Excellent+5.94 contribution1st of 16 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Kyle Williams was Marv Levy's 1st-best of 16 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +5.94. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Marv Levy's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
183
on drafting team
Games started
178
on drafting team
Snap-z
7.5
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
102
modeled; full weighted AV 79
AV / 1k snaps
11.7
4,518 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
4
6 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Marv Levy's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Marv Levy pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Kyle Williams totals +5.94. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationKyle WilliamsGM total -2.7Kyle Williams by season +14.1
How much retained production did Kyle Williams return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Kyle Williams since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Kyle WilliamsSlot-similar peers (14)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2006
BUF
16
11
—
—
6
—
2007
BUF
16
16
—
—
7
—
2008
BUF
16
16
—
—
7
—
2009
BUF
14
14
—
—
7
—
2010
BUF
16
16
—
—
12
—
✓
·
2011
BUF
5
5
—
—
2
—
2012
BUF
16
16
—
—
8
—
✓
2013
BUF
16
16
957
1.7
11
11.5
2014
BUF
15
14
770
1.3
12
15.6
2015
BUF
6
6
374
-0.1
3
8.0
2016
BUF
15
15
844
1.6
9
10.7
✓
2017
BUF
16
16
835
1.7
6
7.2
2018
BUF
16
16
738
1.3
12
16.3
✓
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
