WR·pick 5
Drafted by BUF · Clemson
1979
WR is the single column that has darkened the most this century. In 1994 a wideout at #5 was a reach. By 2024 it was Marvin Harrison Jr., and three of the next five WRs went in the top 12. The pre-1994 chart had its own WR run (Tim Brown #6, 1988; Andre Rison #22, 1989; Jerry Rice #16, 1985), but never this dense at the top.
Trained on every pick through 1978, the model gave a wide receiver at #5 a 8.3% chance in 1979.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 13.4% · 2027 model: 10.7%