All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Jason Dunn across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 160
Games started 51
Weighted career AV 7
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 12
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 41
Team starts 26
On-team AV 5
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Terrible -3.01 contribution 51st of 54 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Jason Dunn became a 12-season, 160-game NFL player after going #54. The retained-value model still ranks him 51st of 54 for Tom Modrak because PHI only got 41 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.01 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Modrak's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
41
on drafting team · 160 full-career
Games started
26
on drafting team · 51 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
5
modeled; full weighted AV 7
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Tom Modrak's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Modrak pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jason Dunn totals -3.01 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 61. Dawkins #61 · Brian Dawkins · aggregate +11.23 Dawkins +11.2 2. McNabb #2 · Donovan McNabb · aggregate +5.76 McNabb +5.8 72. Trotter #72 · Jeremiah Trotter · aggregate +4.86 Trotter +4.9 11. Thomas #11 · Tra Thomas · aggregate +3.55 Thomas +3.6 50. Taylor #50 · Bobby Taylor · aggregate +3.01 Taylor +3.0 112. Whiting #112 · Brandon Whiting · aggregate +2.36 Whiting +2.4 36. Pinkston #36 · Todd Pinkston · aggregate +1.82 128. Moore #128 · Damon Moore · aggregate +1.51 72. Jefferson #72 · Greg Jefferson · aggregate +1.48 25. Mayberry #25 · Jermane Mayberry · aggregate +1.48 71. Staley #71 · Duce Staley · aggregate +1.39 172. Martin #172 · Cecil Martin · aggregate +1.29 6. Simon #6 · Corey Simon · aggregate +1.12 7. Mamula #7 · Mike Mamula · aggregate +0.88 142. Reese #142 · Ike Reese · aggregate +0.61 155. Broughton #155 · Luther Broughton · aggregate +0.49 121. Farmer #121 · Ray Farmer · aggregate +0.46 130. Brown #130 · Na Brown · aggregate +0.46 78. Jones #78 · Chris Jones · aggregate +0.39 97. Welbourn #97 · John Welbourn · aggregate +0.34 85. Hoying #85 · Bobby Hoying · aggregate +0.26 64. Brzezinski #64 · Doug Brzezinski · aggregate +0.20 251. Davis #251 · Pernell Davis · aggregate +0.13 208. Weaver #208 · Jed Weaver · aggregate +0.12 197. Johnson #197 · Tony Johnson · aggregate +0.07 227. Brown #227 · DeAuntae Brown · aggregate +0.04 225. Capers #225 · Byron Capers · aggregate +0.03 220. Akins #220 · Chris Akins · aggregate +0.03 119. Barr #119 · Dave Barr · aggregate +0.00 210. Bouie #210 · Kevin Bouie · aggregate -0.07 201. Smith #201 · Troy Smith · aggregate -0.07 207. Detmer #207 · Koy Detmer · aggregate -0.09 199. Riley #199 · Phillip Riley · aggregate -0.09 190. Wyatt #190 · Antwuan Wyatt · aggregate -0.10 178. Frank #178 · John Frank · aggregate -0.10 248. Smothers #248 · Howard Smothers · aggregate -0.16 240. Thomas #240 · Melvin Thomas · aggregate -0.18 171. Hamner #171 · Thomas Hamner · aggregate -0.20 192. Romero #192 · John Romero · aggregate -0.33 147. Marshall #147 · Whit Marshall · aggregate -0.42 35. Gardner #35 · Barry Gardner · aggregate -0.48 99. Scott #99 · Gari Scott · aggregate -0.48 116. Love #116 · Clarence Love · aggregate -0.65 25. Harris #25 · Jon Harris · aggregate -0.70 194. White #194 · Steve White · aggregate -0.77 119. Robinson #119 · Damien Robinson · aggregate -1.09 152. Kalu #152 · N.D. Kalu · aggregate -1.25 198. Jasper #198 · Ed Jasper · aggregate -1.26 58. Brooks #58 · Barrett Brooks · aggregate -1.47 57. Darling #57 · James Darling · aggregate -1.60 54. Dunn #54 · Jason Dunn · aggregate -3.01 Dunn -3.0 85. Rossum #85 · Allen Rossum · aggregate -3.13 Rossum -3.1 208. McCrary #208 · Fred McCrary · aggregate -3.40 McCrary -3.4 61. Williams #61 · Bobbie Williams · aggregate -4.16 Williams -4.2 Incremental contribution by season -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 +12 1995 · Greg Jefferson · incremental +0.01 1995 · Chris Jones · incremental +0.06 1995 · Mike Mamula · incremental +0.16 1995 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.23 1995 · Dave Barr · incremental -0.05 1995 · Kevin Bouie · incremental -0.17 1995 · Howard Smothers · incremental -0.33 1995 · Barrett Brooks · incremental -1.20 1995 · Fred McCrary · incremental -5.18 1996 · Greg Jefferson · incremental +0.18 1996 · Mike Mamula · incremental +0.38 1996 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.40 1996 · Ray Farmer · incremental +0.41 1996 · Chris Jones · incremental +0.46 1996 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.55 1996 · Bobby Hoying · incremental -0.00 1996 · Tony Johnson · incremental -0.11 1996 · Phillip Riley · incremental -0.21 