Antonio Brown
Steelers, 2010. Pick 199 was Brady, pick 196 was Terrell Davis, pick 86 was a sixth-round Central Michigan receiver who became the best WR of his decade. Then everything else.
WR·pick 86
Drafted by BUF — GM Bill Polian · Kutztown (PA)
1985
Steelers, 2010. Pick 199 was Brady, pick 196 was Terrell Davis, pick 86 was a sixth-round Central Michigan receiver who became the best WR of his decade. Then everything else.
Trained on every pick through 1984, the model gave a wide receiver at #86 a 10.5% chance in 1985.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 14.3% · 2027 model: 12.8%