Andy Martin | almart.in

NFL DRAFTIGAMI

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TE·pick 169

FIRST TE EVER DRAFTED AT #169

Jay Carroll

Drafted by TB — GM Phil Krueger · Minnesota

1984

5
TEs drafted at #169 in NFL history
most recent: Riley Nowakowski (PIT, 2026)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1983, the model gave a tight end at #169 a 6.5% chance in 1984.

Tight end at #169, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

19801990200020102020 0%12.7% 1984: 6.5%

Peak: 12.7% · 2027 model: 7.6%

Surrounding picks · 1984 draft

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

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