Terrible-1.19 contribution22nd of 27 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Mitchell Schwartz became a 9-season, 134-game NFL player after going #37. The retained-value model still ranks him 22nd of 27 for Tom Heckert because CLE only got 64 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.19. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Heckert's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
64
on drafting team · 134 full-career
Games started
64
on drafting team · 134 full-career
Snap-z
3.8
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
25
modeled; full weighted AV 75
AV / 1k snaps
5.2
3,446 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
1 full-career · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Tom Heckert's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Heckert pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Mitchell Schwartz totals -1.19. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMitchell SchwartzGM total -15.7Mitchell Schwartz by season -2.2
How much retained production did Mitchell Schwartz return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Mitchell Schwartz since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Mitchell SchwartzSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
CLE
16
16
—
—
7
—
2013
CLE
16
16
1,168
1.2
6
5.1
2014
CLE
16
16
1,117
1.3
6
5.4
2015
CLE
16
16
1,161
1.3
6
5.2
2016
KC
16
16
1,052
1.1
10
9.5
2017
KC
16
16
1,113
1.5
15
13.5
2018
KC
16
16
1,141
1.4
19
16.7
2019
KC
16
16
1,128
1.4
15
13.3
2020
KC
6
5
380
-0.2
3
7.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
