Terrible-3.01 contribution26th of 27 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Joe Haden became a 12-season, 158-game NFL player after going #7. The retained-value model still ranks him 26th of 27 for Tom Heckert because CLE only got 90 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.01. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Heckert's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
90
on drafting team · 158 full-career
Games started
81
on drafting team · 148 full-career
Snap-z
4.3
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
47
modeled; full weighted AV 62
AV / 1k snaps
8.3
3,624 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.7
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
3 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Tom Heckert's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Heckert pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Joe Haden totals -3.01. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJoe HadenGM total -15.7Joe Haden by season -6.4
How much retained production did Joe Haden return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Joe Haden since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Joe HadenSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2010
CLE
16
7
—
—
5
—
2011
CLE
15
15
—
—
7
—
2012
CLE
11
11
—
—
5
—
2013
CLE
15
15
1,203
1.7
12
10.0
·
2014
CLE
15
14
1,160
1.8
11
9.5
2015
CLE
5
5
311
-0.5
2
6.4
2016
CLE
13
13
950
1.3
5
5.3
2017
PIT
11
10
654
0.4
4
6.1
2018
PIT
15
15
1,033
1.6
6
5.8
2019
PIT
16
16
1,116
1.9
11
9.9
2020
PIT
14
14
894
1.4
6
6.7
2021
PIT
12
9
670
0.7
4
6.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
