Terrible-0.97 contribution22nd of 27 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Paul Smith became a 8-season, 79-game NFL player after going #132. The retained-value model still ranks him 22nd of 27 for Bill Walsh because SF only got 36 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.97. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bill Walsh's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
36
on drafting team · 79 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team · 8 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
2
modeled; full weighted AV 3
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bill Walsh's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bill Walsh pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Paul Smith totals -0.97. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationPaul SmithGM total -3.8Paul Smith by season -1.4
How much retained production did Paul Smith return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: RBs drafted within ±5 picks of Paul Smith since 2010 (20 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Paul SmithSlot-similar peers (20)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2000
SF
10
0
—
—
1
—
2001
SF
15
0
—
—
0
—
2002
SF
11
0
—
—
1
—
2003
DET
7
0
—
—
0
—
2004
—
0
0
—
—
0
—
2005
DET
12
5
—
—
1
—
2006
LAR
10
3
—
—
0
—
2007
DEN
14
0
—
—
0
—
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
