Terrible-1.33 contribution14th of 16 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Justin Peelle became a 10-season, 151-game NFL player after going #103. The retained-value model still ranks him 14th of 16 for John Butler because LAC only got 62 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.33. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Butler's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
62
on drafting team · 151 full-career
Games started
19
on drafting team · 68 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
2
modeled; full weighted AV 8
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move John Butler's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every John Butler pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Justin Peelle totals -1.33. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJustin PeelleGM total -0.0Justin Peelle by season -1.9
How much retained production did Justin Peelle return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Justin Peelle since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Justin PeelleSlot-similar peers (16)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2002
LAC
15
2
—
—
0
—
2003
LAC
15
9
—
—
1
—
2004
LAC
16
4
—
—
1
—
2005
LAC
16
4
—
—
0
—
2006
MIA
15
10
—
—
1
—
2007
MIA
16
10
—
—
2
—
2008
ATL
16
11
—
—
2
—
2009
ATL
15
8
—
—
1
—
2010
ATL
13
8
—
—
1
—
2011
SF
14
2
—
—
0
—
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