1996 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental -0.31 1996 · Barrett Brooks · incremental -0.50 1996 · Whit Marshall · incremental -0.72 1996 · Steve White · incremental -1.29 1996 · Jason Dunn · incremental -2.83 1997 · Chris Jones · incremental +0.06 1997 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.18 1997 · Bobby Hoying · incremental +0.24 1997 · Ray Farmer · incremental +0.25 1997 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.34 1997 · Mike Mamula · incremental +0.36 1997 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.45 1997 · Greg Jefferson · incremental +0.60 1997 · Luther Broughton · incremental -0.02 1997 · DeAuntae Brown · incremental -0.04 1997 · Koy Detmer · incremental -0.06 1997 · Byron Capers · incremental -0.08 1997 · Antwuan Wyatt · incremental -0.22 1997 · N.D. Kalu · incremental -0.29 1997 · Barrett Brooks · incremental -0.42 1997 · Duce Staley · incremental -0.44 1997 · Jon Harris · incremental -0.49 1997 · Jason Dunn · incremental -0.88 1997 · James Darling · incremental -1.02 1997 · Ed Jasper · incremental -1.39 1997 · Damien Robinson · incremental -1.79 1998 · Ray Farmer · incremental +0.01 1998 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +0.06 1998 · Ike Reese · incremental +0.12 1998 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.23 1998 · Bobby Hoying · incremental +0.24 1998 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.35 1998 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.37 1998 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.38 1998 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.41 1998 · Greg Jefferson · incremental +0.70 1998 · Chris Akins · incremental -0.05 1998 · Barrett Brooks · incremental -0.14 1998 · Koy Detmer · incremental -0.32 1998 · Melvin Thomas · incremental -0.35 1998 · James Darling · incremental -0.55 1998 · Ed Jasper · incremental -0.57 1998 · Jon Harris · incremental -0.58 1998 · Tra Thomas · incremental -0.78 1998 · Jason Dunn · incremental -0.97 1998 · Clarence Love · incremental -1.09 1998 · Allen Rossum · incremental -3.68 1999 · Jed Weaver · incremental +0.10 1999 · Pernell Davis · incremental +0.11 1999 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.16 1999 · Ike Reese · incremental +0.19 1999 · Na Brown · incremental +0.28 1999 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.29 1999 · Damon Moore · incremental +0.33 1999 · Mike Mamula · incremental +0.33 1999 · Cecil Martin · incremental +0.34 1999 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +0.39 1999 · Luther Broughton · incremental +0.41 1999 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.43 1999 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.47 1999 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.51 1999 · Greg Jefferson · incremental +0.79 1999 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +1.44 1999 · Doug Brzezinski · incremental -0.00 1999 · Koy Detmer · incremental -0.04 1999 · Troy Smith · incremental -0.18 1999 · John Welbourn · incremental -0.21 1999 · Barry Gardner · incremental -0.32 1999 · Donovan McNabb · incremental -0.44 1999 · James Darling · incremental -0.69 1999 · Allen Rossum · incremental -1.23 2000 · Corey Simon · incremental +0.08 2000 · Doug Brzezinski · incremental +0.17 2000 · John Welbourn · incremental +0.18 2000 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.18 2000 · Ike Reese · incremental +0.19 2000 · Mike Mamula · incremental +0.23 2000 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.23 2000 · Todd Pinkston · incremental +0.24 2000 · Na Brown · incremental +0.25 2000 · Luther Broughton · incremental +0.27 2000 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.34 2000 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.41 2000 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.51 2000 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.54 2000 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.67 2000 · Cecil Martin · incremental +0.67 2000 · Damon Moore · incremental +0.92 2000 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.34 2000 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +3.24 2000 · James Darling · incremental -0.16 2000 · John Frank · incremental -0.26 2000 · Gari Scott · incremental -0.36 2000 · Thomas Hamner · incremental -0.37 2000 · Barry Gardner · incremental -0.42 2000 · John Romero · incremental -0.58 2000 · Bobbie Williams · incremental -1.46 2001 · Barry Gardner · incremental +0.03 2001 · Doug Brzezinski · incremental +0.16 2001 · Ike Reese · incremental +0.17 2001 · John Welbourn · incremental +0.18 2001 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.23 2001 · Corey Simon · incremental +0.26 2001 · Na Brown · incremental +0.28 2001 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.33 2001 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.39 