All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Fred Robbins across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 180
Games started 148
Weighted career AV 51
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 12
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 56
Team starts 39
On-team AV 14
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -2.21 contribution 64th of 66 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Fred Robbins became a 12-season, 180-game NFL player after going #55. The retained-value model still ranks him 64th of 66 for Frank Gilliam because MIN only got 56 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.21 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Frank Gilliam's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
56
on drafting team · 180 full-career
Games started
39
on drafting team · 148 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
14
modeled; full weighted AV 51
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Frank Gilliam's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Frank Gilliam pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Fred Robbins totals -2.21 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 173. Birk #173 · Matt Birk · aggregate +5.10 Birk +5.1 21. Moss #21 · Randy Moss · aggregate +4.48 Moss +4.5 11. Culpepper #11 · Daunte Culpepper · aggregate +3.39 Culpepper +3.4 24. Stringer #24 · Korey Stringer · aggregate +3.13 Stringer +3.1 42. Thomas #42 · Orlando Thomas · aggregate +2.19 Thomas +2.2 185. Sawyer #185 · Talance Sawyer · aggregate +1.41 179. Jordan #179 · Andrew Jordan · aggregate +0.76 11. Alexander #11 · Derrick Alexander · aggregate +0.69 69. Kelly #69 · Eric Kelly · aggregate +0.57 151. Williams #151 · Tony Williams · aggregate +0.47 235. Hatchette #235 · Matthew Hatchette · aggregate +0.28 244. Cole #244 · Giles Cole · aggregate +0.19 55. Smith #55 · Fernando Smith · aggregate +0.14 236. Scarlett #236 · Noel Scarlett · aggregate +0.07 232. White #232 · Jose White · aggregate +0.06 20. Rudd #20 · Dwayne Rudd · aggregate +0.06 78. Colinet #78 · Stalin Colinet · aggregate +0.06 225. Darden #225 · Tony Darden · aggregate +0.03 113. Banks #113 · Antonio Banks · aggregate +0.01 211. Bercich #211 · Pete Bercich · aggregate -0.01 111. May #111 · Chad May · aggregate -0.04 248. Kelly #248 · Lewis Kelly · aggregate -0.08 75. Williams #75 · Moe Williams · aggregate -0.08 189. Scott #189 · Carey Scott · aggregate -0.09 88. Chapman #88 · Doug Chapman · aggregate -0.11 157. Stewart #157 · James Stewart · aggregate -0.14 80. McDonald #80 · Ramos McDonald · aggregate -0.17 110. Mays #110 · Kivuusama Mays · aggregate -0.19 240. Malano #240 · Mike Malano · aggregate -0.20 148. Boyd #148 · Sean Boyd · aggregate -0.22 223. Merrill #223 · Jon Merrill · aggregate -0.23 208. Burnett #208 · Chester Burnett · aggregate -0.23 199. Dalton #199 · Antico Dalton · aggregate -0.23 144. Cooks #144 · Kerry Cooks · aggregate -0.24 225. Crawford #225 · Brian Crawford · aggregate -0.24 130. Worthen #130 · Shawn Worthen · aggregate -0.26 97. Goodwin #97 · Hunter Goodwin · aggregate -0.29 134. Hammonds #134 · Shelly Hammonds · aggregate -0.29 189. Solomon #189 · John Solomon · aggregate -0.29 131. James #131 · Cedric James · aggregate -0.30 25. Hovan #25 · Chris Hovan · aggregate -0.33 106. Wilson #106 · Antonio Wilson · aggregate -0.34 169. Jones #169 · Chris Jones · aggregate -0.35 40. Palmer #40 · David Palmer · aggregate -0.36 44. Kleinsasser #44 · Jim Kleinsasser · aggregate -0.36 27. Bennett #27 · Michael Bennett · aggregate -0.45 49. Gray #49 · Torrian Gray · aggregate -0.47 183. Tate #183 · Robert Tate · aggregate -0.48 120. Wright #120 · Kenny Wright · aggregate -0.50 125. Humphrey #125 · Jay Humphrey · aggregate -0.57 55. Fuller #55 · Corey Fuller · aggregate -0.58 157. Chukwurah #157 · Patrick Chukwurah · aggregate -0.61 57. Howard #57 · Willie Howard · aggregate -0.68 51. Wong #51 · Kailee Wong · aggregate -0.71 56. Boireau #56 · Michael Boireau · aggregate -0.82 45. Manley #45 · James Manley · aggregate -0.95 165. Walters #165 · Troy Walters · aggregate -1.12 29. Underwood #29 · Dimitrius Underwood · aggregate -1.22 243. Fisk #243 · Jason Fisk · aggregate -1.41 125. Wells #125 · Mike Wells · aggregate -1.43 220. Ulmer #220 · Artie Ulmer · aggregate -1.73 118. Carter #118 · Tyrone Carter · aggregate -1.73 19. Steussie #19 · Todd Steussie · aggregate -1.83 55. Robbins #55 · Fred Robbins · aggregate -2.21 Robbins -2.2 16. Clemons #16 · Duane Clemons · aggregate -2.36 Clemons -2.4 18. Washington #18 · Dewayne Washington · aggregate -2.65 Washington -2.6 Incremental contribution by season -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 1994 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.29 1994 · Pete Bercich · incremental -0.04 1994 · Fernando Smith · incremental -0.07 1994 · Shelly Hammonds · incremental -0.14 1994 · David Palmer · incremental -0.25 1994 · Mike Wells · incremental -2.32 1994 · Dewayne Washington · incremental -2.73 1994 · Todd Steussie · incremental -3.96 1995 · Fernando Smith · incremental +0.03 1995 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.03 1995 · David Palmer · incremental +0.08 1995 · Pete Bercich · incremental +0.10 1995 · Derrick Alexander · incremental +0.22 1995 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.25 1995 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.42 1995 · Korey Stringer · incremental +0.56 1995 · Chad May · incremental -0.11 1995 · Jason Fisk · incremental -0.20 1995 · James Stewart · incremental -0.30 1995 · Shelly Hammonds · incremental -0.42 1995 · Dewayne Washington · incremental -0.48 1995 · John Solomon · incremental -0.53 1995 · Corey Fuller · incremental -0.57 1996 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.03 1996 · Fernando Smith · incremental +0.13 1996 · Derrick Alexander · incremental +0.24 1996 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.28 1996 · Korey Stringer · incremental +0.61 1996 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.66 1996 · Pete Bercich · incremental -0.05 1996 · Hunter Goodwin · incremental -0.10 1996 · Corey Fuller · incremental -0.10 1996 · David Palmer · incremental -0.10 1996 · Jon Merrill · incremental -0.42 1996 · Moe Williams · incremental -0.43 1996 · Sean Boyd · incremental -0.46 1996 · Dewayne Washington · incremental -0.59 1996 · Jason Fisk · incremental -0.72 1996 · Duane Clemons · incremental -0.95 1996 · James Manley · incremental -1.54 1997 · Tony Williams · incremental +0.00 1997 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.03 1997 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.04 1997 · Fernando Smith · incremental +0.07 1997 · David Palmer · incremental +0.10 1997 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.14 1997 · Pete Bercich · incremental +0.15 1997 · Matthew Hatchette · incremental +0.16 1997 · Derrick Alexander · incremental +0.31 1997 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.52 1997 · Korey Stringer · incremental +0.62 1997 · Stalin Colinet · incremental -0.01 1997 · Antonio Banks · incremental -0.02 1997 · Corey Fuller · incremental -0.05 1997 · Robert Tate · incremental -0.14 1997 · Dwayne Rudd · incremental -0.23 1997 · Hunter Goodwin · incremental -0.34 1997 · Torrian Gray · incremental -0.48 1997 · Dewayne Washington · incremental -0.51 1997 · Duane Clemons · incremental -0.61 1997 · Jason Fisk · incremental -0.91 1997 · Artie Ulmer · incremental -2.73 1998 · Robert Tate · incremental +0.01 1998 · Antonio Banks · incremental +0.01 1998 · David Palmer · incremental +0.03 1998 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.03 1998 · Stalin Colinet · incremental +0.04 1998 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.04 1998 · Matthew Hatchette · incremental +0.09 1998 · Dwayne Rudd · incremental +0.11 1998 · Hunter Goodwin · incremental +0.11 1998 · Tony Williams · incremental +0.23 1998 · Derrick Alexander · incremental +0.36 1998 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.61 