TE·pick 6
Drafted by PHI · USC
1973
49ers, 2006. The first top-10 TE since 1989. The cell already had Charle Young (Eagles, 1973) and Kellen Winslow II (Browns, 2004), but Davis's pick reopened the position — followed in short order by Olsen, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Pitts. Round-1 TEs went from a curiosity to a position type.
Trained on every pick through 1972, the model gave a tight end at #6 a 3.6% chance in 1973.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 12.6% · 2027 model: 2.5%