Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Good pick
Steve Smith Sr. was Dom Anile's 7th-best of 28 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.59. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Dom Anile's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
182
on drafting team · 219 full-career
Games started
161
on drafting team · 198 full-career
Snap-z
1.0
1 modeled season
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
120
modeled; full weighted AV 102
AV / 1k snaps
10.3
774 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
5 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
2 full-career · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Dom Anile's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Dom Anile pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Steve Smith Sr. totals +0.59. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationSteve Smith Sr.GM total +5.2Steve Smith Sr. by season +1.7
How much retained production did Steve Smith Sr. return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Steve Smith Sr. since 2010 (26 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Steve Smith Sr.Slot-similar peers (26)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (16 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2001
CAR
15
1
—
—
5
—
2002
CAR
15
13
—
—
8
—
2003
CAR
16
11
—
—
11
—
2004
CAR
1
1
—
—
1
—
2005
CAR
16
16
—
—
18
—
2006
CAR
14
14
—
—
9
—
2007
CAR
15
15
—
—
9
—
2008
CAR
14
14
—
—
15
—
2009
CAR
15
15
—
—
9
—
2010
CAR
14
14
—
—
3
—
2011
CAR
16
16
—
—
14
—
2012
CAR
16
16
—
—
10
—
2013
CAR
15
14
774
1.0
8
10.3
2014
BAL
16
16
824
1.2
10
12.1
2015
BAL
7
6
353
-0.3
4
11.3
2016
BAL
14
13
722
0.8
5
6.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