1998 · Korey Stringer · incremental +0.62 1998 · Randy Moss · incremental +1.72 1998 · Pete Bercich · incremental -0.05 1998 · Tony Darden · incremental -0.08 1998 · Corey Fuller · incremental -0.09 1998 · Ramos McDonald · incremental -0.12 1998 · Jason Fisk · incremental -0.23 1998 · Torrian Gray · incremental -0.24 1998 · Kivuusama Mays · incremental -0.26 1998 · Matt Birk · incremental -0.35 1998 · Chester Burnett · incremental -0.44 1998 · Kailee Wong · incremental -0.46 1998 · Kerry Cooks · incremental -0.49 1998 · Duane Clemons · incremental -0.72 1999 · Noel Scarlett · incremental +0.01 1999 · Stalin Colinet · incremental +0.01 1999 · Talance Sawyer · incremental +0.02 1999 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.03 1999 · Dwayne Rudd · incremental +0.09 1999 · Matt Birk · incremental +0.11 1999 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.14 1999 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.15 1999 · Matthew Hatchette · incremental +0.17 1999 · Tony Williams · incremental +0.28 1999 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.52 1999 · Randy Moss · incremental +0.62 1999 · Korey Stringer · incremental +0.70 1999 · Kivuusama Mays · incremental -0.02 1999 · Robert Tate · incremental -0.06 1999 · Antonio Banks · incremental -0.08 1999 · Kailee Wong · incremental -0.14 1999 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental -0.15 1999 · Ramos McDonald · incremental -0.18 1999 · David Palmer · incremental -0.28 1999 · Kenny Wright · incremental -0.40 1999 · Antico Dalton · incremental -0.43 1999 · Chris Jones · incremental -0.62 1999 · Jay Humphrey · incremental -0.97 1999 · Duane Clemons · incremental -1.36 1999 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental -1.53 1999 · Dimitrius Underwood · incremental -1.95 2000 · Fernando Smith · incremental +0.00 2000 · Pete Bercich · incremental +0.02 2000 · Todd Steussie · incremental +0.04 2000 · Matthew Hatchette · incremental +0.04 2000 · Giles Cole · incremental +0.06 2000 · David Palmer · incremental +0.06 2000 · Antonio Banks · incremental +0.07 2000 · Dwayne Rudd · incremental +0.07 2000 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.09 2000 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.16 2000 · Tony Williams · incremental +0.25 2000 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.25 2000 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.35 2000 · Talance Sawyer · incremental +1.01 2000 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +1.38 2000 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.46 2000 · Korey Stringer · incremental +1.83 2000 · Randy Moss · incremental +2.12 2000 · Lewis Kelly · incremental -0.02 2000 · Doug Chapman · incremental -0.04 2000 · Antonio Wilson · incremental -0.04 2000 · Kenny Wright · incremental -0.16 2000 · Kailee Wong · incremental -0.21 2000 · Robert Tate · incremental -0.32 2000 · Mike Malano · incremental -0.37 2000 · Chris Hovan · incremental -0.59 2000 · Fred Robbins · incremental -0.88 2000 · Tyrone Carter · incremental -1.03 2000 · Michael Boireau · incremental -1.36 2000 · Troy Walters · incremental -1.52 2001 · Chris Hovan · incremental +0.04 2001 · Carey Scott · incremental +0.06 2001 · Stalin Colinet · incremental +0.06 2001 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.10 2001 · Randy Moss · incremental +0.15 2001 · Andrew Jordan · incremental +0.25 2001 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +0.30 2001 · Eric Kelly · incremental +0.37 2001 · Orlando Thomas · incremental +0.44 2001 · Talance Sawyer · incremental +1.06 2001 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.43 2001 · Lewis Kelly · incremental -0.00 2001 · Robert Tate · incremental -0.07 2001 · Doug Chapman · incremental -0.11 2001 · Kenny Wright · incremental -0.16 2001 · Troy Walters · incremental -0.18 2001 · Antonio Wilson · incremental -0.19 2001 · Cedric James · incremental -0.19 2001 · Kailee Wong · incremental -0.23 2001 · Brian Crawford · incremental -0.43 2001 · Shawn