All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Lincoln Kennedy across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 169
Games started 141
Weighted career AV 74
Pro Bowls 3
AP1 All-Pro 1
Career seasons 11
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 48
Team starts 22
On-team AV 12
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -4.20 contribution 58th of 62 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Lincoln Kennedy became a 11-season, 169-game NFL player after going #9. The retained-value model still ranks him 58th of 62 for Ken Herock because ATL only got 48 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.20 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ken Herock's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
48
on drafting team · 169 full-career
Games started
22
on drafting team · 141 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
12
modeled; full weighted AV 74
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
1 full-career · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Ken Herock's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Ken Herock pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lincoln Kennedy totals -4.20 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 201. Anderson #201 · Jamal Anderson · aggregate +4.12 Anderson +4.1 87. Gardner #87 · Moe Gardner · aggregate +2.65 Gardner +2.6 181. Hall #181 · Travis Hall · aggregate +2.41 Hall +2.4 51. Smith #51 · Chuck Smith · aggregate +2.32 Smith +2.3 140. Hoover #140 · Houston Hoover · aggregate +2.03 Hoover +2.0 166. Haynes #166 · Michael Haynes · aggregate +1.64 154. Dixon #154 · Floyd Dixon · aggregate +1.45 145. Pegram #145 · Erric Pegram · aggregate +0.83 45. Emanuel #45 · Bert Emanuel · aggregate +0.77 62. Jones #62 · Keith Jones · aggregate +0.60 138. Thomas #138 · George Thomas · aggregate +0.59 181. Reid #181 · Michael Reid · aggregate +0.54 178. Walker #178 · Darnell Walker · aggregate +0.38 38. Harper #38 · Roger Harper · aggregate +0.36 172. Mitchell #172 · Brian Mitchell · aggregate +0.34 67. Alexander #67 · Harold Alexander · aggregate +0.25 145. Preston #145 · Roell Preston · aggregate +0.24 17. Green #17 · Tim Green · aggregate +0.23 151. Lyons #151 · Mitch Lyons · aggregate +0.13 245. Burrough #245 · John Burrough · aggregate +0.13 111. Klein #111 · Perry Klein · aggregate -0.02 158. Ray #158 · Terry Ray · aggregate -0.02 121. George #121 · Ron George · aggregate -0.08 27. Collins #27 · Shawn Collins · aggregate -0.17 159. Williams #159 · Keith Williams · aggregate -0.18 172. Johnson #172 · Undra Johnson · aggregate -0.24 72. Phillips #72 · Anthony Phillips · aggregate -0.25 125. Mraz #125 · Mark Mraz · aggregate -0.25 138. Houston #138 · Harrison Houston · aggregate -0.31 55. Barnett #55 · Oliver Barnett · aggregate -0.32 139. Pringle #139 · Mike Pringle · aggregate -0.33 182. Paulk #182 · Tim Paulk · aggregate -0.33 186. Tucker #186 · Mark Tucker · aggregate -0.38 121. Redding #121 · Reggie Redding · aggregate -0.44 153. Kiser #153 · Paul Kiser · aggregate -0.56 118. Davis #118 · Mitch Davis · aggregate -0.58 114. Goode #114 · James Goode · aggregate -0.62 27. Conner #27 · Darion Conner · aggregate -0.68 99. Kalaniuvalu #99 · Alai Kalaniuvalu · aggregate -0.72 41. Davis #41 · Ron Davis · aggregate -0.73 77. Styles #77 · Lorenzo Styles · aggregate -0.76 56. Higdon #56 · Alex Higdon · aggregate -0.77 26. Sr. #26 · Devin Bush Sr. · aggregate -0.82 97. Dyke #97 · Ralph Van Dyke · aggregate -0.85 28. Cotton #28 · Marcus Cotton · aggregate -0.85 73. Dinkins #73 · Howard Dinkins · aggregate -0.86 19. Smith #19 · Tony Smith · aggregate -0.95 31. Flowers #31 · Kenny Flowers · aggregate -1.13 38. Norwood #38 · Ralph Norwood · aggregate -1.21 13. Miller #13 · Chris Miller · aggregate -1.44 13. Pritchard #13 · Mike Pritchard · aggregate -1.62 3. Pickens #3 · Bruce Pickens · aggregate -1.94 20. Broussard #20 · Steve Broussard · aggregate -2.03 Broussard -2.0 145. Sadowski #145 · Troy Sadowski · aggregate -2.05 Sadowski -2.0 104. Smith #104 · Frankie Smith · aggregate -2.05 Smith -2.0 8. Whitfield #8 · Bob Whitfield · aggregate -2.09 Whitfield -2.1 110. Dimry #110 · Charles Dimry · aggregate -2.48 Dimry -2.5 9. Kennedy #9 · Lincoln Kennedy · aggregate -4.20 Kennedy -4.2 2. Casillas #2 · Tony Casillas · aggregate -4.53 Casillas -4.5 1. Bruce #1 · Aundray Bruce · aggregate -5.90 Bruce -5.9 5. Sanders #5 · Deion Sanders · aggregate -6.46 Sanders -6.5 33. Favre #33 · Brett Favre · aggregate -9.67 Favre -9.7 Incremental contribution by season -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 1986 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.50 1986 · Keith Williams · incremental -0.30 1986 · Tim Green · incremental -0.54 1986 · Tony Casillas · incremental -4.87 1987 · Tim Green · incremental +0.10 1987 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.14 1987 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.48 1987 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.38 1987 · Mark Mraz · incremental -0.45 1987 · Tony Casillas · incremental -0.45 1987 · Paul Kiser · incremental -0.94 1987 · Kenny Flowers · incremental -1.18 1987 · Ralph Van Dyke · incremental -1.38 1988 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.06 1988 · Tim Green · incremental +0.10 1988 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.25 1988 · Houston Hoover · incremental +0.47 1988 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.52 1988 · George Thomas · incremental -0.02 1988 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.29 1988 · Marcus Cotton · incremental -0.80 1988 · Tony Casillas · incremental -0.95 1988 · Charles Dimry · incremental -1.14 1988 · Alex Higdon · incremental -1.38 1988 · Aundray Bruce · incremental -6.98 1989 · Tim Green · incremental +0.21 1989 · George Thomas · incremental +0.23 1989 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.25 1989 · Keith Jones · incremental +0.28 1989 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.38 1989 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.40 1989 · Houston Hoover · incremental +0.70 1989 · Shawn Collins · incremental -0.18 1989 · Marcus Cotton · incremental -0.24 1989 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.36 1989 · Undra Johnson · incremental -0.44 1989 · Kenny Flowers · incremental -0.52 1989 · Charles Dimry · incremental -0.89 1989 · Deion Sanders · incremental -0.91 1989 · Tony Casillas · incremental -1.00 1989 · Troy Sadowski · incremental -1.04 1989 · Aundray Bruce · incremental -1.35 1989 · Ralph Norwood · incremental -1.89 1990 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.12 1990 · Tim Green · incremental +0.22 1990 · George Thomas · incremental +0.30 1990 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.34 1990 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.35 1990 · Keith Jones · incremental +0.35 1990 · Houston Hoover · incremental +0.57 1990 · Shawn Collins · incremental -0.05 1990 · Oliver Barnett · incremental -0.07 1990 · Tony Casillas · incremental -0.19 1990 · Marcus Cotton · incremental -0.20 1990 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.30 1990 · Reggie Redding · incremental -0.36 1990 · Darion Conner · incremental -0.54 1990 · Mike Pringle · incremental -0.57 1990 · Aundray Bruce · incremental -0.75 1990 · Deion Sanders · incremental -1.22 1990 · Charles Dimry · incremental -1.74 1990 · Steve Broussard · incremental -1.96 1990 · Troy Sadowski · incremental -2.26 1991 · Shawn Collins · incremental +0.00 1991 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.03 1991 · Keith Jones · incremental +0.11 1991 · Tim Green · incremental +0.22 1991 · Floyd Dixon · incremental +0.22 1991 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.22 1991 · Erric Pegram · incremental +0.22 1991 · George Thomas · incremental +0.35 1991 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.57 1991 · Houston Hoover · incremental +0.70 1991 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.71 1991 · Oliver Barnett · incremental -0.09 1991 · Darion