All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Mike Croel across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 102
Games started 84
Weighted career AV 34
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 8
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 58
Team starts 54
On-team AV 26
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -1.47 contribution 60th of 63 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Mike Croel became a 8-season, 102-game NFL player after going #4. The retained-value model still ranks him 60th of 63 for John Beake because DEN only got 58 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.47 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Beake's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
58
on drafting team · 102 full-career
Games started
54
on drafting team · 84 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
26
modeled; full weighted AV 34
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move John Beake's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every John Beake pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Mike Croel totals -1.47 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 218. Nalen #218 · Tom Nalen · aggregate +10.24 Nalen +10.2 192. Sharpe #192 · Shannon Sharpe · aggregate +9.80 Sharpe +9.8 20. Atwater #20 · Steve Atwater · aggregate +8.48 Atwater +8.5 54. Fletcher #54 · Simon Fletcher · aggregate +3.24 Fletcher +3.2 161. Jackson #161 · Mark Jackson · aggregate +2.17 Jackson +2.2 151. Mobley #151 · Orson Mobley · aggregate +1.30 104. Juriga #104 · Jim Juriga · aggregate +1.24 86. Brooks #86 · Michael Brooks · aggregate +1.05 111. Davidson #111 · Jeff Davidson · aggregate +0.86 136. Lang #136 · Le-Lo Lang · aggregate +0.60 47. Powers #47 · Warren Powers · aggregate +0.58 31. Johnson #31 · Vance Johnson · aggregate +0.58 111. Munford #111 · Marc Munford · aggregate +0.55 180. Bratton #180 · Mel Bratton · aggregate +0.41 89. Russell #89 · Derek Russell · aggregate +0.38 69. Jones #69 · Rondell Jones · aggregate +0.34 174. Kelly #174 · Pat Kelly · aggregate +0.30 115. Lewis #115 · Greg Lewis · aggregate +0.22 182. Kimbrough #182 · Tony Kimbrough · aggregate +0.21 137. Robinson #137 · Frank Robinson · aggregate +0.20 26. Sewell #26 · Steve Sewell · aggregate +0.16 27. Nattiel #27 · Ricky Nattiel · aggregate +0.12 164. Haliburton #164 · Ronnie Haliburton · aggregate +0.11 51. Aldridge #51 · Allen Aldridge · aggregate +0.05 212. By'not'e #212 · Butler By'not'e · aggregate +0.04 169. Williams #169 · Clarence Williams · aggregate -0.04 194. Strozier #194 · Wilbur Strozier · aggregate -0.06 170. Geater #170 · Ron Geater · aggregate -0.12 193. Bostick #193 · Jon Bostick · aggregate -0.14 134. Colorito #134 · Tony Colorito · aggregate -0.18 154. Bonner #154 · Melvin Bonner · aggregate -0.22 194. Cameron #194 · Dallas Cameron · aggregate -0.23 167. Marshall #167 · Warren Marshall · aggregate -0.30 97. McCullough #97 · Jake McCullough · aggregate -0.30 142. Subis #142 · Nick Subis · aggregate -0.30 41. Widell #41 · Doug Widell · aggregate -0.31 152. Stafford #152 · Anthony Stafford · aggregate -0.32 69. Hamilton #69 · Darrell Hamilton · aggregate -0.36 136. Ervin #136 · Corris Ervin · aggregate -0.38 181. Johnson #181 · Jim Johnson · aggregate -0.38 126. Williams #126 · Kevin Williams · aggregate -0.39 192. Frank #192 · Garry Frank · aggregate -0.42 110. McGregor #110 · Keli McGregor · aggregate -0.43 188. Phillips #188 · Ray Phillips · aggregate -0.43 110. Johnson #110 · Chuck Johnson · aggregate -0.43 52. Montgomery #52 · Alton Montgomery · aggregate -0.49 79. Guidry #79 · Kevin Guidry · aggregate -0.50 123. Fuller #123 · Randy Fuller · aggregate -0.53 139. Hinson #139 · Billy Hinson · aggregate -0.68 82. Robinson #82 · Jeroy Robinson · aggregate -0.82 30. Johnson #30 · Reggie Johnson · aggregate -0.88 54. Dronett #54 · Shane Dronett · aggregate -0.90 45. Perry #45 · Gerald Perry · aggregate -0.95 43. Milburn #43 · Glyn Milburn · aggregate -0.96 70. Elam #70 · Jason Elam · aggregate -1.02 210. Burns #210 · Keith Burns · aggregate -1.11 134. Carrington #134 · Darren Carrington · aggregate -1.22 11. Williams #11 · Dan Williams · aggregate -1.23 26. Gregory #26 · Ted Gregory · aggregate -1.40 4. Croel #4 · Mike Croel · aggregate -1.47 Croel -1.5 61. Traylor #61 · Keith Traylor · aggregate -3.91 Traylor -3.9 25. Maddox #25 · Tommy Maddox · aggregate -5.09 Maddox -5.1 98. Robinson #98 · Jeff Robinson · aggregate -6.15 Robinson -6.2 Incremental contribution by season -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 1985 · Steve Sewell · incremental -0.32 1985 · Dallas Cameron · incremental -0.43 1985 · Keli McGregor · incremental -0.87 1985 · Simon Fletcher · incremental -0.90 1985 · Billy Hinson · incremental -1.12 1985 · Vance Johnson · incremental -1.37 1986 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.03 1986 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.19 1986 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.22 1986 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.29 1986 · Orson Mobley · incremental +0.44 1986 · Jim Juriga · incremental -0.03 1986 · Tony Colorito · incremental -0.32 1986 · Ray Phillips · incremental -0.74 1987 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.09 1987 · Marc Munford · incremental +0.14 1987 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.22 1987 · Orson Mobley · incremental +0.36 1987 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.42 1987 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.49 1987 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental -0.10 1987 · Michael Brooks · incremental -0.13 1987 · Wilbur Strozier · incremental -0.30 1987 · Warren Marshall · incremental -0.54 1988 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.03 1988 · Marc Munford · incremental +0.08 1988 · Michael Brooks · incremental +0.13 1988 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.29 1988 · Pat Kelly · incremental +0.32 1988 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.40 1988 · Orson Mobley · incremental +0.57 1988 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.62 1988 · Jim Juriga · incremental +0.68 1988 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental -0.08 1988 · Gerald Perry · incremental -0.66 1988 · Corris Ervin · incremental -0.69 1988 · Garry Frank · incremental -0.71 1988 · Kevin Guidry · incremental -0.82 1988 · Ted Gregory · incremental -2.21 1989 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.02 1989 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental +0.08 1989 · Pat Kelly · incremental +0.11 1989 · Warren Powers · incremental +0.11 1989 · Michael Brooks · incremental +0.27 1989 · Mel Bratton · incremental +0.30 1989 · Marc Munford · incremental +0.34 1989 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.35 1989 · Orson Mobley · incremental +0.41 1989 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.55 1989 · Steve Atwater · incremental +0.61 1989 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.66 1989 · Jim Juriga · incremental +0.69 1989 · Darrell Hamilton · incremental -0.04 1989 · Jake McCullough · incremental -0.44 1989 · Doug Widell · incremental -0.52 1989 · Anthony Stafford · incremental -0.57 1989 · Gerald Perry · incremental -0.58 1989 · Darren Carrington · incremental -1.95 1990 · Ronnie Haliburton · incremental +0.05 1990 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental +0.08 1990 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.09 1990 · Le-Lo Lang · incremental +0.11 1990 · Jeff Davidson · incremental +0.14 1990 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.22 1990 · Michael Brooks · incremental +0.24 1990 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.28 1990 · Orson Mobley · incremental +0.32 1990 · Marc Munford · incremental +0.32 1990 · Mel Bratton · incremental +0.39 1990 · Warren Powers · incremental +0.41 1990 · Jim Juriga · incremental +0.50 1990 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.60 1990 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.65 1990 · Steve Atwater · incremental +1.50 1990 · Doug Widell · incremental -0.01 1990 · Jake McCullough · incremental -0.07 1990 · Gerald Perry · incremental -0.30 1990 · Darrell Hamilton · incremental -0.43 1990 · Alton Montgomery · incremental -0.58 1990 · Jeroy Robinson · incremental -1.31 1991 · Derek Russell · incremental +0.05 1991 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.10 1991 · Steve Sewell · incremental +0.15 1991 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental +0.15 1991 · Greg Lewis · incremental +0.19 1991 · Michael Brooks · incremental +0.24 1991 · Le-Lo Lang · incremental +0.29 1991 · Warren Powers · incremental +0.35 1991 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.37 1991 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.45 1991 · Jeff Davidson · incremental +0.60 1991 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.66 1991 · Steve Atwater · incremental +3.54 1991 · Doug Widell · incremental -0.00 1991 · Alton Montgomery · incremental -0.01 1991 · Ronnie Haliburton · incremental -0.01 1991 · Darrell Hamilton · incremental -0.12 1991 · Reggie Johnson · incremental -0.44 1991 · Nick Subis · incremental -0.47 1991 · Mike Croel · incremental -1.19 1991 · Keith Traylor · incremental -2.69 1992 · Doug Widell · incremental +0.00 1992 · Ricky Nattiel · incremental +0.03 1992 · Frank Robinson · incremental +0.12 1992 · Derek Russell · incremental +0.13 1992 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.16 1992 · Greg Lewis · incremental +0.18 1992 · Le-Lo Lang · incremental +0.25 1992 · Mark Jackson · incremental +0.55 1992 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.60 1992 · Jeff Davidson · incremental +0.60 1992 · Michael Brooks · incremental +1.06 1992 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +1.43 1992 · Steve Atwater · incremental +3.42 1992 · Alton Montgomery · incremental -0.12 1992 · Ron Geater · incremental -0.27 1992 · Jon Bostick · incremental -0.28 1992 · Reggie Johnson · incremental -0.29 1992 · Keith Traylor · incremental -0.34 1992 · Mike Croel · incremental -0.36 1992 · Shane Dronett · incremental -0.52 1992 · Jim Johnson · incremental -0.67 1992 · Chuck Johnson · incremental -0.69 1992 · Tommy Maddox · incremental -6.82 1993 · Frank Robinson · incremental +0.16 1993 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.19 1993 · Rondell Jones · incremental +0.20 1993 · Tony Kimbrough · incremental +0.23 1993 · Derek Russell · incremental +0.25 1993 · Le-Lo Lang · incremental +0.33 1993 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.62 1993 · Steve Atwater · incremental +1.57 1993 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +3.68 1993 · Clarence Williams · incremental -0.27 1993 · Mike Croel · incremental -0.39 1993 · Shane Dronett · incremental -0.40 1993 · Melvin Bonner · incremental -0.41 1993 · Reggie Johnson · incremental -0.56 1993 · Kevin Williams · incremental -0.67 1993 · Dan Williams · incremental -0.79 1993 · Glyn Milburn · incremental -0.84 1993 · Tommy Maddox · incremental -1.01 1993 · Jason Elam · incremental -4.10 1993 · Jeff Robinson · incremental -8.12 1994 · Rondell Jones · incremental +0.01 1994 · Butler By'not'e · incremental +0.05 1994 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.13 1994 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.13 1994 · Tony Kimbrough · incremental +0.15 1994 · Derek Russell · incremental +0.21 1994 · Steve Atwater · incremental +0.55 1994 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.57 1994 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.60 1994 · Allen Aldridge · incremental -0.20 1994 · Mike Croel · incremental -0.24 1994 · Dan Williams · incremental -0.30 1994 · Shane Dronett · incremental -0.35 1994 · Jeff Robinson · incremental -0.45 1994 · Glyn Milburn · incremental -0.84 1994 · Keith Burns · incremental -0.87 1994 · Randy Fuller · incremental -0.88 1995 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.03 1995 · Allen Aldridge · incremental +0.09 1995 · Vance Johnson · incremental +0.10 1995 · Rondell Jones · incremental +0.20 1995 · Glyn Milburn · incremental +0.29 1995 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.44 1995 · Simon Fletcher · incremental +0.60 1995 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.68 1995 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +1.49 1995 · Steve Atwater · incremental +1.57 1995 · Shane Dronett · incremental -0.12 1995 · Dan Williams · incremental -0.19 1995 · Jeff Robinson · incremental -0.45 1996 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.10 1996 · Allen Aldridge · incremental +0.11 1996 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.14 1996 · Rondell Jones · incremental +0.23 1996 · Steve Atwater · incremental +0.66 1996 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.74 1996 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +2.76 1996 · Jeff Robinson · incremental -0.45 1996 · Dan Williams · incremental -0.55 1997 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.10 1997 · Allen Aldridge · incremental +0.11 1997 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.13 1997 · Steve Atwater · incremental +0.53 1997 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.86 1997 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +2.84 1997 · Keith Traylor · incremental -0.88 1998 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.10 1998 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.13 1998 · Steve Atwater · incremental +0.63 1998 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.86 1998 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +2.74 1998 · Keith Traylor · incremental -0.74 1999 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.12 1999 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.17 1999 · Tom Nalen · incremental +1.81 1999 · Keith Traylor · incremental -0.75 2000 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.07 2000 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.11 2000 · Tom Nalen · incremental +4.01 2000 · Keith Traylor · incremental -0.78 2001 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.03 2001 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.43 2001 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.71 2002 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.14 2002 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.35 2002 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.50 2002 · Keith Burns · incremental -0.39 2003 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.10 2003 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.12 2003 · Shannon Sharpe · incremental +0.60 2003 · Tom Nalen · incremental +4.01 2004 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.13 2004 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.77 2005 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.14 2005 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.77 2005 · Keith Burns · incremental -0.48 2006 · Keith Burns · incremental +0.09 2006 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.12 2006 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.71 2007 · Jason Elam · incremental +0.13 2007 · Tom Nalen · incremental +0.24 Atwater +3.5 Croel -1.2 Traylor -2.7 Atwater +3.4 Croel -0.4 Maddox -6.8 Sharpe +3.7 Croel -0.4 Elam -4.1 Robinson -8.1 Croel -0.2 Sharpe +2.8 Sharpe +2.8 Sharpe +2.7 Nalen +4.0 Nalen +4.0 1985 6 players 1986 8 players 1987 10 players 1988 15 players 1989 19 players 1990 22 players 1991 21 players 1992 23 players 1993 20 players 1994 17 players 1995 13 players 1996 9 players 1997 7 players 1998 6 players 1999 4 players 2000 4 players 2001 3 players 2002 4 players 2003 4 players 2004 2 players 2005 3 players 2006 3 players 2007 2 players
How much retained production did Mike Croel return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Mike Croel since 2010 (10 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 +1.5 +2 +2.5 Model value above slot 9. Kuechly Luke Kuechly · model value +2.8 +2.8 3. Anderson Will Anderson · model value +1.6 2. Miller Von Miller · model value +1.4 5. White Devin White · model value +0.2 9. Barr Anthony Barr · model value +0.1 7. Hines-Allen Josh Hines-Allen · model value 0 5. Mack Khalil Mack · model value -0.2 8. McClain Rolando McClain · model value -0.6 8. Simmons Isaiah Simmons · model value -0.7 4. Croel Mike Croel · model value -0.7 -0.7 6. Mingo Barkevious Mingo · model value -1.6 Mike Croel
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'92 '94 '96 '98 0 21 42 63 84 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.