TE · pick 4 — first ever tight end at #4 (2021)

TE·pick 4

FIRST TE EVER DRAFTED AT #4

Kyle Pitts

Drafted by ATL — GM Terry Fontenot · Florida

2021

Editor's note

Kyle Pitts and the TE ceiling

Falcons, 2021. The highest TE has gone since Riley Odoms went #5 to Denver in 1972. Pitts was supposed to break the ceiling — instead he reset the conversation about whether TE can ever be a top-5 pick at all. Cell #4 of the TE column has one occupant in 60 drafts.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2020, the model gave a tight end at #4 a 1.6% chance in 2021.

Tight end at #4, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 11.9% · 2027 model: 1.9%

Surrounding picks · 2021 draft

#1QBTrevor LawrenceJAX — GM Trent Baalke
#2QBZach WilsonNYJ — GM Joe Douglas
#3QBTrey LanceSF — GM John Lynch
#5WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#6WRJaylen WaddleMIA — GM Chris Grier
#7OGPenei SewellDET — GM Brad Holmes
#8CBJaycee HornCAR — GM Scott Fitterer
#9CBPatrick Surtain IIDEN — GM George Paton

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart