Excellent+1.56 contribution2nd of 15 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Jarvis Landry was Dennis Hickey's 2nd-best of 15 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.56. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Dennis Hickey's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
64
on drafting team · 132 full-career
Games started
57
on drafting team · 116 full-career
Snap-z
6.3
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
33
modeled; full weighted AV 56
AV / 1k snaps
8.8
3,738 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
2
5 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Dennis Hickey's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Dennis Hickey pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jarvis Landry totals +1.56. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJarvis LandryGM total -8.5Jarvis Landry by season +3.5
How much retained production did Jarvis Landry return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Jarvis Landry since 2010 (21 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Jarvis LandrySlot-similar peers (21)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2014
MIA
16
14
848
1.2
7
8.3
2015
MIA
16
15
978
1.7
9
9.2
2016
MIA
16
16
943
1.5
10
10.6
✓
2017
MIA
16
16
969
1.9
7
7.2
✓
2018
CLE
16
16
963
1.9
8
8.3
2019
CLE
16
16
999
2.0
10
10.0
2020
CLE
15
15
699
1.0
9
12.9
2021
CLE
12
11
533
0.5
5
9.4
2022
NO
9
7
305
-0.2
2
6.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
