WR·pick 1
Drafted by NE — GM Patrick Sullivan · Nebraska
1984
Only two WRs have ever gone #1 overall: Irving Fryar (Patriots, 1984) and Keyshawn Johnson (Jets, 1996) — and nobody since. With Chase (#5, 2021), Harrison Jr. (#4, 2024), and Burden / McMillan-tier prospects in the pipeline, the next one feels closer than it has in 30 years.
Trained on every pick through 1983, the model gave a wide receiver at #1 a 4.8% chance in 1984.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 8.6% · 2027 model: 1.2%