All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow L.J. Shelton across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 146
Games started 127
Weighted career AV 43
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 10
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 82
Team starts 77
On-team AV 30
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Bad -0.73 contribution 54th of 64 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
L.J. Shelton became a 10-season, 146-game NFL player after going #21. The retained-value model still ranks him 54th of 64 for Bob Ferguson because ARI only got 82 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.73 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bob Ferguson's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
82
on drafting team · 146 full-career
Games started
77
on drafting team · 127 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
30
modeled; full weighted AV 43
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Bob Ferguson's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Bob Ferguson pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. L.J. Shelton totals -0.73 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 64. Wilson #64 · Adrian Wilson · aggregate +7.89 Wilson +7.9 226. Tillman #226 · Pat Tillman · aggregate +1.96 42. Plummer #42 · Jake Plummer · aggregate +1.50 8. Boston #8 · David Boston · aggregate +1.41 125. Hardy #125 · Terry Hardy · aggregate +1.35 41. Thompson #41 · Raynoch Thompson · aggregate +1.20 212. Smith #212 · Mark Smith · aggregate +1.07 137. Dexter #137 · James Dexter · aggregate +1.01 106. Dishman #106 · Chris Dishman · aggregate +0.99 190. Rhinehart #190 · Coby Rhinehart · aggregate +0.97 116. Makovicka #116 · Joel Makovicka · aggregate +0.90 158. Walz #158 · Zack Walz · aggregate +0.74 112. Graham #112 · Aaron Graham · aggregate +0.71 64. McWilliams #64 · Johnny McWilliams · aggregate +0.67 206. McKinley #206 · Dennis McKinley · aggregate +0.64 98. Gramatica #98 · Bill Gramatica · aggregate +0.64 188. McCombs #188 · Tony McCombs · aggregate +0.48 239. Greisen #239 · Chris Greisen · aggregate +0.48 176. Issa #176 · Jabari Issa · aggregate +0.42 83. Burke #83 · Tom Burke · aggregate +0.39 136. Tosi #136 · Mao Tosi · aggregate +0.37 123. Bell #123 · Marcus Bell · aggregate +0.37 212. Hayes #212 · Jarius Hayes · aggregate +0.35 223. Banks #223 · Mike Banks · aggregate +0.32 215. Sanyika #215 · Sekou Sanyika · aggregate +0.31 98. Johnson #98 · Dennis Johnson · aggregate +0.22 246. Ofahengaue #246 · Tevita Ofahengaue · aggregate +0.18 149. McAddley #149 · Jason McAddley · aggregate +0.08 164. Tant #164 · Jay Tant · aggregate +0.01 209. Cousins #209 · Jomo Cousins · aggregate +0.00 233. Janes #233 · Ron Janes · aggregate -0.01 168. Scott #168 · Yusuf Scott · aggregate -0.07 185. Scobey #185 · Josh Scobey · aggregate -0.07 193. Savoy #193 · Phil Savoy · aggregate -0.11 102. Barrett #102 · David Barrett · aggregate -0.11 84. Howard #84 · Ty Howard · aggregate -0.12 169. Foley #169 · Mike Foley · aggregate -0.12 162. McGee #162 · Dell McGee · aggregate -0.14 133. Fatafehi #133 · Mario Fatafehi · aggregate -0.15 175. Brown #175 · Rod Brown · aggregate -0.17 155. Johnson #155 · Paris Johnson · aggregate -0.20 166. Newcombe #166 · Bobby Newcombe · aggregate -0.21 202. Bradley #202 · Melvin Bradley · aggregate -0.24 202. Hill #202 · Renaldo Hill · aggregate -0.29 139. Carpenter #139 · Chad Carpenter · aggregate -0.30 49. Fisher #49 · Levar Fisher · aggregate -0.40 113. Dwyer #113 · Nate Dwyer · aggregate -0.40 161. Stamps #161 · Harry Stamps · aggregate -0.42 32. McElroy #32 · Leeland McElroy · aggregate -0.46 9. Knight #9 · Tom Knight · aggregate -0.48 51. Rutledge #51 · Johnny Rutledge · aggregate -0.49 36. Clement #36 · Anthony Clement · aggregate -0.50 54. Stone #54 · Michael Stone · aggregate -0.71 21. Shelton #21 · L.J. Shelton · aggregate -0.73 Shelton -0.7 3. Wadsworth #3 · Andre Wadsworth · aggregate -1.05 12. Bryant #12 · Wendell Bryant · aggregate -1.13 95. Pittman #95 · Michael Pittman · aggregate -1.27 71. Walker #71 · Darwin Walker · aggregate -2.25 Walker -2.3 33. Chavous #33 · Corey Chavous · aggregate -2.48 Chavous -2.5 3. Rice #3 · Simeon Rice · aggregate -2.53 Rice -2.5 34. Bosch #34 · Kyle Vanden Bosch · aggregate -3.38 Bosch -3.4 2. Davis #2 · Leonard Davis · aggregate -4.07 Davis -4.1 81. McCown #81 · Josh McCown · aggregate -5.65 McCown -5.7 7. Jones #7 · Thomas Jones · aggregate -5.91 Jones -5.9 Incremental contribution by season -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 1996 · James Dexter · incremental +0.11 1996 · Johnny McWilliams · incremental +0.14 1996 · Aaron Graham · incremental +0.21 1996 · Jarius Hayes · incremental +0.30 1996 · Dell McGee · incremental -0.01 1996 · Mike Foley · incremental -0.30 1996 · Leeland McElroy · incremental -0.32 1996 · Harry Stamps · incremental -0.72 1996 · Simeon Rice · incremental -1.54 1997 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.02 1997 · Tony McCombs · incremental +0.12 1997 · Aaron Graham · incremental +0.22 1997 · Johnny McWilliams · incremental +0.32 1997 · James Dexter · incremental +0.40 1997 · Mark Smith · incremental +0.43 1997 · Chris Dishman · incremental -0.04 1997 · Ty Howard · incremental -0.23 1997 · Leeland McElroy · incremental -0.31 1997 · Rod Brown · incremental -0.33 1997 · Tom Knight · incremental -0.38 1997 · Simeon Rice · incremental -0.42 1997 · Chad Carpenter · incremental -0.54 1998 · Terry Hardy · incremental +0.10 1998 · Jarius Hayes · incremental +0.13 1998 · Zack Walz · incremental +0.24 1998 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.31 1998 · Aaron Graham · incremental +0.35 1998 · Johnny McWilliams · incremental +0.46 1998 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.53 1998 · Tony McCombs · incremental +0.61 1998 · James Dexter · incremental +0.78 1998 · Mark Smith · incremental +0.78 1998 · Pat Tillman · incremental +0.81 1998 · Ty Howard · incremental -0.00 1998 · Tom Knight · incremental -0.02 1998 · Ron Janes · incremental -0.07 1998 · Jomo Cousins · incremental -0.10 1998 · Phil Savoy · incremental -0.24 1998 · Dell McGee · incremental -0.30 1998 · Simeon Rice · incremental -0.50 1998 · Anthony Clement · incremental -0.73 1998 · Michael Pittman · incremental -0.77 1998 · Andre Wadsworth · incremental -0.78 1998 · Corey Chavous · incremental -1.73 1999 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.02 1999 · Mark Smith · incremental +0.03 1999 · Tom Burke · incremental +0.21 1999 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.26 1999 · James Dexter · incremental +0.27 1999 · Johnny McWilliams · incremental +0.27 1999 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.31 1999 · Dennis McKinley · incremental +0.31 1999 · Coby Rhinehart · incremental +0.34 1999 · Aaron Graham · incremental +0.40 1999 · Zack Walz · incremental +0.41 1999 · Pat Tillman · incremental +0.45 1999 · Joel Makovicka · incremental +0.48 1999 · Chris Greisen · incremental +0.59 1999 · Terry Hardy · incremental +0.71 1999 · David Boston · incremental -0.01 1999 · Johnny Rutledge · incremental -0.02 1999 · Tom Knight · incremental -0.04 1999 · Yusuf Scott · incremental -0.19 1999 · Michael Pittman · incremental -0.19 1999 · Andre Wadsworth · incremental -0.31 1999 · Paris Johnson · incremental -0.43 1999 · Melvin