All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Ray Buchanan across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 184
Games started 165
Weighted career AV 63
Pro Bowls 1
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 12
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 61
Team starts 50
On-team AV 26
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -1.47 contribution 56th of 67 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Ray Buchanan became a 12-season, 184-game NFL player after going #65. The retained-value model still ranks him 56th of 67 for Jim Irsay/staff because IND only got 61 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.47 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jim Irsay/staff's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
61
on drafting team · 184 full-career
Games started
50
on drafting team · 165 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
26
modeled; full weighted AV 63
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Jim Irsay/staff's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Jim Irsay/staff pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Ray Buchanan totals -1.47 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 85. Dixon #85 · Randy Dixon · aggregate +2.40 Dixon +2.4 105. McCoy #105 · Tony McCoy · aggregate +1.89 130. Call #130 · Kevin Call · aggregate +1.47 129. Baylor #129 · John Baylor · aggregate +1.44 86. Brooks #86 · Bill Brooks · aggregate +1.34 104. Ball #104 · Michael Ball · aggregate +1.16 125. Cash #125 · Kerry Cash · aggregate +1.05 4. Hand #4 · Jon Hand · aggregate +0.86 142. Robinson #142 · Freddie Robinson · aggregate +0.60 103. Wonsley #103 · George Wonsley · aggregate +0.51 49. Potts #49 · Roosevelt Potts · aggregate +0.51 155. McDonald #155 · Quintus McDonald · aggregate +0.44 92. Gray #92 · Derwin Gray · aggregate +0.24 148. Walker #148 · Tony Walker · aggregate +0.23 103. Grant #103 · Alan Grant · aggregate +0.21 182. Hunter #182 · Ivy Joe Hunter · aggregate +0.19 172. White #172 · Chris White · aggregate +0.16 107. McDonald #107 · Devon McDonald · aggregate +0.15 170. Bellini #170 · Mark Bellini · aggregate +0.10 66. Scott #66 · Chris Scott · aggregate +0.08 152. Agee #152 · Mel Agee · aggregate +0.04 157. Etheredge #157 · Carlos Etheredge · aggregate +0.03 117. Kellar #117 · Scott Kellar · aggregate +0.03 85. Culver #85 · Rodney Culver · aggregate -0.04 169. Steele #169 · Derek Steele · aggregate -0.16 19. Solt #19 · Ron Solt · aggregate -0.16 184. Lewis #184 · Lance Lewis · aggregate -0.16 181. Bradley #181 · James Bradley · aggregate -0.19 190. Sims #190 · Tommy Sims · aggregate -0.20 99. Tomberlin #99 · Pat Tomberlin · aggregate -0.24 173. Harbour #173 · James Harbour · aggregate -0.24 171. O'Malley #171 · Steve O'Malley · aggregate -0.26 185. Washington #185 · Charles Washington · aggregate -0.28 16. Dawkins #16 · Sean Dawkins · aggregate -0.28 141. Habersham #141 · Shoun Habersham · aggregate -0.32 72. Benson #72 · Mitchell Benson · aggregate -0.34 114. Banks #114 · Roy Banks · aggregate -0.36 179. Singletary #179 · James Singletary · aggregate -0.37 96. Poel #96 · Mark Vander Poel · aggregate -0.39 61. Young #61 · Anthony Young · aggregate -0.40 47. Trudeau #47 · Jack Trudeau · aggregate -0.42 113. Toy #113 · Maury Toy · aggregate -0.47 147. Beverly #147 · Dwight Beverly · aggregate -0.49 83. Simmons #83 · Stacey Simmons · aggregate -0.50 69. McCloughan #69 · Dave McCloughan · aggregate -0.52 120. Tate #120 · Golden Tate · aggregate -0.60 117. Caron #117 · Roger Caron · aggregate -0.61 93. Curry #93 · Craig Curry · aggregate -0.63 94. Schultz #94 · William Schultz · aggregate -0.67 5. Bickett #5 · Duane Bickett · aggregate -0.71 124. Walker #124 · Gary Walker · aggregate -0.71 2. Coryatt #2 · Quentin Coryatt · aggregate -0.91 40. Curry #40 · Shane Curry · aggregate -0.92 58. Gambol #58 · Chris Gambol · aggregate -1.17 32. Anderson #32 · Don Anderson · aggregate -1.31 65. Buchanan #65 · Ray Buchanan · aggregate -1.47 