Terrible-4.57 contribution34th of 35 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Morten Andersen became a 26-season, 382-game NFL player after going #86. The retained-value model still ranks him 34th of 35 for Ken Meyer/staff because NO only got 196 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.57. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ken Meyer/staff's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
196
on drafting team · 382 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
56
modeled; full weighted AV 51
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
5
7 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
2 AP1
3 full-career · AP2 context 2
All-Decade
2
context only
Did this pick move Ken Meyer/staff's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ken Meyer/staff pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Morten Andersen totals -4.57. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMorten AndersenGM total -6.3Morten Andersen by season -5.2
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (26 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
1982
NO
8
0
—
—
0
—
1983
NO
16
0
—
—
4
—
1984
NO
16
0
—
—
4
—
1985
NO
16
0
—
—
7
—
✓
·
1986
NO
16
0
—
—
6
—
✓
★
1987
NO
12
0
—
—
5
—
✓
★
1988
NO
16
0
—
—
3
—
✓
1989
NO
16
0
—
—
3
—
1990
NO
16
0
—
—
5
—
1991
NO
16
0
—
—
5
—
1992
NO
16
0
—
—
6
—
✓
·
1993
NO
16
0
—
—
5
—
1994
NO
16
0
—
—
3
—
1995
ATL
16
0
—
—
5
—
1996
ATL
16
0
—
—
3
—
1997
ATL
16
0
—
—
4
—
1998
ATL
16
0
—
—
3
—
1999
ATL
16
0
—
—
2
—
2000
ATL
16
0
—
—
4
—
2001
NYG
16
0
—
—
4
—
2002
KC
14
0
—
—
4
—
2003
KC
16
0
—
—
3
—
2004
MIN
16
0
—
—
3
—
2005
—
0
0
—
—
0
—
2006
ATL
14
0
—
—
3
—
2007
ATL
14
0
—
—
3
—
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
