All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Audray McMillian across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 123
Games started 45
Weighted career AV 34
Pro Bowls 1
AP1 All-Pro 1
Career seasons 9
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 0
Team starts 0
On-team AV 0
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -2.38 contribution 51st of 55 picks for this GM
Games: complete career recorded elsewhere. Starts: zero starts from zero team games.
Audray McMillian became a 9-season, 123-game NFL player after going #84. The retained-value model still ranks him 51st of 55 for Patrick Sullivan because NE only got 0 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.38 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Patrick Sullivan's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
0
on drafting team · 123 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team · 45 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
0
modeled; full weighted AV 34
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
1 full-career · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Patrick Sullivan's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Patrick Sullivan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Audray McMillian totals -2.38 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 23. Armstrong #23 · Bruce Armstrong · aggregate +4.25 Armstrong +4.3 96. Hurst #96 · Maurice Hurst · aggregate +3.35 Hurst +3.3 43. Brown #43 · Vincent Brown · aggregate +3.00 Brown +3.0 63. Cook #63 · Marv Cook · aggregate +2.97 Cook +3.0 87. Goad #87 · Tim Goad · aggregate +2.71 Goad +2.7 101. Rembert #101 · Johnny Rembert · aggregate +2.69 Rembert +2.7 192. Williams #192 · Brent Williams · aggregate +2.44 Williams +2.4 187. James #187 · Craig James · aggregate +1.91 17. Stephens #17 · John Stephens · aggregate +1.14 124. Fairchild #124 · Paul Fairchild · aggregate +1.01 151. Gibson #151 · Ernest Gibson · aggregate +0.68 80. Moore #80 · Steve Moore · aggregate +0.62 74. Starring #74 · Stephen Starring · aggregate +0.59 48. Veris #48 · Garin Veris · aggregate +0.53 79. Perryman #79 · Bob Perryman · aggregate +0.49 52. Bowman #52 · Jim Bowman · aggregate +0.43 15. Eason #15 · Tony Eason · aggregate +0.41 192. Williams #192 · Derwin Williams · aggregate +0.26 184. Kallmeyer #184 · Bruce Kallmeyer · aggregate +0.14 107. Jordan #107 · Tim Jordan · aggregate +0.10 100. Garcia #100 · Teddy Garcia · aggregate +0.07 154. Johnson #154 · Steve Johnson · aggregate +0.04 97. Martin #97 · Sammy Martin · aggregate +0.01 155. Bass #155 · Mike Bass · aggregate +0.01 73. Gannon #73 · Chris Gannon · aggregate -0.19 100. Timpson #100 · Michael Timpson · aggregate -0.21 181. Usher #181 · Darryl Usher · aggregate -0.24 187. McDonald #187 · Ray McDonald · aggregate -0.27 165. Mitchel #165 · Eric Mitchel · aggregate -0.28 163. Taylor #163 · Gene Taylor · aggregate -0.31 178. Lindstrom #178 · Eric Lindstrom · aggregate -0.39 128. Lewis #128 · Darryl Lewis · aggregate -0.43 109. Gieselman #109 · Scott Gieselman · aggregate -0.43 116. Gibson #116 · Tom Gibson · aggregate -0.47 137. Robinson #137 · Greg Robinson · aggregate -0.49 102. Beasley #102 · Derrick Beasley · aggregate -0.57 69. Rehder #69 · Tom Rehder · aggregate -0.57 118. Creswell #118 · Smiley Creswell · aggregate -0.58 108. Phelan #108 · Gerard Phelan · aggregate -0.63 115. Wolkow #115 · Troy Wolkow · aggregate -0.71 26. Dupard #26 · Reggie Dupard · aggregate -0.72 16. Dykes #16 · Hart Lee Dykes · aggregate -0.82 70. Williams #70 · Jon Williams · aggregate -0.84 43. Coleman #43 · Eric Coleman · aggregate -0.86 43. Williams #43 · Ed Williams · aggregate -0.89 42. Ruth #42 · Mike Ruth · aggregate -0.99 113. Villa #113 · Danny Villa · aggregate -1.07 47. Wilson #47 · Darryal Wilson · aggregate -1.12 102. Toth #102 · Tom Toth · aggregate -1.22 56. Thomas #56 · Ben Thomas · aggregate -1.40 84. McMillian #84 · Audray McMillian · aggregate -2.38 McMillian -2.4 54. Glenn #54 · Vencie Glenn · aggregate -3.18 Glenn -3.2 28. Matich #28 · Trevor Matich · aggregate -5.03 Matich -5.0 98. Gannon #98 · Rich Gannon · aggregate -6.95 Gannon -7.0 1. Fryar #1 · Irving Fryar · aggregate -16.29 Fryar -16.3 Incremental contribution by season -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 1983 · Stephen Starring · incremental +0.12 1983 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.12 1983 · Steve Moore · incremental -0.02 1983 · Craig James · incremental -0.02 1983 · Mike Bass · incremental -0.18 1983 · Tony Eason · incremental -0.24 1983 · Darryl Lewis · incremental -0.87 1983 · Smiley Creswell · incremental -1.00 1983 · Darryal Wilson · incremental -1.73 1984 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.01 1984 · Bruce Kallmeyer · incremental +0.03 1984 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.09 1984 · Steve Moore · incremental +0.18 1984 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.22 1984 · Ernest Gibson · incremental +0.29 1984 · Stephen Starring · incremental +0.30 1984 · Craig James · incremental +0.52 1984 · Derwin Williams · incremental -0.02 1984 · Ed Williams · incremental -0.26 1984 · Jon Williams · incremental -1.32 1984 · Irving Fryar · incremental -14.09 1985 · Ernest Gibson · incremental +0.14 1985 · Jim Bowman · incremental +0.16 1985 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.16 1985 · Derwin Williams · incremental +0.18 1985 · Stephen Starring · incremental +0.21 1985 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.25 1985 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.31 1985 · Steve Moore · incremental +0.42 1985 · Craig James · incremental +1.87 1985 · Ed Williams · incremental -0.01 1985 · Garin Veris · incremental -0.06 1985 · Ben Thomas · incremental -0.98 1985 · Gerard Phelan · incremental -1.04 1985 · Tom Toth · incremental -1.97 1985 · Trevor Matich · incremental -2.49 1985 · Audray McMillian · incremental -3.80 1985 · Irving Fryar · incremental -12.85 1986 · Stephen Starring · incremental +0.20 1986 · Jim Bowman · incremental +0.20 1986 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.23 1986 · Ernest Gibson · incremental +0.23 1986 · Derwin Williams · incremental +0.23 1986 · Garin Veris · incremental +0.26 1986 · Steve Moore · incremental +0.31 1986 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.38 1986 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.43 1986 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.45 1986 · Craig James · incremental +0.57 1986 · Ed Williams · incremental -0.03 1986 · Greg Robinson · incremental -0.03 1986 · Reggie Dupard · incremental -0.14 1986 · Ray McDonald · incremental -0.49 1986 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.62 1986 · Scott Gieselman · incremental -0.88 1986 · Ben Thomas · incremental -1.21 1986 · Trevor Matich · incremental -1.33 1986 · Mike Ruth · incremental -1.44 1986 · Vencie Glenn · incremental -5.05 1987 · Craig James · incremental +0.02 1987 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.05 1987 · Jim Bowman · incremental +0.08 1987 · Steve Moore · incremental +0.12 1987 · Derwin Williams · incremental +0.15 1987 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.16 1987 · Stephen Starring · incremental +0.16 1987 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.19 1987 · Garin Veris · incremental +0.21 1987 · Ernest Gibson · incremental +0.25 1987 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.26 1987 · Bob Perryman · incremental -0.01 1987 · Tim Jordan · incremental -0.01 1987 · Gene Taylor · incremental -0.15 1987 · Mike Ruth · incremental -0.15 1987 · Reggie Dupard · incremental -0.34 1987 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.40 1987 · Ed Williams · incremental -0.72 1987 · Greg Robinson · incremental -0.82 1987 · Tom Gibson · incremental -0.83 1987 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.84 1987 · Derrick Beasley · incremental -1.00 1987 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental -1.34 1987 · Trevor Matich · incremental -1.90 1987 · Rich Gannon · incremental -10.63 1988 · Teddy Garcia · incremental +0.01 1988 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.02 1988 · Tim Jordan · incremental +0.09 1988 · Sammy Martin · incremental +0.11 1988 · Craig James · incremental +0.13 1988 · Garin Veris · incremental +0.17 1988 · Jim Bowman · incremental +0.21 1988 · Ernest Gibson · incremental +0.24 1988 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.26 1988 · Bob Perryman · incremental +0.39 1988 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.42 1988 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.58 1988 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.62 1988 · John Stephens · incremental +1.17 1988 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +1.46 1988 · Vincent Brown · incremental -0.02 1988 · Steve Johnson · incremental -0.06 1988 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.17 1988 · Reggie Dupard · incremental -0.36 1988 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.43 1988 · Darryl Usher · incremental -0.45 1988 · Tom Rehder · incremental -0.70 1988 · Troy Wolkow · incremental -1.18 1988 · Trevor Matich · incremental -2.38 1989 · Tony Eason · incremental +0.04 1989 · Tim Jordan · incremental +0.04 1989 · Jim Bowman · incremental +0.15 1989 · Marv Cook · incremental +0.16 1989 · John Stephens · incremental +0.27 1989 · Bob Perryman · incremental +0.36 1989 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.41 1989 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.47 1989 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.56 1989 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.60 1989 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.65 1989 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.66 1989 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +1.44 1989 · Chris Gannon · incremental -0.03 1989 · Tom Rehder · incremental -0.12 1989 · Sammy Martin · incremental -0.15 1989 · Reggie Dupard · incremental -0.21 1989 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.22 1989 · Michael Timpson · incremental -0.22 1989 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.29 1989 · Eric Mitchel · incremental -0.50 1989 · Eric Lindstrom · incremental -0.68 1989 · Hart Lee Dykes · incremental -0.73 1989 · Eric Coleman · incremental -1.15 1990 · Michael Timpson · incremental +0.02 1990 · Garin Veris · incremental +0.06 1990 · Paul Fairchild · incremental +0.08 1990 · Sammy Martin · incremental +0.10 1990 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.14 1990 · Bob Perryman · incremental +0.17 1990 · John Stephens · incremental +0.31 1990 · Marv Cook · incremental +0.40 1990 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.56 1990 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.56 1990 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.60 1990 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.74 1990 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.75 1990 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.17 1990 · Eric Coleman · incremental -0.20 1990 · Chris Gannon · incremental -0.27 1990 · Ed Williams · incremental -0.27 1990 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.45 1990 · Hart Lee Dykes · incremental -0.49 1991 · Michael Timpson · incremental +0.03 1991 · Sammy Martin · incremental +0.04 1991 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.15 1991 · Garin Veris · incremental +0.15 1991 · John Stephens · incremental +0.16 1991 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.60 1991 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.63 1991 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.73 1991 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.76 1991 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.78 1991 · Marv Cook · incremental +3.57 1991 · Chris Gannon · incremental -0.01 1991 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.10 1991 · Gene Taylor · incremental -0.40 1991 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.54 1992 · Michael Timpson · incremental +0.04 1992 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.24 1992 · Johnny Rembert · incremental +0.29 1992 · John Stephens · incremental +0.33 1992 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.54 1992 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.56 1992 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.65 1992 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.82 1992 · Marv Cook · incremental +1.44 1992 · Chris Gannon · incremental -0.00 1992 · Irving Fryar · incremental -0.48 1993 · Chris Gannon · incremental +0.01 1993 · Brent Williams · incremental +0.21 1993 · Marv Cook · incremental +0.34 1993 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.54 1993 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.65 1993 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.67 1993 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.85 1993 · Michael Timpson · incremental -0.03 1994 · Tim Goad · incremental +0.58 1994 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.61 1994 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.72 1994 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.89 1994 · Michael Timpson · incremental -0.12 1995 · Maurice Hurst · incremental +0.50 1995 · Vincent Brown · incremental +0.70 1995 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.76 1996 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.67 1997 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.61 1997 · Danny Villa · incremental -0.05 1998 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.56 1999 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.54 2000 · Bruce Armstrong · incremental +0.56 Wilson -1.7 Fryar -14.1 James +1.9 Toth -2.0 Matich -2.5 McMillian -3.8 Fryar -12.8 Glenn -5.0 Matich -1.9 Gannon -10.6 Matich -2.4 Cook +3.6 1983 9 players 1984 12 players 1985 17 players 1986 21 players 1987 25 players 1988 24 players 1989 24 players 1990 19 players 1991 15 players 1992 11 players 1993 8 players 1994 5 players 1995 3 players 1996 1 player 1997 2 players 1998 1 player 1999 1 player 2000 1 player
How much retained production did Audray McMillian return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Audray McMillian since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-0.5 0 +0.5 +1 Model value above slot 80. Culliver Chris Culliver · model value +1.2 89. Smith Tykee Smith · model value +0.6 80. Deablo Divine Deablo · model value +0.5 83. Moss Riley Moss · model value +0.2 80. Wilcox J.J. Wilcox · model value +0.1 84. Williams Shawn Williams · model value -0.1 89. Wright Shareece Wright · model value -0.1 88. Patrick Johnny Patrick · model value -0.1 81. Dyke DeMarcus Van Dyke · model value -0.2 80. Fleming Jamell Fleming · model value -0.2 80. McDougle Dexter McDougle · model value -0.3 79. Hardin Brandon Hardin · model value -0.3 85. Bentley Bill Bentley · model value -0.4 87. Gaines Phillip Gaines · model value -0.5 83. Ryan Logan Ryan · model value -0.5 79. Brooks Terrence Brooks · model value -0.9 84. McMillian Audray McMillian · model value -1 -1 Audray McMillian
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'86 '88 '90 '92 '93 0 11 23 34 45 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.