All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Jeff Burris across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 144
Games started 120
Weighted career AV 43
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 10
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 54
Team starts 38
On-team AV 18
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -1.64 contribution 63rd of 68 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Jeff Burris became a 10-season, 144-game NFL player after going #27. The retained-value model still ranks him 63rd of 68 for John Butler because BUF only got 54 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.64 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Butler's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
54
on drafting team · 144 full-career
Games started
38
on drafting team · 120 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
18
modeled; full weighted AV 43
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move John Butler's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every John Butler pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jeff Burris totals -1.64 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 24. Moulds #24 · Eric Moulds · aggregate +3.44 Moulds +3.4 14. Brown #14 · Ruben Brown · aggregate +2.90 Brown +2.9 244. Riemersma #244 · Jay Riemersma · aggregate +1.51 28. Smith #28 · Thomas Smith · aggregate +1.38 61. Johnson #61 · Lonnie Johnson · aggregate +1.32 244. Holmes #244 · Darick Holmes · aggregate +1.16 202. Zeigler #202 · Dusty Zeigler · aggregate +1.08 64. Rogers #64 · Sam Rogers · aggregate +1.04 53. Northern #53 · Gabe Northern · aggregate +1.03 144. Holecek #144 · John Holecek · aggregate +0.92 53. Price #53 · Peerless Price · aggregate +0.92 230. Jackson #230 · Sheldon Jackson · aggregate +0.88 111. Copeland #111 · Russell Copeland · aggregate +0.75 131. Linton #131 · Jonathan Linton · aggregate +0.64 249. Smedley #249 · Eric Smedley · aggregate +0.61 131. Cline #131 · Tony Cline · aggregate +0.55 237. Brandenburg #237 · Dan Brandenburg · aggregate +0.50 81. Perry #81 · Marlo Perry · aggregate +0.49 68. Hicks #68 · Robert Hicks · aggregate +0.38 98. Louchiey #98 · Corey Louchiey · aggregate +0.35 39. Cowart #39 · Sam Cowart · aggregate +0.34 194. Larsen #194 · Leif Larsen · aggregate +0.34 109. Irvin #109 · Ken Irvin · aggregate +0.31 122. Collins #122 · Bobby Collins · aggregate +0.27 119. Newman #119 · Keith Newman · aggregate +0.24 76. Kerner #76 · Marlon Kerner · aggregate +0.23 238. Loud #238 · Kamil Loud · aggregate +0.21 226. Fitzgerald #226 · Pat Fitzgerald · aggregate +0.16 96. Covington #96 · Damien Covington · aggregate +0.14 120. Nails #120 · Jamie Nails · aggregate +0.06 221. Johnson #221 · Filmel Johnson · aggregate +0.03 113. Armour #113 · Justin Armour · aggregate +0.01 156. Jackson #156 · Raymond Jackson · aggregate +0.01 233. Haddad #233 · Drew Haddad · aggregate +0.00 251. Polk #251 · DaShon Polk · aggregate -0.07 188. Abrams #188 · Anthony Abrams · aggregate -0.07 185. Clavelle #185 · Shannon Clavelle · aggregate -0.07 194. Hatcher #194 · Armon Hatcher · aggregate -0.07 196. Neal #196 · Leon Neal · aggregate -0.10 195. Harris #195 · Willie Harris · aggregate -0.12 192. Knox #192 · Kevin Knox · aggregate -0.12 121. Black #121 · Avion Black · aggregate -0.15 153. Woodson #153 · Sean Woodson · aggregate -0.20 185. Spriggs #185 · Marcus Spriggs · aggregate -0.21 160. Coleman #160 · Fred Coleman · aggregate -0.22 139. Savage #139 · Sebastian Savage · aggregate -0.28 198. Allotey #198 · Victor Allotey · aggregate -0.30 130. Crocker #130 · Sean Crocker · aggregate -0.31 158. Ofodile #158 · A.J. Ofodile · aggregate -0.42 156. Foreman #156 · Jay Foreman · aggregate -0.45 89. Moore #89 · Corey Moore · aggregate -0.45 120. Moran #120 · Sean Moran · aggregate -0.53 136. Devlin #136 · Mike Devlin · aggregate -0.60 26. Flowers #26 · Erik Flowers · aggregate -0.68 86. Bryson #86 · Shawn Bryson · aggregate -0.85 48. Brooks #48 · Bucky Brooks · aggregate -0.90 87. Stevens #87 · Matt Stevens · aggregate -1.14 248. Fisher #248 · Bryce Fisher · aggregate -1.16 52. Wiley #52 · Marcellus Wiley · aggregate -1.22 167. Lacina #167 · Corbin Lacina · aggregate -1.25 58. Tillman #58 · Travares Tillman · aggregate -1.30 23. Smith #23 · Antowain Smith · aggregate -1.31 27. Burris #27 · Jeff Burris · aggregate -1.64 Burris -1.6 156. Morris #156 · Sammy Morris · aggregate -2.33 Morris -2.3 221. Nutten #221 · Tom Nutten · aggregate -2.69 Nutten -2.7 55. Parrella #55 · John Parrella · aggregate -3.88 Parrella -3.9 23. Winfield #23 · Antoine Winfield · aggregate -4.13 Winfield -4.1 45. Collins #45 · Todd Collins · aggregate -5.31 Collins -5.3 Incremental contribution by season -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 1993 · Russell Copeland · incremental +0.25 1993 · Willie Harris · incremental -0.25 1993 · Corbin Lacina · incremental -0.26 1993 · Thomas Smith · incremental -0.34 1993 · Sebastian Savage · incremental -0.55 1993 · Mike Devlin · incremental -0.75 1993 · John Parrella · incremental -6.08 1994 · Lonnie Johnson · incremental +0.07 1994 · Filmel Johnson · incremental +0.16 1994 · Russell Copeland · incremental +0.30 1994 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.42 1994 · Corey Louchiey · incremental -0.03 1994 · Marlo Perry · incremental -0.03 1994 · Mike Devlin · incremental -0.04 1994 · Anthony Abrams · incremental -0.21 1994 · Kevin Knox · incremental -0.26 1994 · Sam Rogers · incremental -0.40 1994 · Corbin Lacina · incremental -0.51 1994 · Sean Crocker · incremental -0.60 1994 · A.J. Ofodile · incremental -0.89 1994 · Jeff Burris · incremental -1.01 1994 · Bucky Brooks · incremental -1.48 1995 · Damien Covington · incremental +0.03 1995 · Marlon Kerner · incremental +0.07 1995 · Marlo Perry · incremental +0.09 1995 · Corey Louchiey · incremental +0.18 1995 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.25 1995 · Tony Cline · incremental +0.31 1995 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.43 1995 · Russell Copeland · incremental +0.52 1995 · Lonnie Johnson · incremental +0.61 1995 · Darick Holmes · incremental +0.80 1995 · Mike Devlin · incremental -0.04 1995 · John Holecek · incremental -0.08 1995 · Filmel Johnson · incremental -0.22 1995 · Shannon Clavelle · incremental -0.22 1995 · Corbin Lacina · incremental -0.25 1995 · Ken Irvin · incremental -0.26 1995 · Jeff Burris · incremental -0.33 1995 · Ruben Brown · incremental -1.17 1995 · Todd Collins · incremental -2.48 1995 · Tom Nutten · incremental -4.16 1996 · Damien Covington · incremental +0.06 1996 · Eric Smedley · incremental +0.11 1996 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.13 1996 · Russell Copeland · incremental +0.16 1996 · Marlon Kerner · incremental +0.18 1996 · Marlo Perry · incremental +0.18 1996 · Corey Louchiey · incremental +0.22 1996 · Gabe Northern · incremental +0.24 1996 · Ruben Brown · incremental +0.28 1996 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.34 1996 · Tony Cline · incremental +0.41 1996 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.46 1996 · Lonnie Johnson · incremental +0.55 1996 · Darick Holmes · incremental +0.58 1996 · Dan Brandenburg · incremental -0.01 1996 · Dusty Zeigler · incremental -0.01 1996 · Jay Riemersma · incremental -0.07 1996 · Sean Moran · incremental -0.10 1996 · Raymond Jackson · incremental -0.15 1996 · Corbin Lacina · incremental -0.21 1996 · Leon Neal · incremental -0.22 1996 · Eric Moulds · incremental -0.47 1996 · Jeff Burris · incremental -0.67 1996 · Todd Collins · incremental -1.45 1996 · Matt Stevens · incremental -1.87 1997 · Pat Fitzgerald · incremental +0.01 1997 · Raymond Jackson · incremental +0.07 1997 · Damien Covington · incremental +0.10 1997 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.12 1997 · Marlon Kerner · incremental +0.13 1997 · Tony Cline · incremental +0.14 1997 · Marlo Perry · incremental +0.18 1997 · Corey Louchiey · incremental +0.22 1997 · Gabe Northern · incremental +0.23 1997 · Dan Brandenburg · incremental +0.25 1997 · John Holecek · incremental +0.26 1997 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.29 1997 · Darick Holmes · incremental +0.30 1997 · Ruben Brown · incremental +0.31 1997 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.34 1997 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.37 1997 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.43 1997 · Dusty Zeigler · incremental +0.46 1997 · Eric Smedley · incremental +0.48 1997 · Lonnie Johnson · incremental +0.56 1997 · Marcus Spriggs · incremental -0.04 1997 · Jamie Nails · incremental -0.06 1997 · Sean Woodson · incremental -0.43 1997 · Marcellus Wiley · incremental -0.47 1997 · Sean Moran · incremental -0.49 1997 · Jeff Burris · incremental -0.57 1997 · Corbin Lacina · incremental -0.60 1997 · Antowain Smith · incremental -1.01 1997 · Todd Collins · incremental -4.28 1998 · Marlon Kerner · incremental +0.01 1998 · Darick Holmes · incremental +0.06 1998 · Robert Hicks · incremental +0.06 1998 · Jamie Nails · incremental +0.08 1998 · Raymond Jackson · incremental +0.11 1998 · Kamil Loud · incremental +0.13 1998 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.18 1998 · Marlo Perry · incremental +0.21 1998 · Jonathan Linton · incremental +0.23 1998 · Ruben Brown · incremental +0.29 1998 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.31 1998 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.34 1998 · John Holecek · incremental +0.34 1998 · Dan Brandenburg · incremental +0.35 1998 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.38 1998 · Eric Smedley · incremental +0.40 1998 · Lonnie Johnson · incremental +0.54 1998 · Gabe Northern · incremental +0.55 1998 · Dusty Zeigler · incremental +0.61 1998 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.68 1998 · Marcus Spriggs · incremental -0.00 1998 · Sean Moran · incremental -0.12 1998 · Sam Cowart · incremental -0.23 1998 · Marcellus Wiley · incremental -0.27 1998 · Fred Coleman · incremental -0.42 1998 · Victor Allotey · incremental -0.53 1998 · Antowain Smith · incremental -0.58 1999 · Jamie Nails · incremental +0.08 1999 · Bobby Collins · incremental +0.15 1999 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.15 1999 · Kamil Loud · incremental +0.16 1999 · Marlo Perry · incremental +0.22 1999 · Dan Brandenburg · incremental +0.28 1999 · Robert Hicks · incremental +0.29 1999 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.40 1999 · John Holecek · incremental +0.42 1999 · Jonathan Linton · incremental +0.47 1999 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.47 1999 · Thomas Smith · incremental +0.47 1999 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.51 1999 · Dusty Zeigler · incremental +0.58 1999 · Gabe Northern · incremental +0.62 1999 · Sheldon Jackson · incremental +0.63 1999 · Ruben Brown · incremental +1.02 1999 · Sean Moran · incremental -0.02 1999 · Bryce Fisher · incremental -0.05 1999 · Marcus Spriggs · incremental -0.06 1999 · Sam Cowart · incremental -0.09 1999 · Keith Newman · incremental -0.12 1999 · Jay Foreman · incremental -0.15 1999 · Peerless Price · incremental -0.16 1999 · Marcellus Wiley · incremental -0.19 1999 · Shawn Bryson · incremental -0.19 1999 · Armon Hatcher · incremental -0.23 1999 · Antowain Smith · incremental -0.40 1999 · Antoine Winfield · incremental -3.83 2000 · DaShon Polk · incremental +0.02 2000 · Jamie Nails · incremental +0.04 2000 · Leif Larsen · incremental +0.10 2000 · Drew Haddad · incremental +0.15 2000 · Bobby Collins · incremental +0.17 2000 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.18 2000 · Robert Hicks · incremental +0.20 2000 · Keith Newman · incremental +0.21 2000 · Sam Rogers · incremental +0.27 2000 · Jonathan Linton · incremental +0.27 2000 · Peerless