Todd Sauerbrun · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Todd Sauerbrun across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played178

Games started0

Weighted career AV25

Pro Bowls3

AP1 All-Pro2

Career seasons13

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

1995 · Round 2 · #56

CHI draft credit

GM Rod Graves

Team games66

Team starts0

On-team AV9

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-3.32 contribution20th of 22 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Todd Sauerbrun became a 13-season, 178-game NFL player after going #56. The retained-value model still ranks him 20th of 22 for Rod Graves because CHI only got 66 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.32. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Rod Graves's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 178 full-career

Games started

on drafting team

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 25

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

3 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

2 full-career · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Rod Graves's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Rod Graves pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Todd Sauerbrun totals -3.32. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationTodd SauerbrunGM total -13.3Todd Sauerbrun by season -5.3

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
1995	CHI	15	—	—	1	—
1996	CHI	16	—	—	3	—
1997	CHI	16	—	—	2	—
1998	CHI	3	—	—	1	—
1999	CHI	16	—	—	2	—
2000	KC	16	—	—	3	—
2001	CAR	16	—	—	5	—
2002	CAR	16	—	—	4	—
2003	CAR	16	—	—	3	—
2004	CAR	16	—	—	3	—
2005	DEN	16	—	—	2	—
2006	NE	2	—	—	0	—
2007	DEN	14	—	—	2	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.