Buchanan -1.5 8. Coleman #8 · Leonard Coleman · aggregate -1.73 106. Cunningham #106 · Rick Cunningham · aggregate -2.31 Cunningham -2.3 1. Emtman #1 · Steve Emtman · aggregate -2.39 Emtman -2.4 36. Johnson #36 · Anthony Johnson · aggregate -2.73 Johnson -2.7 88. Broughton #88 · Willie Broughton · aggregate -3.15 Broughton -3.1 35. Winter #35 · Blaise Winter · aggregate -3.53 Winter -3.5 1. George #1 · Jeff George · aggregate -4.16 George -4.2 29. Ambrose #29 · Ashley Ambrose · aggregate -4.53 Ambrose -4.5 22. Rison #22 · Andre Rison · aggregate -4.80 Rison -4.8 76. Chandler #76 · Chris Chandler · aggregate -5.67 Chandler -5.7 2. Bennett #2 · Cornelius Bennett · aggregate -10.83 Bennett -10.8 Incremental contribution by season -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 1984 · George Wonsley · incremental +0.09 1984 · Chris Scott · incremental -0.00 1984 · Kevin Call · incremental -0.16 1984 · Leonard Coleman · incremental -0.29 1984 · Craig Curry · incremental -0.33 1984 · Ron Solt · incremental -0.35 1984 · Dwight Beverly · incremental -0.80 1984 · Golden Tate · incremental -1.00 1984 · Blaise Winter · incremental -5.59 1985 · Chris Scott · incremental +0.10 1985 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.17 1985 · George Wonsley · incremental +0.27 1985 · Ron Solt · incremental -0.04 1985 · James Harbour · incremental -0.17 1985 · Leonard Coleman · incremental -0.33 1985 · Anthony Young · incremental -0.68 1985 · Roger Caron · incremental -0.87 1985 · Willie Broughton · incremental -1.81 1985 · Don Anderson · incremental -2.07 1985 · Duane Bickett · incremental -2.14 1986 · Chris White · incremental +0.06 1986 · George Wonsley · incremental +0.23 1986 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.26 1986 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.45 1986 · Scott Kellar · incremental -0.01 1986 · Ron Solt · incremental -0.02 1986 · Roger Caron · incremental -0.10 1986 · James Harbour · incremental -0.21 1986 · Bill Brooks · incremental -0.32 1986 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.38 1986 · Tommy Sims · incremental -0.40 1986 · Steve O'Malley · incremental -0.50 1986 · Jon Hand · incremental -0.71 1986 · Gary Walker · incremental -1.19 1986 · Leonard Coleman · incremental -1.85 1986 · Willie Broughton · incremental -3.07 1987 · Scott Kellar · incremental +0.01 1987 · Chris Scott · incremental +0.03 1987 · Mark Bellini · incremental +0.05 1987 · George Wonsley · incremental +0.15 1987 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.25 1987 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.34 1987 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.34 1987 · Ron Solt · incremental +0.38 1987 · Freddie Robinson · incremental +0.42 1987 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.06 1987 · Leonard Coleman · incremental -0.07 1987 · Randy Dixon · incremental -0.26 1987 · Roy Banks · incremental -0.39 1987 · Craig Curry · incremental -0.75 1987 · Chris Gambol · incremental -1.14 1987 · Duane Bickett · incremental -1.55 1987 · Cornelius Bennett · incremental -11.23 1988 · Mark Bellini · incremental +0.13 1988 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.17 1988 · George Wonsley · incremental +0.20 1988 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.21 1988 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.27 1988 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.32 1988 · Freddie Robinson · incremental +0.39 1988 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.47 1988 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.64 1988 · Ron Solt · incremental -0.00 1988 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.01 1988 · John Baylor · incremental -0.04 1988 · Roy Banks · incremental -0.16 1988 · Chris Gambol · incremental -0.72 1988 · Chris Chandler · incremental -7.42 1989 · Ivy Joe Hunter · incremental +0.18 1989 · Quintus McDonald · incremental +0.23 1989 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.28 1989 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.34 