Worthen · incremental -0.48 2001 · Patrick Chukwurah · incremental -0.58 2001 · Michael Bennett · incremental -0.59 2001 · Fred Robbins · incremental -0.75 2001 · Tyrone Carter · incremental -0.77 2001 · Willie Howard · incremental -1.11 2002 · Chris Hovan · incremental +0.02 2002 · Talance Sawyer · incremental +0.03 2002 · Hunter Goodwin · incremental +0.08 2002 · Michael Bennett · incremental +0.16 2002 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.16 2002 · Matt Birk · incremental +0.39 2002 · Eric Kelly · incremental +0.42 2002 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +0.44 2002 · Randy Moss · incremental +0.59 2002 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental -0.01 2002 · Doug Chapman · incremental -0.01 2002 · Lewis Kelly · incremental -0.13 2002 · Carey Scott · incremental -0.31 2002 · Cedric James · incremental -0.32 2002 · Patrick Chukwurah · incremental -0.33 2002 · Antonio Wilson · incremental -0.34 2002 · Tyrone Carter · incremental -0.78 2002 · Fred Robbins · incremental -0.87 2003 · Doug Chapman · incremental +0.01 2003 · Chris Hovan · incremental +0.04 2003 · Talance Sawyer · incremental +0.05 2003 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.06 2003 · Hunter Goodwin · incremental +0.08 2003 · Eric Kelly · incremental +0.19 2003 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +1.31 2003 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.50 2003 · Randy Moss · incremental +2.14 2003 · Lewis Kelly · incremental -0.01 2003 · Michael Bennett · incremental -0.09 2003 · Moe Williams · incremental -0.44 2003 · Fred Robbins · incremental -0.82 2004 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.02 2004 · Chris Hovan · incremental +0.02 2004 · Moe Williams · incremental +0.06 2004 · Randy Moss · incremental +0.11 2004 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.35 2004 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +1.38 2004 · Michael Bennett · incremental -0.10 2005 · Daunte Culpepper · incremental +0.15 2005 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.28 2005 · Moe Williams · incremental -0.03 2005 · Michael Bennett · incremental -0.13 2006 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.31 2006 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.39 2007 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.28 2007 · Matt Birk · incremental +1.40 2008 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.22 2008 · Matt Birk · incremental +0.36 2009 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.18 2010 · Randy Moss · incremental +0.01 2010 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.17 2011 · Jim Kleinsasser · incremental +0.29 Wells -2.3 Washington -2.7 Steussie -4.0 Manley -1.5 Ulmer -2.7 Moss +1.7 Kleinsasser -1.5 Underwood -1.9 Stringer +1.8 Moss +2.1 Robbins -0.9 Walters -1.5 Robbins -0.7 Robbins -0.9 Moss +2.1 Robbins -0.8 1994 8 players 1995 15 players 1996 17 players 1997 22 players 1998 26 players 1999 27 players 2000 30 players 2001 26 players 2002 18 players 2003 13 players 2004 7 players 2005 4 players 2006 2 players 2007 2 players 2008 2 players 2009 1 player 2010 2 players 2011 1 player
How much retained production did Fred Robbins return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Fred Robbins since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1 -0.5 0 +0.5 Model value above slot 56. Davis Raekwon Davis · model value +0.7 57. Cody Terrence Cody · model value +0.3 54. Hall Michael Hall · model value 0 55. Tomlinson Dalvin Tomlinson · model value 0 57. Hall P.J. Hall · model value -0.1 58. Hill Trysten Hill · model value -0.3 52. Austin Marvin Austin · model value -0.4 53. Still Devon Still · model value -0.4 53. Paea Stephen Paea · model value -0.4 51. Ferguson Ego Ferguson · model value -0.5 51. Worthy Jerel Worthy · model value -0.6 55. Robbins Fred Robbins · model value -1.1 -1.1 Fred Robbins
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '11 0 37 74 111 148 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.