Price · incremental +0.38 2000 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.42 2000 · John Holecek · incremental +0.46 2000 · Sheldon Jackson · incremental +0.53 2000 · Sam Cowart · incremental +0.87 2000 · Ruben Brown · incremental +1.03 2000 · Eric Moulds · incremental +1.08 2000 · Avion Black · incremental -0.15 2000 · Jay Foreman · incremental -0.15 2000 · Antowain Smith · incremental -0.17 2000 · Marcus Spriggs · incremental -0.22 2000 · Erik Flowers · incremental -0.29 2000 · Antoine Winfield · incremental -0.62 2000 · Shawn Bryson · incremental -0.72 2000 · Corey Moore · incremental -0.78 2000 · Marcellus Wiley · incremental -0.94 2000 · Travares Tillman · incremental -1.01 2000 · Sammy Morris · incremental -2.43 2001 · Ken Irvin · incremental +0.12 2001 · Keith Newman · incremental +0.20 2001 · Sheldon Jackson · incremental +0.31 2001 · Leif Larsen · incremental +0.37 2001 · Peerless Price · incremental +0.38 2001 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.49 2001 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.54 2001 · Ruben Brown · incremental +1.01 2001 · Sam Cowart · incremental -0.01 2001 · Avion Black · incremental -0.11 2001 · DaShon Polk · incremental -0.19 2001 · Jay Foreman · incremental -0.35 2001 · Shawn Bryson · incremental -0.35 2001 · Sammy Morris · incremental -0.51 2001 · Erik Flowers · incremental -0.70 2001 · Antoine Winfield · incremental -0.77 2001 · Travares Tillman · incremental -1.01 2001 · Bryce Fisher · incremental -1.78 2002 · DaShon Polk · incremental +0.11 2002 · Keith Newman · incremental +0.13 2002 · Peerless Price · incremental +0.43 2002 · Jay Riemersma · incremental +0.52 2002 · Ruben Brown · incremental +1.07 2002 · Eric Moulds · incremental +1.09 2002 · Shawn Bryson · incremental -0.05 2002 · Sammy Morris · incremental -0.19 2002 · Antoine Winfield · incremental -0.68 2003 · DaShon Polk · incremental +0.11 2003 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.40 2003 · Ruben Brown · incremental +0.98 2003 · Sammy Morris · incremental -0.31 2003 · Antoine Winfield · incremental -0.89 2004 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.57 2004 · Drew Haddad · incremental -0.21 2005 · Eric Moulds · incremental +0.49 2006 · Peerless Price · incremental +0.33 2007 · Peerless Price · incremental +0.09 Parrella -6.1 Burris -1.0 Burris -0.3 Collins -2.5 Nutten -4.2 Burris -0.7 Stevens -1.9 Burris -0.6 Collins -4.3 Winfield -3.8 Morris -2.4 Fisher -1.8 1993 7 players 1994 15 players 1995 20 players 1996 25 players 1997 29 players 1998 27 players 1999 29 players 2000 28 players 2001 18 players 2002 9 players 2003 5 players 2004 2 players 2005 1 player 2006 1 player 2007 1 player
How much retained production did Jeff Burris return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Jeff Burris since 2010 (20 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 Model value above slot 29. Smith Harrison Smith · model value +1.1 27. McCourty Devin McCourty · model value +1 25. Rhodes Xavier Rhodes · model value +0.5 27. Bucannon Deone Bucannon · model value +0.4 24. Arnold Terrion Arnold · model value +0.1 32. Elam Matt Elam · model value +0.1 24. Banks Deonte Banks · model value 0 22. Trufant Desmond Trufant · model value -0.1 25. Verrett Jason Verrett · model value -0.1 27. Smith Jimmy Smith · model value -0.1 31. Hill Daxton Hill · model value -0.3 26. II Greg Newsome II · model value -0.3 29. Stokes Eric Stokes · model value -0.5 32. Cine Lewis Cine · model value -0.5 27. Burris Jeff Burris · model value -0.7 -0.7 22. Farley Caleb Farley · model value -0.7 30. Ward Jimmie Ward · model value -0.8 24. Dennard Darqueze Dennard · model value -1.1 29. Wilson Kyle Wilson · model value -1.1 31. Roby Bradley Roby · model value -1.1 32. Robinson Patrick Robinson · model value -1.2 Jeff Burris
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '03 0 30 60 90 120 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.