1989 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.42 1989 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.43 1989 · John Baylor · incremental +0.52 1989 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.60 1989 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.64 1989 · Pat Tomberlin · incremental -0.03 1989 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.07 1989 · Mitchell Benson · incremental -0.44 1989 · Charles Washington · incremental -0.48 1989 · Chris Chandler · incremental -1.36 1989 · Andre Rison · incremental -7.79 1990 · Quintus McDonald · incremental +0.14 1990 · Tony Walker · incremental +0.16 1990 · John Baylor · incremental +0.18 1990 · Alan Grant · incremental +0.18 1990 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.22 1990 · Ivy Joe Hunter · incremental +0.24 1990 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.25 1990 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.25 1990 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.26 1990 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.43 1990 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.53 1990 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.04 1990 · Mitchell Benson · incremental -0.09 1990 · William Schultz · incremental -0.23 1990 · Pat Tomberlin · incremental -0.38 1990 · James Singletary · incremental -0.65 1990 · Stacey Simmons · incremental -0.75 1990 · Anthony Johnson · incremental -1.73 1990 · Jeff George · incremental -3.54 1990 · Rick Cunningham · incremental -3.62 1991 · Kerry Cash · incremental +0.04 1991 · Mel Agee · incremental +0.05 1991 · Alan Grant · incremental +0.14 1991 · Tony Walker · incremental +0.21 1991 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.25 1991 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.33 1991 · John Baylor · incremental +0.36 1991 · Quintus McDonald · incremental +0.38 1991 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.38 1991 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.39 1991 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.43 1991 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.52 1991 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.00 1991 · William Schultz · incremental -0.20 1991 · James Bradley · incremental -0.36 1991 · Mark Vander Poel · incremental -0.50 1991 · Anthony Johnson · incremental -0.51 1991 · Dave McCloughan · incremental -0.84 1991 · Jeff George · incremental -1.06 1991 · Shane Curry · incremental -1.46 1992 · Mel Agee · incremental +0.00 1992 · Tony Walker · incremental +0.05 1992 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.17 1992 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.25 1992 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.25 1992 · Bill Brooks · incremental +0.26 1992 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.26 1992 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.44 1992 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.53 1992 · Kerry Cash · incremental +0.65 1992 · John Baylor · incremental +0.74 1992 · Ron Solt · incremental -0.01 1992 · Jack Trudeau · incremental -0.03 1992 · Rodney Culver · incremental -0.07 1992 · William Schultz · incremental -0.08 1992 · Mark Vander Poel · incremental -0.10 1992 · Derek Steele · incremental -0.34 1992 · Shoun Habersham · incremental -0.58 1992 · Jeff George · incremental -0.74 1992 · Maury Toy · incremental -0.79 1992 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental -1.06 1992 · Anthony Johnson · incremental -1.27 1992 · Steve Emtman · incremental -2.14 1992 · Ashley Ambrose · incremental -3.01 1993 · Jack Trudeau · incremental +0.00 1993 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental +0.00 1993 · Rodney Culver · incremental +0.04 1993 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.07 1993 · Michael Ball · incremental +0.08 1993 · Carlos Etheredge · incremental +0.08 1993 · Derwin Gray · incremental +0.09 1993 · Kevin Call · incremental +0.13 1993 · Devon McDonald · incremental +0.15 1993 · Roosevelt Potts · incremental +0.23 1993 · Duane Bickett · incremental +0.23 1993 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.30 1993 · Kerry Cash · incremental +0.53 1993 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.53 1993 · John Baylor · incremental +0.57 1993 · Lance Lewis · incremental -0.32 1993 · William Schultz · incremental -0.40 1993 · Sean Dawkins · incremental -0.72 1993 · Anthony Johnson · incremental -0.81 1993 · Steve Emtman · incremental -0.90 1993 · Jeff George · incremental -0.99 1993 · Ray Buchanan · incremental -1.17 1993 · Ashley Ambrose · incremental -1.70 1994 · Devon McDonald · incremental +0.01 1994 · Sean Dawkins · incremental +0.06 1994 · Jon Hand · incremental +0.08 1994 · Roosevelt Potts · incremental +0.35 1994 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.52 1994 · Kerry Cash · incremental +0.57 1994 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.58 1994 · Derwin Gray · incremental -0.01 1994 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental -0.03 1994 · Carlos Etheredge · incremental -0.22 1994 · Steve Emtman · incremental -0.33 1994 · Ray Buchanan · incremental -0.46 1994 · Ashley Ambrose · incremental -1.67 1995 · Sean Dawkins · incremental +0.05 1995 · Devon McDonald · incremental +0.16 1995 · Derwin Gray · incremental +0.20 1995 · Roosevelt Potts · incremental +0.34 1995 · Randy Dixon · incremental +0.39 1995 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.61 1995 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental -0.07 1995 · Ray Buchanan · incremental -0.44 1995 · Ashley Ambrose · incremental -0.82 1996 · Derwin Gray · incremental +0.02 1996 · Sean Dawkins · incremental +0.06 1996 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.56 1996 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental -0.01 1996 · Ray Buchanan · incremental -0.34 1997 · Roosevelt Potts · incremental +0.01 1997 · Sean Dawkins · incremental +0.05 1997 · Derwin Gray · incremental +0.14 1997 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.44 1997 · Quentin Coryatt · incremental -0.00 1998 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.47 1999 · Tony McCoy · incremental +0.14 1999 · Cornelius Bennett · incremental -3.89 2000 · Cornelius Bennett · incremental -3.62 Winter -5.6 Bickett -2.1 Broughton -3.1 Bennett -11.2 Chandler -7.4 Rison -7.8 George -3.5 Cunningham -3.6 Emtman -2.1 Ambrose -3.0 Buchanan -1.2 Buchanan -0.5 Buchanan -0.4 Buchanan -0.3 Bennett -3.9 Bennett -3.6 1984 9 players 1985 11 players 1986 16 players 1987 17 players 1988 15 players 1989 15 players 1990 20 players 1991 20 players 1992 24 players 1993 23 players 1994 13 players 1995 9 players 1996 5 players 1997 5 players 1998 1 player 1999 2 players 2000 1 player
How much retained production did Ray Buchanan return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Ray Buchanan since 2010 (19 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1 -0.5 0 Model value above slot 65. Cisco Andre Cisco · model value +0.3 65. Johnson Trumaine Johnson · model value +0.2 66. Spievey Amari Spievey · model value +0.2 69. Mathieu Tyrann Mathieu · model value +0.1 64. Green Renardo Green · model value +0.1 60. Turner DJ Turner · model value 0 64. Gratz Dwayne Gratz · model value 0 61. Rakestraw Ennis Rakestraw · model value -0.1 70. Phillips Andru Phillips · model value -0.1 65. Murphy Jerome Murphy · model value -0.2 67. Lewis Myron Lewis · model value -0.3 60. Harris Brandon Harris · model value -0.3 68. McFadden Leon McFadden · model value -0.3 60. Alford Robert Alford · model value -0.4 66. Brown Sydney Brown · model value -0.4 65. Buchanan Ray Buchanan · model value -0.5 -0.5 68. Southward Dezmen Southward · model value -0.6 66. Robinson Josh Robinson · model value -0.8 70. Wreh-Wilson Blidi Wreh-Wilson · model value -1 62. Hayward Casey Hayward · model value -1.3 Ray Buchanan
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 0 41 83 124 165 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.