All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Larry Lee across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 96
Games started 25
Weighted career AV 18
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 8
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 62
Team starts 16
On-team AV 13
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Bad -0.49 contribution 40th of 65 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Larry Lee became a 8-season, 96-game NFL player after going #129. The retained-value model still ranks him 40th of 65 for Russ Thomas because DET only got 62 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.49 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Russ Thomas's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
62
on drafting team · 96 full-career
Games started
16
on drafting team · 25 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
13
modeled; full weighted AV 18
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Russ Thomas's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Russ Thomas pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Larry Lee totals -0.49 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 29. Spielman #29 · Chris Spielman · aggregate +5.30 Spielman +5.3 1. Sims #1 · Billy Sims · aggregate +2.60 Sims +2.6 67. Cofer #67 · Mike Cofer · aggregate +2.45 Cofer +2.5 63. Ball #63 · Jerry Ball · aggregate +2.36 Ball +2.4 121. Mott #121 · Steve Mott · aggregate +2.22 Mott +2.2 96. McNorton #96 · Bruce McNorton · aggregate +2.15 McNorton +2.1 140. Dieterich #140 · Chris Dieterich · aggregate +1.76 111. Andolsek #111 · Eric Andolsek · aggregate +1.72 115. Johnson #115 · Demetrious Johnson · aggregate +1.52 127. Graham #127 · William Graham · aggregate +1.47 42. Watkins #42 · Bobby Watkins · aggregate +1.28 85. Hipple #85 · Eric Hipple · aggregate +1.19 181. Black #181 · Mike Black · aggregate +1.10 72. Greco #72 · Don Greco · aggregate +0.77 3. Blades #3 · Bennie Blades · aggregate +0.58 92. Mitchell #92 · Devon Mitchell · aggregate +0.52 85. White #85 · William White · aggregate +0.37 34. Glover #34 · Kevin Glover · aggregate +0.37 29. James #29 · Garry James · aggregate +0.33 46. Green #46 · Curtis Green · aggregate +0.33 62. Williams #62 · Eric Williams · aggregate +0.31 40. Strenger #40 · Rich Strenger · aggregate +0.26 160. Witkowski #160 · John Witkowski · aggregate +0.10 47. Mandley #47 · Pete Mandley · aggregate +0.02 94. Curley #94 · August Curley · aggregate +0.02 75. Baack #75 · Steve Baack · aggregate +0.02 154. Machurek #154 · Mike Machurek · aggregate -0.02 142. Painter #142 · Carl Painter · aggregate -0.02 148. Lockett #148 · Danny Lockett · aggregate -0.09 169. James #169 · Jeff James · aggregate -0.28 174. Staten #174 · Tony Staten · aggregate -0.30 120. Ginn #120 · Tommie Ginn · aggregate -0.37 187. Simmons #187 · Victor Simmons · aggregate -0.39 20. Lewis #20 · David Lewis · aggregate -0.40 99. Porter #99 · Tracy Porter · aggregate -0.44 175. Bates #175 · Phil Bates · aggregate -0.44 16. Nichols #16 · Mark Nichols · aggregate -0.45 106. D'Addio #106 · Dave D'Addio · aggregate -0.46 154. Brown #154 · Todd Brown · aggregate -0.48 129. Lee #129 · Larry Lee · aggregate -0.49 Lee -0.5 155. Johnson #155 · Sam Johnson · aggregate -0.50 178. Carter #178 · Jimmie Carter · aggregate -0.52 119. Smith #119 · Oscar Smith · aggregate -0.52 187. Atkins #187 · Renwick Atkins · aggregate -0.53 118. McIntosh #118 · Joe McIntosh · aggregate -0.58 146. Short #146 · Stan Short · aggregate -0.64 92. Rivers #92 · Garland Rivers · aggregate -0.64 182. Spivey #182 · Lee Spivey · aggregate -0.65 111. Streeter #111 · Mark Streeter · aggregate -0.75 12. Long #12 · Chuck Long · aggregate -0.87 74. Anderson #74 · Ernest Anderson · aggregate -0.91 58. Roundtree #58 · Ray Roundtree · aggregate -0.91 69. Doig #69 · Steve Doig · aggregate -0.91 90. Hancock #90 · Kevin Hancock · aggregate -0.91 62. Johnson #62 · James Johnson · aggregate -0.97 13. Jones #13 · James Jones · aggregate -1.02 62. Friede #62 · Mike Friede · aggregate -1.12 57. Turnure #57 · Tom Turnure · aggregate -1.20 69. Milinichik #69 · Joe Milinichik · aggregate -1.74 15. Williams #15 · Jimmy Williams · aggregate -2.30 Williams -2.3 7. Rogers #7 · Reggie Rogers · aggregate -2.36 Rogers -2.4 175. Saleaumua #175 · Dan Saleaumua · aggregate -2.82 Saleaumua -2.8 32. Carter #32 · Pat Carter · aggregate -3.08 Carter -3.1 166. Murray #166 · Eddie Murray · aggregate -3.42 Murray -3.4 6. Brown #6 · Lomas Brown · aggregate -5.34 Brown -5.3 Incremental contribution by season -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 1980 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.23 1980 · Billy Sims · incremental +1.16 1980 · Eric Hipple · incremental -0.18 1980 · Tommie Ginn · incremental -0.50 1980 · Mark Streeter · incremental -1.27 1980 · Tom Turnure · incremental -1.32 1980 · Mike Friede · incremental -1.77 1980 · Eddie Murray · incremental -3.18 1981 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.28 1981 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.39 1981 · Billy Sims · incremental +1.36 1981 · Tommie Ginn · incremental -0.05 1981 · Don Greco · incremental -0.07 1981 · Larry Lee · incremental -0.15 1981 · Tom Turnure · incremental -0.16 1981 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.22 1981 · Curtis Green · incremental -0.34 1981 · Mark Nichols · incremental -0.50 1981 · Tracy Porter · incremental -0.53 1981 · Sam Johnson · incremental -0.88 1981 · Lee Spivey · incremental -1.08 1982 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.01 1982 · Larry Lee · incremental +0.02 1982 · Mike Machurek · incremental +0.02 1982 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.07 1982 · William Graham · incremental +0.12 1982 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.17 1982 · Don Greco · incremental +0.19 1982 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.27 1982 · Billy Sims · incremental +1.27 1982 · Mark Nichols · incremental -0.02 1982 · Tom Turnure · incremental -0.07 1982 · Tracy Porter · incremental -0.19 1982 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.21 1982 · Bruce McNorton · incremental -0.25 1982 · Steve Doig · incremental -0.29 1982 · Victor Simmons · incremental -0.66 1982 · Phil Bates · incremental -0.74 1982 · Jimmy Williams · incremental -4.32 1983 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.00 1983 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.02 1983 · Rich Strenger · incremental +0.04 1983 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.14 1983 · Demetrious Johnson · incremental +0.28 1983 · Billy Sims · incremental +0.31 1983 · Don Greco · incremental +0.34 1983 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.44 1983 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.44 1983 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.51 1983 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.54 1983 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.61 1983 · Mike Black · incremental +0.62 1983 · William Graham · incremental +0.65 1983 · August Curley · incremental -0.01 1983 · Tom Turnure · incremental -0.05 1983 · Mark Nichols · incremental -0.05 1983 · Steve Doig · incremental -0.17 1983 · Larry Lee · incremental -0.21 1983 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.22 1983 · Todd Brown · incremental -0.81 1983 · James Jones · incremental -2.41 1984 · Rich Strenger · incremental +0.02 1984 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.02 1984 · August Curley · incremental +0.04 1984 · James Jones · incremental +0.08 1984 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.10 1984 · Steve Baack · incremental +0.12 1984 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.14 1984 · John Witkowski · incremental +0.15 1984 · Billy Sims · incremental +0.17 1984 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.29 1984 · Demetrious Johnson · incremental +0.36 1984 · Mike Black · incremental +0.41 1984 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.45 1984 · Don Greco · incremental +0.45 1984 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.48 1984 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.55 1984 · William Graham · incremental +0.57 1984 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.61 1984 · Mark Nichols · incremental -0.05 1984 · Mike Machurek · incremental -0.08 1984 · Pete Mandley · incremental -0.11 1984 · Larry Lee · incremental -0.21 1984 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.22 1984 · David Lewis · incremental -0.25 1984 · Eric Williams · incremental -0.43 1984 · Dave D'Addio · incremental -0.68 1984 · Jimmie Carter · incremental -0.87 1984 · Renwick Atkins · incremental -0.88 1984 · Steve Doig · incremental -0.90 1984 · Ernest Anderson · incremental -1.48 1985 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.01 1985 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.02 1985 · August Curley · incremental +0.03 1985 · James Jones · incremental +0.07 1985 · Pete Mandley · incremental +0.10 1985 · Rich Strenger · incremental +0.12 1985 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.14 1985 · Eric Williams · incremental +0.16 1985 · Don Greco · incremental +0.18 1985 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.21 1985 · Mike Black · incremental +0.41 1985 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.41 1985 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.44 1985 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.49 1985 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.59 1985 · William Graham · incremental +0.71 1985 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.78 1985 · Demetrious Johnson · incremental +0.85 1985 · Mark Nichols · incremental -0.08 1985 · Tom Turnure · incremental -0.09 1985 · Larry Lee · incremental -0.14 1985 · Steve Baack · incremental -0.19 1985 · David Lewis · incremental -0.19 1985 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.22 1985 · James Johnson · incremental -0.56 1985 · Tony Staten · incremental -0.57 1985 · Joe McIntosh · incremental -0.97 1985 · Stan Short · incremental -1.08 1985 · Kevin Hancock · incremental -1.49 1985 · Kevin Glover · incremental -1.90 1986 · August Curley · incremental +0.02 1986 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.02 1986 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.05 1986 · James Jones · incremental +0.08 1986 · Pete Mandley · incremental +0.11 1986 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.13 1986 · Garry James · incremental +0.13 1986 · Steve Baack · incremental +0.16 1986 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.16 1986 · Rich Strenger · incremental +0.17 1986 · Eric Williams · incremental +0.21 1986 · Mike Black · incremental +0.22 1986 · William Graham · incremental +0.23 1986 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.33 1986 · Chris Dieterich · incremental +0.34 1986 · Devon Mitchell · incremental +0.45 1986 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.52 1986 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.61 1986 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.65 1986 · Demetrious Johnson · incremental +0.85 1986 · Jimmy Williams · incremental -0.00 1986 · Tom Turnure · incremental -0.06 1986 · David Lewis · incremental -0.07 1986 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.18 1986 · Chuck Long · incremental -0.24 1986 · Joe Milinichik · incremental -0.37 1986 · Oscar Smith · incremental -0.86 1986 · James Johnson · incremental -0.98 1987 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.01 1987 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.01 1987 · Jerry Ball · incremental +0.01 1987 · Mike Black · incremental +0.02 1987 · Rich Strenger · incremental +0.04 1987 · Mark Nichols · incremental +0.04 1987 · William Graham · incremental +0.04 1987 · James Jones · incremental +0.06 1987 · Steve Baack · incremental +0.08 1987 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.12 1987 · Garry James · incremental +0.12 1987 · Eric Williams · incremental +0.14 1987 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.14 1987 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.21 1987 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.34 1987 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.44 1987 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.52 1987 · Pete Mandley · incremental -0.01 1987 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.06 1987 · Danny Lockett · incremental -0.15 1987 · Joe Milinichik · incremental -0.27 1987 · Chuck Long · incremental -0.68 1987 · Reggie Rogers · incremental -0.72 1987 · Garland Rivers · incremental -1.10 1987 · Dan Saleaumua · incremental -2.78 1988 · Pete Mandley · incremental +0.01 1988 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.02 1988 · Jerry Ball · incremental +0.03 1988 · Danny Lockett · incremental +0.04 1988 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.05 1988 · James Jones · incremental +0.07 1988 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.11 1988 · Bobby Watkins · incremental +0.16 1988 · Eric Andolsek · incremental +0.20 1988 · Eric Williams · incremental +0.21 1988 · Devon Mitchell · incremental +0.26 1988 · Garry James · incremental +0.26 1988 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.32 1988 · Chris Spielman · incremental +0.52 1988 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.59 1988 · Steve Mott · incremental +0.69 1988 · Mike Cofer · incremental +1.23 1988 · Jimmy Williams · incremental -0.00 1988 · Carl Painter · incremental -0.00 1988 · John Witkowski · incremental -0.01 1988 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.22 1988 · Chuck Long · incremental -0.35 1988 · William White · incremental -0.50 1988 · Jeff James · incremental -0.51 1988 · Bennie Blades · incremental -0.76 1988 · Ray Roundtree · incremental -1.45 1988 · Dan Saleaumua · incremental -1.51 1988 · Joe Milinichik · incremental -1.60 1988 · Reggie Rogers · incremental -2.80 1988 · Pat Carter · incremental -4.92 1989 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.00 1989 · Eric Hipple · incremental +0.02 1989 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.02 1989 · Carl Painter · incremental +0.02 1989 · Eddie Murray · incremental +0.04 1989 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.11 1989 · Curtis Green · incremental +0.16 1989 · Eric Williams · incremental +0.21 1989 · William White · incremental +0.23 1989 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.29 1989 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.30 1989 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.33 1989 · Eric Andolsek · incremental +0.76 1989 · Jerry Ball · incremental +0.90 1989 · Chris Spielman · incremental +1.47 1989 · Chuck Long · incremental -0.01 1989 · Joe Milinichik · incremental -0.38 1990 · Jimmy Williams · incremental +0.01 1990 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.22 1990 · William White · incremental +0.24 1990 · Bruce McNorton · incremental +0.33 1990 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.36 1990 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.49 1990 · Eric Andolsek · incremental +0.85 1990 · Jerry Ball · incremental +0.89 1990 · Chris Spielman · incremental +1.31 1990 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.09 1990 · Lomas Brown · incremental -0.78 1991 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.06 1991 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.23 1991 · William White · incremental +0.24 1991 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.35 1991 · Eric Andolsek · incremental +0.82 1991 · Jerry Ball · incremental +2.68 1991 · Chris Spielman · incremental +3.28 1991 · Eddie Murray · incremental -0.14 1991 · Lomas Brown · incremental -0.78 1992 · Jerry Ball · incremental +0.02 1992 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.15 1992 · Mike Cofer · incremental +0.24 1992 · William White · incremental +0.24 1992 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.29 1992 · Chris Spielman · incremental +0.61 1992 · Lomas Brown · incremental -0.78 1993 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.07 1993 · William White · incremental +0.24 1993 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.35 1993 · Chris Spielman · incremental +0.54 1993 · Lomas Brown · incremental -0.78 1994 · Lomas Brown · incremental +0.01 1994 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.29 1994 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.35 1994 · Chris Spielman · incremental +0.61 1995 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.29 1995 · Chris Spielman · incremental +0.56 1995 · Kevin Glover · incremental -1.44 1995 · Lomas Brown · incremental -7.49 1996 · Bennie Blades · incremental +0.27 1996 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.37 1997 · Kevin Glover · incremental +0.37 Friede -1.8 Murray -3.2 Lee -0.2 Lee +0.0 Williams -4.3 Lee -0.2 Jones -2.4 Lee -0.2 Lee -0.1 Glover -1.9 Saleaumua -2.8 Milinichik -1.6 Rogers -2.8 Carter -4.9 Ball +2.7 Spielman +3.3 Brown -7.5 1980 8 players 1981 13 players 1982 18 players 1983 22 players 1984 30 players 1985 30 players 1986 28 players 1987 25 players 1988 30 players 1989 17 players 1990 11 players 1991 9 players 1992 7 players 1993 5 players 1994 4 players 1995 4 players 1996 2 players 1997 1 player
How much retained production did Larry Lee return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Larry Lee since 2010 (6 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-0.5 0 Model value above slot 131. Martin Wes Martin · model value -0.2 124. Haynes Phil Haynes · model value -0.2 129. Lee Larry Lee · model value -0.3 -0.3 130. Poole Terry Poole · model value -0.3 129. McClendon Jacques McClendon · model value -0.4 128. Feliciano Jon Feliciano · model value -0.5 134. Glowinski Mark Glowinski · model value -0.7 Larry Lee
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'82 '84 '86 '88 0 6 13 19 25 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.