Lorenzo Neal · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Lorenzo Neal across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played239

Games started131

Weighted career AV14

Pro Bowls4

AP1 All-Pro2

Career seasons16

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

1993 · Round 4 · #89

NO draft credit

GM Jim Finks

Team games50

Team starts25

On-team AV5

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-5.69 contribution81st of 81 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Lorenzo Neal became a 16-season, 239-game NFL player after going #89. The retained-value model still ranks him 81st of 81 for Jim Finks because NO only got 50 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -5.69. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jim Finks's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 239 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 131 full-career

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 14

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

4 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

2 full-career · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Jim Finks's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Jim Finks pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lorenzo Neal totals -5.69. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationLorenzo NealGM total +7.1Lorenzo Neal by season -8.8

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (16 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
1993	NO	2	2	—	—	1	—
1994	NO	16	7	—	—	1	—
1995	NO	16	5	—	—	1	—
1996	NO	16	11	—	—	2	—
1997	NYJ	16	3	—	—	1	—
1998	TB	16	1	—	—	0	—
1999	TEN	16	14	—	—	0	—
2000	TEN	16	6	—	—	0	—
2001	CIN	16	10	—	—	1	—
2002	CIN	16	8	—	—	1	—
2003	LAC	16	15	—	—	1	—
2004	LAC	16	10	—	—	1	—
2005	LAC	16	15	—	—	3	—
2006	LAC	16	11	—	—	3	—
2007	LAC	13	8	—	—	1	—
2008	BAL	16	5	—	—	1	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.