2001 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.54 2001 · Todd Pinkston · incremental +0.63 2001 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.68 2001 · Cecil Martin · incremental +0.76 2001 · Damon Moore · incremental +1.00 2001 · Tra Thomas · incremental +1.05 2001 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.32 2001 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +1.52 2001 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +3.36 2001 · N.D. Kalu · incremental -0.17 2001 · Bobbie Williams · incremental -0.20 2001 · Gari Scott · incremental -0.45 2002 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.00 2002 · Barry Gardner · incremental +0.03 2002 · Doug Brzezinski · incremental +0.14 2002 · John Welbourn · incremental +0.14 2002 · Corey Simon · incremental +0.22 2002 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.49 2002 · Cecil Martin · incremental +0.59 2002 · Todd Pinkston · incremental +0.68 2002 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.81 2002 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.94 2002 · Tra Thomas · incremental +1.13 2002 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.14 2002 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +1.54 2002 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +3.38 2002 · N.D. Kalu · incremental -0.19 2002 · Ike Reese · incremental -0.28 2002 · Bobbie Williams · incremental -1.01 2003 · Ike Reese · incremental +0.03 2003 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.11 2003 · John Welbourn · incremental +0.17 2003 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.21 2003 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.23 2003 · Bobby Taylor · incremental +0.24 2003 · Duce Staley · incremental +0.31 2003 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.48 2003 · Todd Pinkston · incremental +0.67 2003 · Brandon Whiting · incremental +0.70 2003 · Corey Simon · incremental +1.05 2003 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.34 2003 · N.D. Kalu · incremental -0.82 2003 · Bobbie Williams · incremental -3.93 2004 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.03 2004 · Corey Simon · incremental +0.24 2004 · Jermane Mayberry · incremental +0.27 2004 · Todd Pinkston · incremental +0.72 2004 · Ike Reese · incremental +1.00 2004 · Tra Thomas · incremental +1.07 2004 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +1.26 2004 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.34 2004 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +3.30 2005 · Koy Detmer · incremental +0.09 2005 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.29 2005 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +0.30 2005 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +1.37 2005 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +1.44 2005 · N.D. Kalu · incremental -0.43 2006 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +0.37 2006 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +0.39 2006 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.51 2006 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +3.34 2007 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +0.29 2007 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.45 2007 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +0.48 2008 · Tra Thomas · incremental +0.49 2008 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +0.52 2008 · Brian Dawkins · incremental +1.46 2009 · Jeremiah Trotter · incremental +0.19 2009 · Donovan McNabb · incremental +1.27 McCrary -5.2 Dunn -2.8 Dunn -0.9 Robinson -1.8 Dunn -1.0 Rossum -3.7 Trotter +3.2 Trotter +1.5 Dawkins +3.4 Taylor +1.5 Dawkins +3.4 Williams -3.9 Dawkins +3.3 Dawkins +3.3 1995 9 players 1996 14 players 1997 21 players 1998 21 players 1999 24 players 2000 26 players 2001 21 players 2002 17 players 2003 14 players 2004 9 players 2005 6 players 2006 4 players 2007 3 players 2008 3 players 2009 2 players
How much retained production did Jason Dunn return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Jason Dunn since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1 +1.5 Model value above slot 55. McBride Trey McBride · model value +1.7 49. Goedert Dallas Goedert · model value +1.1 55. Freiermuth Pat Freiermuth · model value +0.9 50. Arroyo Elijah Arroyo · model value 0 50. Jr. Irv Smith Jr. · model value 0 49. Amaro Jace Amaro · model value -0.2 58. Schoonmaker Luke Schoonmaker · model value -0.4 53. Sinnott Ben Sinnott · model value -0.6 52. Niklas Troy Niklas · model value -0.7 55. McDonald Vance McDonald · model value -0.7 55. Williams Maxx Williams · model value -0.9 52. Sample Drew Sample · model value -1.1 54. Dunn Jason Dunn · model value -1.3 -1.3 Jason Dunn
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '07 0 13 26 38 51 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.