Terrible-6.86 contribution36th of 36 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Mike Nugent became a 16-season, 172-game NFL player after going #47. The retained-value model still ranks him 36th of 36 for Terry Bradway because NYJ only got 49 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -6.86. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Terry Bradway's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
49
on drafting team · 172 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
9
modeled; full weighted AV 22
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Terry Bradway's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Terry Bradway pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Mike Nugent totals -6.86. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMike NugentGM total -14.3Mike Nugent by season -11.5
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (16 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2005
NYJ
16
0
—
—
3
—
2006
NYJ
16
0
—
—
4
—
2007
NYJ
16
0
—
—
2
—
2008
NYJ
1
0
—
—
0
—
2009
ARI, TB
6
0
—
—
1
—
2010
CIN
9
0
—
—
2
—
2011
CIN
16
0
—
—
3
—
2012
CIN
12
0
—
—
2
—
2013
CIN
16
1
164
—
3
18.3
2014
CIN
16
2
153
0.7
2
13.1
2015
CIN
16
1
167
1.1
3
18.0
2016
CIN
13
1
121
0.1
0
0.0
2017
CHI, DAL
8
1
66
-2.4
2
30.3
2018
LV
3
0
26
-1.2
1
38.5
2019
NE
4
0
24
-1.3
0
0.0
2020
ARI
4
0
35
-0.9
1
28.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