Conner · incremental -0.16 1991 · Bruce Pickens · incremental -0.26 1991 · Reggie Redding · incremental -0.36 1991 · Aundray Bruce · incremental -0.54 1991 · Mark Tucker · incremental -0.66 1991 · Steve Broussard · incremental -0.67 1991 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.85 1991 · James Goode · incremental -1.06 1991 · Mike Pritchard · incremental -1.39 1991 · Deion Sanders · incremental -2.26 1991 · Brett Favre · incremental -15.04 1992 · George Thomas · incremental +0.11 1992 · Tim Green · incremental +0.16 1992 · Erric Pegram · incremental +0.20 1992 · Michael Reid · incremental +0.24 1992 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.28 1992 · Keith Jones · incremental +0.33 1992 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.50 1992 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.70 1992 · Houston Hoover · incremental +0.75 1992 · Chuck Smith · incremental -0.04 1992 · Darion Conner · incremental -0.11 1992 · Terry Ray · incremental -0.11 1992 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.22 1992 · Oliver Barnett · incremental -0.23 1992 · Steve Broussard · incremental -0.44 1992 · Tim Paulk · incremental -0.60 1992 · Mike Pritchard · incremental -0.66 1992 · Howard Dinkins · incremental -0.75 1992 · Tony Smith · incremental -1.13 1992 · Bruce Pickens · incremental -1.50 1992 · Frankie Smith · incremental -3.29 1992 · Deion Sanders · incremental -3.46 1992 · Bob Whitfield · incremental -7.48 1993 · Mitch Lyons · incremental +0.06 1993 · Brian Mitchell · incremental +0.07 1993 · Tim Green · incremental +0.09 1993 · Darnell Walker · incremental +0.14 1993 · Harold Alexander · incremental +0.17 1993 · Roger Harper · incremental +0.21 1993 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.24 1993 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.27 1993 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.52 1993 · Erric Pegram · incremental +0.61 1993 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.78 1993 · Chris Miller · incremental -0.06 1993 · Darion Conner · incremental -0.09 1993 · Ron George · incremental -0.09 1993 · Steve Broussard · incremental -0.19 1993 · Tony Smith · incremental -0.20 1993 · Mike Pritchard · incremental -0.57 1993 · Howard Dinkins · incremental -0.64 1993 · Bruce Pickens · incremental -0.94 1993 · Deion Sanders · incremental -3.34 1993 · Lincoln Kennedy · incremental -4.75 1994 · Ron George · incremental +0.03 1994 · Bert Emanuel · incremental +0.04 1994 · Mitch Lyons · incremental +0.06 1994 · Harold Alexander · incremental +0.10 1994 · Darnell Walker · incremental +0.19 1994 · Roger Harper · incremental +0.19 1994 · Erric Pegram · incremental +0.27 1994 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.27 1994 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.44 1994 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.82 1994 · Jamal Anderson · incremental -0.01 1994 · Tony Smith · incremental -0.02 1994 · Perry Klein · incremental -0.06 1994 · Anthony Phillips · incremental -0.08 1994 · Harrison Houston · incremental -0.57 1994 · Lincoln Kennedy · incremental -0.81 1994 · Mitch Davis · incremental -0.97 1994 · Alai Kalaniuvalu · incremental -1.20 1995 · Ron George · incremental +0.06 1995 · Mitch Lyons · incremental +0.08 1995 · John Burrough · incremental +0.14 1995 · Roell Preston · incremental +0.15 1995 · Darnell Walker · incremental +0.20 1995 · Roger Harper · incremental +0.26 1995 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.28 1995 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.29 1995 · Bert Emanuel · incremental +0.36 1995 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.53 1995 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.82 1995 · Anthony Phillips · incremental -0.14 1995 · Travis Hall · incremental -0.15 1995 · Devin Bush Sr. · incremental -0.46 1995 · Lorenzo Styles · incremental -0.87 1995 · Lincoln Kennedy · incremental -1.11 1995 · Ron Davis · incremental -1.17 1996 · Ron George · incremental +0.02 1996 · Mitch Lyons · incremental +0.12 1996 · John Burrough · incremental +0.12 1996 · Darnell Walker · incremental +0.21 1996 · Roell Preston · incremental +0.23 1996 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.27 1996 · Bert Emanuel · incremental +0.31 1996 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.48 1996 · Moe Gardner · incremental +0.49 1996 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.51 1996 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.85 1996 · Anthony Phillips · incremental -0.16 1996 · Lorenzo Styles · incremental -0.30 1996 · Devin Bush Sr. · incremental -0.30 1997 · John Burrough · incremental +0.10 1997 · Michael Haynes · incremental +0.15 1997 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.27 1997 · Bert Emanuel · incremental +0.37 1997 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.61 1997 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.68 1997 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.84 1997 · Devin Bush Sr. · incremental -0.31 1998 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.29 1998 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.54 1998 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.65 1998 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +3.32 1998 · John Burrough · incremental -0.02 1998 · Devin Bush Sr. · incremental -0.06 1999 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.10 1999 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.27 1999 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.56 1999 · Chuck Smith · incremental +0.58 2000 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.25 2000 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.59 2000 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.86 2001 · Jamal Anderson · incremental +0.17 2001 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.28 2001 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.57 2002 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.19 2002 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.28 2003 · Bob Whitfield · incremental +0.13 2003 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.28 2004 · Travis Hall · incremental +0.22 Casillas -4.9 Bruce -7.0 Norwood -1.9 Broussard -2.0 Sadowski -2.3 Sanders -2.3 Favre -15.0 Smith -3.3 Sanders -3.5 Whitfield -7.5 Sanders -3.3 Kennedy -4.8 Kennedy -0.8 Kennedy -1.1 Anderson +3.3 1986 4 players 1987 9 players 1988 12 players 1989 18 players 1990 20 players 1991 23 players 1992 23 players 1993 21 players 1994 18 players 1995 17 players 1996 14 players 1997 8 players 1998 6 players 1999 4 players 2000 3 players 2001 3 players 2002 2 players 2003 2 players 2004 1 player
How much retained production did Lincoln Kennedy return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Lincoln Kennedy since 2010 (21 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 +1.5 Model value above slot 13. Wirfs Tristan Wirfs · model value +1.6 9. Smith Tyron Smith · model value +1.2 4. Johnson Lane Johnson · model value +0.8 6. Stanley Ronnie Stanley · model value +0.4 11. Lewan Taylor Lewan · model value +0.1 13. Peat Andrus Peat · model value +0.1 6. Matthews Jake Matthews · model value +0.1 5. Scherff Brandon Scherff · model value -0.1 11. Davis Anthony Davis · model value -0.2 11. Fluker D.J. Fluker · model value -0.4 4. Williams Trent Williams · model value -0.5 8. Conklin Jack Conklin · model value -0.5 4. Thomas Andrew Thomas · model value -0.6 10. Jr. Jedrick Wills Jr. · model value -0.6 4. Kalil Matt Kalil · model value -0.6 9. McGlinchey Mike McGlinchey · model value -0.7 6. Okung Russell Okung · model value -0.7 6. Ekwonu Ikem Ekwonu · model value -0.8 9. Flowers Ereck Flowers · model value -1 13. Tunsil Laremy Tunsil · model value -1.3 11. Becton Mekhi Becton · model value -1.4 9. Kennedy Lincoln Kennedy · model value -1.7 -1.7 Lincoln Kennedy
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '03 0 35 71 106 141 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (11 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.