Harvey Armstrong · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Harvey Armstrong across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played111

Games started29

Weighted career AV20

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons9

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

1982 · Round 7 · #190

PHI draft credit

GM Jim Murray

Team games40

Team starts0

On-team AV5

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-1.17 contribution29th of 33 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Harvey Armstrong became a 9-season, 111-game NFL player after going #190. The retained-value model still ranks him 29th of 33 for Jim Murray because PHI only got 40 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.17. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jim Murray's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 111 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 29 full-career

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 20

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Jim Murray's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Jim Murray pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Harvey Armstrong totals -1.17. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationHarvey ArmstrongGM total -6.1Harvey Armstrong by season -1.8

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
1982	PHI	8	0	—	—	1	—
1983	PHI	16	0	—	—	2	—
1984	PHI	16	0	—	—	2	—
1985	—	0	0	—	—	0	—
1986	IND	16	1	—	—	2	—
1987	IND	11	1	—	—	2	—
1988	IND	16	1	—	—	2	—
1989	IND	16	16	—	—	8	—
1990	IND	12	10	—	—	4	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.