -1.36 1986 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental -1.59 1986 · Gary Anderson · incremental -1.66 1987 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.07 1987 · Jamie Holland · incremental +0.12 1987 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.19 1987 · Danny Walters · incremental +0.34 1987 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.42 1987 · Lionel James · incremental +0.59 1987 · Ralf Mojsiejenko · incremental +1.17 1987 · Mark Vlasic · incremental -0.03 1987 · Ty Allert · incremental -0.04 1987 · Terry Unrein · incremental -0.14 1987 · Pete Holohan · incremental -0.21 1987 · Gary Anderson · incremental -0.46 1987 · Nelson Jones · incremental -0.88 1987 · Karl Wilson · incremental -0.95 1987 · James FitzPatrick · incremental -1.02 1987 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -1.07 1987 · Jim Lachey · incremental -1.55 1987 · Lou Brock · incremental -1.60 1988 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.03 1988 · Eric Sievers · incremental +0.03 1988 · Jeffery Dale · incremental +0.10 1988 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.13 1988 · David Richards · incremental +0.16 1988 · Ralf Mojsiejenko · incremental +0.20 1988 · Jamie Holland · incremental +0.33 1988 · Lionel James · incremental +0.37 1988 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.56 1988 · Mark Vlasic · incremental -0.03 1988 · James FitzPatrick · incremental -0.21 1988 · Anthony Miller · incremental -0.25 1988 · Joe Campbell · incremental -0.31 1988 · Cedric Figaro · incremental -0.37 1988 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -0.47 1988 · Gary Anderson · incremental -0.71 1988 · Stacy Searels · incremental -1.39 1988 · Karl Wilson · incremental -2.37 1988 · Quinn Early · incremental -3.25 1989 · Burt Grossman · incremental +0.23 1989 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.24 1989 · Jamie Holland · incremental +0.29 1989 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.29 1989 · Terrence Jones · incremental +0.30 1989 · David Richards · incremental +0.42 1989 · Marion Butts · incremental +0.43 1989 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.58 1989 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.71 1989 · Anthony Miller · incremental +1.18 1989 · Joe Campbell · incremental -0.04 1989 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -0.07 1989 · Quinn Early · incremental -0.66 1989 · Cedric Figaro · incremental -0.66 1989 · Elliot Smith · incremental -0.72 1989 · James FitzPatrick · incremental -0.79 1989 · Billy Joe Tolliver · incremental -1.05 1990 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.16 1990 · Burt Grossman · incremental +0.37 1990 · David Richards · incremental +0.42 1990 · Gill Byrd · incremental +0.60 1990 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.63 1990 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.71 1990 · Anthony Miller · incremental +1.18 1990 · Marion Butts · incremental +1.92 1990 · Mark Vlasic · incremental -0.06 1990 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -0.17 1990 · Cedric Figaro · incremental -0.26 1990 · Quinn Early · incremental -1.38 1990 · Billy Joe Tolliver · incremental -2.43 1991 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.12 1991 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.17 1991 · Anthony Miller · incremental +0.21 1991 · Burt Grossman · incremental +0.38 1991 · David Richards · incremental +0.42 1991 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.63 1991 · Gill Byrd · incremental +1.27 1991 · Marion Butts · incremental +1.67 1991 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -0.38 1992 · Billy Ray Smith · incremental +0.01 1992 · Burt Grossman · incremental +0.35 1992 · David Richards · incremental +0.46 1992 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.68 1992 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.70 1992 · Marion Butts · incremental +0.77 1992 · Anthony Miller · incremental +1.18 1992 · Gill Byrd · incremental +1.34 1992 · Rod Bernstine · incremental -0.15 1993 · Burt Grossman · incremental +0.24 1993 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.68 1993 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.70 1993 · Marion Butts · incremental +0.81 1993 · Anthony Miller · incremental +1.21 1994 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.24 1994 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.63 1995 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.63 1995 · Leslie O'Neal · incremental +0.70 1996 · Courtney Hall · incremental +0.27 Brooks -6.0 Brooks -2.3 Smith -2.6 Cade -3.6 Lachey -2.3 O'Neal -1.6 Anderson -1.7 Wilson -0.9 Brock -1.6 Wilson -2.4 Early -3.2 Butts +1.9 Tolliver -2.4 Butts +1.7 1980 6 players 1981 11 players 1982 10 players 1983 14 players 1984 17 players 1985 18 players 1986 24 players 1987 18 players 1988 19 players 1989 17 players 1990 13 players 1991 9 players 1992 9 players 1993 5 players 1994 2 players 1995 2 players 1996 1 player
How much retained production did Karl Wilson return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Karl Wilson since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-0.5 0 +0.5 Model value above slot 54. Dunlap Carlos Dunlap · model value +0.8 56. Neal Mike Neal · model value +0.2 63. Clark Frank Clark · model value 0 58. Golden Markus Golden · model value -0.1 54. Epenesa A.J. Epenesa · model value -0.1 60. Ealy Kony Ealy · model value -0.1 62. Turner Shemar Turner · model value -0.2 59. Kpassagnon Tanoh Kpassagnon · model value -0.5 56. Williams Sam Williams · model value -0.6 64. Lewis Tyquan Lewis · model value -0.6 59. Curry Vinny Curry · model value -0.7 59. Green Mike Green · model value -0.9 59. Wilson Karl Wilson · model value -0.9 -0.9 Karl Wilson
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'88 '90 '92 '94 '95 0 6 13 19 25 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.