Bradley · incremental -0.44 1999 · Corey Chavous · incremental -0.53 1999 · L.J. Shelton · incremental -1.03 1999 · Simeon Rice · incremental -1.10 2000 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.02 2000 · Tom Burke · incremental +0.02 2000 · Yusuf Scott · incremental +0.08 2000 · Chris Greisen · incremental +0.13 2000 · Jabari Issa · incremental +0.14 2000 · Sekou Sanyika · incremental +0.23 2000 · Zack Walz · incremental +0.25 2000 · Raynoch Thompson · incremental +0.28 2000 · Dennis McKinley · incremental +0.30 2000 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.34 2000 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.40 2000 · Mark Smith · incremental +0.44 2000 · Mao Tosi · incremental +0.45 2000 · Joel Makovicka · incremental +0.47 2000 · Terry Hardy · incremental +0.98 2000 · Pat Tillman · incremental +1.05 2000 · L.J. Shelton · incremental -0.00 2000 · David Boston · incremental -0.01 2000 · Tom Knight · incremental -0.02 2000 · David Barrett · incremental -0.16 2000 · Jay Tant · incremental -0.18 2000 · Andre Wadsworth · incremental -0.25 2000 · Corey Chavous · incremental -0.30 2000 · Simeon Rice · incremental -0.32 2000 · Johnny Rutledge · incremental -0.54 2000 · Michael Pittman · incremental -0.56 2000 · Darwin Walker · incremental -3.56 2000 · Thomas Jones · incremental -6.11 2001 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.00 2001 · David Barrett · incremental +0.03 2001 · Yusuf Scott · incremental +0.04 2001 · Tevita Ofahengaue · incremental +0.06 2001 · Marcus Bell · incremental +0.10 2001 · Mao Tosi · incremental +0.15 2001 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.24 2001 · Dennis McKinley · incremental +0.27 2001 · Tom Burke · incremental +0.28 2001 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.28 2001 · Sekou Sanyika · incremental +0.29 2001 · Coby Rhinehart · incremental +0.30 2001 · Terry Hardy · incremental +0.31 2001 · Zack Walz · incremental +0.32 2001 · Bill Gramatica · incremental +0.39 2001 · Jabari Issa · incremental +0.45 2001 · Raynoch Thompson · incremental +0.51 2001 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.53 2001 · Joel Makovicka · incremental +0.61 2001 · Pat Tillman · incremental +0.80 2001 · David Boston · incremental +2.85 2001 · L.J. Shelton · incremental -0.02 2001 · Tom Knight · incremental -0.04 2001 · Johnny Rutledge · incremental -0.11 2001 · Renaldo Hill · incremental -0.16 2001 · Mario Fatafehi · incremental -0.31 2001 · Bobby Newcombe · incremental -0.41 2001 · Michael Pittman · incremental -0.54 2001 · Michael Stone · incremental -0.67 2001 · Corey Chavous · incremental -1.26 2001 · Thomas Jones · incremental -1.56 2001 · Kyle Vanden Bosch · incremental -1.71 2001 · Leonard Davis · incremental -5.36 2002 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.00 2002 · David Barrett · incremental +0.03 2002 · Johnny Rutledge · incremental +0.04 2002 · Dennis Johnson · incremental +0.07 2002 · Tom Burke · incremental +0.07 2002 · Jason McAddley · incremental +0.12 2002 · Joel Makovicka · incremental +0.21 2002 · Marcus Bell · incremental +0.22 2002 · Bill Gramatica · incremental +0.33 2002 · Mike Banks · incremental +0.34 2002 · Dennis McKinley · incremental +0.37 2002 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.37 2002 · Jake Plummer · incremental +0.44 2002 · Coby Rhinehart · incremental +0.48 2002 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.53 2002 · Raynoch Thompson · incremental +0.57 2002 · L.J. Shelton · incremental -0.01 2002 · David Boston · incremental -0.01 2002 · Renaldo Hill · incremental -0.05 2002 · Josh Scobey · incremental -0.14 2002 · Levar Fisher · incremental -0.17 2002 · Michael Stone · incremental -0.18 2002 · Leonard Davis · incremental -0.29 2002 · Nate Dwyer · incremental -0.72 2002 · Wendell Bryant · incremental -0.81 2002 · Josh McCown · incremental -1.51 2002 · Thomas Jones · incremental -2.16 2002 · Kyle Vanden Bosch · incremental -2.58 2003 · L.J. Shelton · incremental +0.00 2003 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.02 2003 · Mike Banks · incremental +0.04 2003 · Josh Scobey · incremental +0.04 2003 · David Barrett · incremental +0.05 2003 · Bill Gramatica · incremental +0.10 2003 · Chris Dishman · incremental +0.20 2003 · Dennis Johnson · incremental +0.25 2003 · Marcus Bell · incremental +0.27 2003 · Raynoch Thompson · incremental +0.42 2003 · Coby Rhinehart · incremental +0.48 2003 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.58 2003 · Jason McAddley · incremental -0.03 2003 · Renaldo Hill · incremental -0.09 2003 · Leonard Davis · incremental -0.25 2003 · Levar Fisher · incremental -0.45 2003 · Wendell Bryant · incremental -0.78 2003 · Josh McCown · incremental -1.43 2004 · Josh Scobey · incremental +0.02 2004 · Anthony Clement · incremental +0.02 2004 · Raynoch Thompson · incremental +0.21 2004 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.67 2004 · L.J. Shelton · incremental -0.01 2004 · Wendell Bryant · incremental -0.03 2004 · Renaldo Hill · incremental -0.08 2004 · Michael Stone · incremental -0.18 2004 · Leonard Davis · incremental -0.29 2004 · Kyle Vanden Bosch · incremental -1.02 2004 · Josh McCown · incremental -3.57 2005 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.64 2005 · Leonard Davis · incremental -0.32 2005 · Josh McCown · incremental -2.15 2006 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +1.73 2006 · Leonard Davis · incremental -0.36 2007 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.34 2008 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +1.61 2009 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +3.51 2010 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +1.63 2011 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +1.68 2012 · Adrian Wilson · incremental +0.57 Chavous -1.7 Shelton -1.0 Shelton -0.0 Walker -3.6 Jones -6.1 Boston +2.8 Shelton -0.0 Bosch -1.7 Davis -5.4 Shelton -0.0 Jones -2.2 Bosch -2.6 Shelton +0.0 Shelton -0.0 McCown -3.6 McCown -2.2 Wilson +1.7 Wilson +3.5 1996 9 players 1997 13 players 1998 22 players 1999 26 players 2000 28 players 2001 33 players 2002 28 players 2003 18 players 2004 11 players 2005 3 players 2006 2 players 2007 1 player 2008 1 player 2009 1 player 2010 1 player 2011 1 player 2012 1 player
How much retained production did L.J. Shelton return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of L.J. Shelton since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1 -0.5 0 Model value above slot 22. Castonzo Anthony Castonzo · model value +0.4 16. Decker Taylor Decker · model value +0.2 20. Bolles Garett Bolles · model value +0.1 23. Bulaga Bryan Bulaga · model value +0.1 17. Solder Nate Solder · model value -0.1 23. Howard Tytus Howard · model value -0.3 24. Humphries D.J. Humphries · model value -0.3 23. Wynn Isaiah Wynn · model value -0.4 21. Shelton L.J. Shelton · model value -0.4 -0.4 19. James Ja'Wuan James · model value -0.6 18. Jackson Austin Jackson · model value -0.6 22. Dillard Andre Dillard · model value -0.6 19. Penning Trevor Penning · model value -0.7 25. Carpenter James Carpenter · model value -0.7 21. Ogbuehi Cedric Ogbuehi · model value -0.7 23. Reiff Riley Reiff · model value -0.9 19. Pugh Justin Pugh · model value -1 L.J. Shelton
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 0 32 64 95 127 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.