Good+0.08 contribution18th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Good pick
Caleb Williams was Ryan Poles's 18th-best of 34 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.08. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Poles's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
34
on drafting team
Games started
34
on drafting team
Snap-z
3.5
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
27
modeled; full weighted AV 26
AV / 1k snaps
11.9
2,266 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ryan Poles's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Poles pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Caleb Williams totals +0.08. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationCaleb WilliamsGM total +4.6Caleb Williams by season +0.3
How much retained production did Caleb Williams return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Caleb Williams since 2010 (26 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (2 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2024
CHI
17
17
1,123
1.7
12
10.7
2025
CHI
17
17
1,143
1.8
15
13.1
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
